Ms Share Discussion Threads

[gswredland] 01/4/2006 12:52

Always interesting to hear your views CR.
I really do need to ock some of these in my ISA

[cockneyrebel] 01/4/2006 11:40

well 7.7p eps in H1, say they do 10p in H2 = 17.7p eps this year come June results as being very achievable.

When they have been growing earnings at 100% pa for several years, 22p eps next year looks nailed on, 25p looks likely imo.

22p on a meagre forward PE of 12 is 264p. At the results in June there's going to be a big wake up call imo, if not before.

By Nov interims I think they'll have H1 earnings of 12p+ and by then punters are going to believe 25p eps or more for 2007 - just a PE of 10 then will be 250p.

Remember these have several years growth at 100%, they have no debt to speak of, they keep buying back shares, they pay around a 2% yield this year and they have a huge order for the new gun barrels going forward and probably more to come and are diversified into three divisions.

Compare to these:

GDWN - fully listed, no forecasts, small and illiquid, 30% earnings growth,
- trades on an historic PE of 18.

AVG - forward PE of 11, growth and balance sheet nothing like MSI.

CGS - forward PE 15, pedestrian growth.

To be honest the most absolute carp engineering companies are trading on a PE higher than MSI !

If MSI was on an average rating they would be over 300p now.

The market will wake up at some point - I can wait, I'll be holding plenty when the crowd hit the buy button.

CR

[gswredland] 01/4/2006 11:05

Year end forecast for these then chaps?
240?

[cockneyrebel] 31/3/2006 21:44

I'd say June results.

But these have been tipped several times and I bet tipsters take the chance to tip again before the results for maximum brownie points.

Incredible that these are down 10% from those fab results on peanut volume net sells.

CR

[rogerbridge] 31/3/2006 20:34

Any idea when are we likely to get some more company news?
A bored but content holder.

[cockneyrebel] 31/3/2006 13:03

:-)

CR

[choppa] 31/3/2006 12:24

Loner!! :-P

[cockneyrebel] 31/3/2006 12:17

Buy from the bored Scumdog, sell to the over-excited :-)

I'll be selling mine next year when all the press, tip sheets and punters are raving about several years earnings growth of 100% pa imo.

"How did we miss this one?" "Watch this baby fly", "Must do 30p eps next year after these results".............blah blah. All th sheep love to buy something thats up 40% and got all the crowd in it. Not interested at 40% lower and being on their own cos they don't get that cuddly part of a crowd getting it right feeling imo. Call me a loner but I'm a profitable loner! :-)

CR

[johnrxx99] 31/3/2006 11:55

Go on please, move down a bit as I've got some oil profits I'd like to spend.

[angora7] 30/3/2006 16:01

LOL scumdog! Give the poor guy a break, 3 more quarters to go yet in 2006!

[scumdog] 30/3/2006 01:29

What's this . . . a tip from CR that hasn't risen 50% this year? A blip I'm sure.

[gringostar] 30/3/2006 00:04

Because MSI is fully listed I have just moved my sons CTF into this, but at these levels I will have to buy some for myself.

[gringostar] 29/3/2006 23:48

2.3k bought and 6.7k sold and the price drops 5%.
There should be a good rise on the results in June.

[gringostar] 29/3/2006 14:39

I just called a fellow investor about this one and his is the next buy trade after mine and he paid nearly 2p less than me!
My sons CTF.

[xdavid] 29/3/2006 14:03

Can I borrow your crystal ball, might come in useful when thinking about what to sell to buy more MSI?

Looking good for my ISA top up anyway ;-)

[gringostar] 29/3/2006 13:58

148 - 151.85 with Square Gain.
Just bought some.
Xdavid - it was Yahoo showing -7p wrong as usual but it gave me a prod to buy so good old Yahoo!

[xdavid] 29/3/2006 13:48

-7p ??

I have -4p (just this moment ticked down from -3)

I think you are looking at the offer price compared to yesterdays mid?

[gringostar] 29/3/2006 11:31

The market hasn't -7p!!

[rivaldo] 29/3/2006 07:47

A bit late, but Petrolworld have just noticed MSI's interims FYI:


"UK: Global MSI Record Profit & Positive Year
A profit before taxation of £2m (2004 - £1.54m) was achieved on revenue of £19.30m (2004 - £16.41m) for the twenty-six weeks to 29 October 2005.

Michael Bell Chariman of MS has reported a positive year in which commitment to investing in the business, through both capital investment and product development programmes, continued to serve the business well and placed MS in a good position to take advantage of the many global opportunities available. The outcome was escalating levels of activity that culminated in both higher revenues and profits for the Group.

The three operating divisions - defence, forgings and petrol station forecourt structures - each achieved higher revenue and enhanced profitability, highlighting the improving quality of the underlying substance and operating performances of the individual businesses.

The cumulative value of the Group's order book has grown progressively in line with the upturn in business activity that coincided with some superior
production processes coming on stream.

PetrolWorld 170306"

[johnrxx99] 27/3/2006 11:39

CR - I don't disagree but thought the BA example was not such a good one. I'm using the same argument myself on a few like SYR. Most contracts allow for cost increases outside their control but, looking back in time for experience, such rises will in due course affect the whole economy and that is where the downside will come, imo.

But not today, what a cracker (heavy in resources and they are steaming)

[cockneyrebel] 27/3/2006 11:19

johnrxx99 - explain BPI then, highly affected by fuel costs, moan about them time and again - profits rocketing. I could show you loads of them. All these companies moan about how bad the rise in fuel/energy costs are then they go to their customers and say 'sorry, we hate having to raise prices but it's energy you see'. The customer takes it because the other suppliers are saying the same. Excuse to raise prices imo.

I agree there are some that can't pass it on but in general I think it's the industries where there is little added value over the energy or commodity prices which they pay. Look at steel companies - the energy used there but they pass it on and more.

I agree, perception is often a greater worry than the actual affect - think that's why a lot of these companies with high energy costs are surprising to the upside.

CR

[xdavid] 27/3/2006 11:01

There are definitely some companies affected (see AFC RNS today re copper price), although they may well be using rising raw material and energy costs as an excuse for general inefficiency. Companies in highly competitive areas and running large debt are not going to feel they can automatically pass on these costs (and real costs they are as term energy contracts come up for renewal) and any existing debt will weigh heavily on them.

However, MSI work in niche areas and that includes their castings division. Previous results stated that they had been affected by both material and energy costs but the effects had been mitigated by both forward buying of materials (hence net cash became working capital) and the passing on of costs to customers.

I was really just using concerns over energy costs as an example of how a perceived concern for one division of a mixed group could pull down the valuation of the whole, whether genuine concern or not - I did not mean that I thought any concern was actually affecting MSI. I dont and I indeed think that MSI will continue to flourish in its new lean form.

-david