Ms Share Discussion Threads

[johndoe23] 17/10/2023 10:20

Can't buy anything meaningful

[yasrub] 16/10/2023 16:46

Good to see effective tax planning by the FD.

[cockerhoop] 16/10/2023 15:57

Shanklin,

MSI actually ousted the incumbent BA. to take the MK38 Mod 4 contract with the US Navy. The performance of their 30mm cannon mount is world class if not world leading. Winning the US Navy competition should help overseas Naval sales in time. They've certainly already picked up some US foreign military aid sales.

On the land based side they have some excellent partners. MARSS provide a world class CUAS control system, SAAB and APS likewise with radar. With the anti-drone capabilities about to be field tested in Ukraine it will be interesting to see if any feedback emerges. I'm certainly seeing multiple clips of drones causing extensive damage on both sides so counter drone systems are certainly in demand.

[yasrub] 16/10/2023 13:15

Perhaps worth considering the profile of the board with respect to age and length of service. I guess there will be a time and place for an approach (not just yet!) and those in the sector will be aware.

[harrywilliam] 16/10/2023 12:51

Surely MSI are a take over target

[shanklin] 16/10/2023 12:47

Have just read the last 200+ posts.

Obviously the defence division is key for MSI and there are several people posting here with considerable expertise of the company.

Given that MSI is a miniscule company when compared with competitors such as BA., do you see the defence success as sustainable or something which larger peers will quickly emulate. Presumably MSI are more entreprenarial and fleet of foot which will help against very bureaucratic competitors.... ....albeit they may just try to buy the defence divsion.

MSI seem to be in a real sweet spot with what they are doing defence wise so what might that mean in EPS terms 3 to 5 years out?

[yasrub] 13/10/2023 09:23

Great post Norbert and puts into real terms the value of orders received in the last 10 months - simply superb. Re Naval contracts I would like to think the maintenance contract to 30/6/28 indicates that there will be a steady flow of future orders.

[fft] 13/10/2023 09:14

With a range of 2km, to construct an overlapping defensive wall for the major cities would take hundreds of units. Or, if they are intended to be deployed just behind the front line even more.

[valhamos] 13/10/2023 08:35

Paladin: Ukraine's New Drone Destroyer Arriving Just in Time for Winter

[...]

www.kyivpost.com/analysis/22656

(tried to insert a clickable link but for some strange reason ADVFN is not allowing it)

[cockerhoop] 12/10/2023 17:48

I'm currently walking the dog then out for dinner but have a look at the H1/H2 splits for the last 3 years. Suggests to me the operational gearing could be really strong once base costs are covered.

[74tom] 12/10/2023 16:39

Fair enough - I'm assuming this info was disclosed at the AGM. Any guide on gross margin?

[74tom] 12/10/2023 15:32

Further to the above,

I note that the December RNS states;

"Further to this update, we are pleased to announce that we have signed a contract with an overseas customer"

Why would they use the phrase 'overseas customer' if the order was coming from the UK gov via an IFU?

[74tom] 12/10/2023 15:01

@Norbert, appreciate that you are the resident expert here, however I came to a different conclusion after some digging. I don't see how MSI could RNS a signed £22.4m contract 2 months before the first IFU was announced?

"The first IFU package was announced on 15 February 2023: Ukraine to receive multi-million pound capability boost from international fund. First deliveries from this package have now arrived in country."




The previous IFU appears to have been this one announced on 13th June;



That would line up with the 22nd June MSI snippet re. the £54m order received that was snuck out in the full year results. It would also explain why the UK Gov have name dropped MSI & Terrahawk Paladin (generating a lot of publicity on Twitter), as £54m is the vast majority of the £70m quoted...

Re. the new £100m fund, it looks to be related to mine clearance rather than air defence, as per the below extract from Shapps;

"and more than £100 million of new equipment pledged to give Ukrainian soldiers what they need to breach Russia’s deadly minefields."

[norbert colon] 12/10/2023 11:41

Well yes it’s the Dec 2022 contract but we didnt know officially it was going to Ukraine. It seems to form part (we believe) of the prior GBP70m assistance deal.


The new GBP100m contract as of yesterday states or implies that it will include further air defence kit so I imagine that if this includes further Paladin orders we may get a further RNS from the company.


They are not the clearest of statements I must admit.

[74tom] 12/10/2023 11:12

@Norbert, as far as I can tell this Ukraine contract hasn't been announced to the market, right?

[norbert colon] 11/10/2023 20:24

Useful thanks.

[valhamos] 11/10/2023 18:54

Nothing we don't already know, but good to see coverage in a Ukrainian defence industry website.

[norbert colon] 11/10/2023 08:15

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/major-new-package-of-support-for-ukraines-counter-offensive-announced-by-grant-shapps

[cockerhoop] 10/10/2023 17:39

I certainly see an asymmetric response between the share price reaction to the initial VSHORAD contract of £22.4m (up £3) to the subsequent modest rise in view of the multiple most recent contracts announced ie the 2nd VSHORAD contract of £54m and the 3 US Naval contracts which confirm MSI is embedded into the US Naval program for 5+ years.

The results in December could provide the step change in financial results Michael Bell has been alluding to.

Telling that Michael O'Connell today exercised options and chose not to sell shares to pay the tax (again!!).

[74tom] 10/10/2023 15:51

Excellent, thanks for confirming. You do get the feeling that the market makers are holding shares at this level pending the financials landing - a re-rate appears well overdue given the recent contract news. Up just 10.5% TYD (£11m effective increase in market cap) despite transformational progress being made. Even a large cap like BAE is up ~21%. To develop products like this off the back of ~£10m R&D spend over the last 5 years is exceptional.

[cockerhoop] 10/10/2023 12:51

Tom,

Yep, I understand it to be the former (ie £22.4m contract). The timeline in the tweet is consistent with the company narrative from the Agm but obviously doesn't confirm delivery. Agree the contract being recognised in H124 should transform the Interim results.

[74tom] 10/10/2023 11:00

Anyone notice this tweet from a few weeks back?



Disclosed in the comments;

"Flak is back! UK naval gun firm MSI teams up with Polish radar/C-UAS company APS to produce this 30mm hard kill drone air defence system. Set to enter service with 'unnamed country' in next 2 weeks. #DSEI23"

From my research I assume this relates to either the £22m contract from December 22 that was pending payment at the full year results, or the £54m contract announced in the full year results. Either way, has to be a positive for the upcoming December interims...