Mpac Share Discussion Threads

[hydrus] 10/1/2020 10:19

A truly devastating 2.8% fall after a circa 30% rise in the first 6 trading days of the year. I see why you have painted such a dramatic picture.

[my retirement fund] 10/1/2020 09:35

Look out! Timber !!!

[castleford tiger] 09/1/2020 19:04

Oh dear filter on

[wton1] 09/1/2020 13:28

Olé zooma zooma zooma
Olé zooma zooma chief
Drink it down you Zulu warrior
Drink it down you Zulu chief
Drink it down you Zulu warrior
Drink it down you Zulu chief, chief, chief!

[castleford tiger] 09/1/2020 13:26

wton1

weak sterling IS GOOD FOR MPAC.

Try harder

Tiger

[wton1] 09/1/2020 13:05

Sterling continues to rise… will it last?


The pound rose again yesterday rising to €1.1660 against the euro, and hitting $1.32 against the US dollar, which is the highest it’s been in 3 weeks.


Will cause sales to slow also

[castleford tiger] 09/1/2020 12:53

wton1.........Really you need to try harder.

I assume you mean this year?

tiger

[wton1] 09/1/2020 12:50

Profits forecast to fall next year

BEWARE OF THT

[bwm2] 09/1/2020 12:13

Broker couldn't buy the volume at quoted prices and commented as this reason

[bwm2] 09/1/2020 11:56

Broker couldn't buy the volume at quoted prices and commented as this reason

[arregius] 09/1/2020 11:35

How do you know they are chasing stock

[bwm2] 09/1/2020 09:53

A few brokers are chasing stock so had to pay 257p for 9875 shares

[andyview] 09/1/2020 08:56

I’ve added s few more today following on from an initial buy yesterday. Like the story here...

Gla

[castleford tiger] 09/1/2020 08:50

More chance to buy. I have bought 20k this morning again.
tiger

[wton1] 09/1/2020 08:48

Looks like its going over 300p within days

[castleford tiger] 09/1/2020 08:42

260to buy any second now

[castleford tiger] 09/1/2020 08:32

don't trust the data on here.
bought 5000 at 248.40 at 8.20 showing as a sell.

It was my buy.

bwm2
That's the great thing its off radar for most. Even Paul Scott

good luck tiger

[bwm2] 09/1/2020 07:47

Tiger

I concur and it is my nap of the year.

I was an investor in dart sub 50p but very regrettably took a quick easy option and sold to settle an IHT obligation rather than sell property. It was a tough decision when to buy in again so I don't wish to replicate with this share.

When I purchased Mpac on Monday, my broker commented "I'd not come across this Company until you started buying" - that made me smile

[castleford tiger] 09/1/2020 07:32

bwm2

It could certainly be one of the shares of the year ,as this is a 100m company in my opinion.

I am happy to wait for the market to catch up.......like its started to do at DART.

Similar situation as both business are growing fast and getting an idea on future earnings is very difficult. ( a nice situation to be in )

I will review my holding when we start with a 4.
Tiger

[bwm2] 09/1/2020 07:12

Tiger
Was watching as well for a long time and I think that I started purchasing at exactly the same time as you ie at 168p. I was at Newbury races and it was definitely the best investment decision of that day
Thankyou for your shared insight

[castleford tiger] 09/1/2020 06:58

thanks Phar

Always difficult as you cannot follow everything but this has been flagged as far too cheap for the last 9 months./
It even dropped to 170 area towards the end of last year which was my trigger for buying again.
Hard to buy it started to move and I finished around high 190`s buying.

Tiger

[phar lap] 08/1/2020 23:45

Paul Scott on Stockopedia



MPAC (LON:MPAC)
Share price: 238p (up 15% today, at 12:18)
No. shares: 20.2m
Market cap: £48.1m

Full year trading update

Mpac Group plc, a global leader in 'Make, Pack, Monitor and Service' high speed packaging and automation solutions, provides a pre-close trading update (unaudited) for the year ended 31 December 2019.
This used to be called Molins, making tobacco packing machines. Presumably the name change, and more generic self-description, was intended to put PC/ethical investors off the scent! EDIT - I'm told that the tobacco machinery division was sold some time ago, so looks like that isn't relevant any more. End of edit.

Continuing the theme of companies out-performing & getting repeated earnings upgrades, look at this! Earnings forecasts (broker consensus) has almost tripled in the last year - spectacular stuff;

This begs 2 questions;

1) What's going on to drive such an outstanding improvement in profitability? and,

2) Is it sustainable, or just a one-off good year? (EDIT: or maybe a large customer programme with a finite end point?)

I won't have time here today to drill down to that level of detail, but am certainly going to be printing off some broker notes, and doing some deeper research, and will report back at a later date.

Positive update today - this sounds great, coming on top of the very substantial forecast increases already;

On 5 September 2019, the Group reported that its profits for FY19 were expected to be significantly above the Board's and market expectations, with the momentum gained earlier in the year continuing throughout the second half of the year.

The Board is delighted to announce that since that date, momentum in the business has continued to accelerate and we expect to report a full year trading performance ahead of these upgraded expectations. This is primarily as the result of a strong Q4 order intake and accelerated project execution.

Outlook - this sounds positive for continued strong performance in 2020;

"I am pleased with the overall business development and the high level of performance delivered by our global colleagues which has enabled us to report a further trading performance upgrade for 2019.

Order intake and revenue growth have continued for both Original Equipment and Services and the Group will close the year with a strong order book for execution in 2020.

I am confident that we will be able to report an excellent financial performance for 2019 and improved outlook for 2020 which gives us confidence for the future progress of the business."

Pension deficit - is large still, so this needs to be factored into the valuation - i.e. it's the reason the PER is low. That said, if the underlying business is now trading its socks off, then the pension deficit becomes far less of an issue.

My opinion - I've not looked at this company properly for over 3 years, so am not going to rush out an ill-informed opinion today (that doesn't usually stop me, I hear you cry!).

However, today's update, and the latest note from Equity Development, sound very interesting. Therefore I'm going to flag this as definitely worthy of a closer look. It's tempting to buy a few shares straight away, and then do the detailed research later, when something crops up that has such strong earnings momentum as this.

[castleford tiger] 08/1/2020 22:36

Gary
Can’t disagree much but we paid 15 m plus up to 3 more for Lambert.
It was cheap in my opinion.
Cash shown is after pension costs and the amount may well reduce.
Strong cash generation is expected over the next few years and we could be around 15 m net cash at year end just past.
I expect upgrades once we see the numbers in March and that will give us a view on first Quarter.
I base my 350/450 on what we know today but with Eps going to 50 or 60 p not far out even your 650 might look light.
So I will raise the bar to £10 by 2024
I was the first with DTG and I have consistently said the market has missed this.
Buying now gives an easy 50/100 p a share within a year probably before.
The best and biggest rises are still ahead. No boat been missed today was just a signal
Tiger

[gary1966] 08/1/2020 20:29

Arregius,

Not sure why you say that all cash flow is paid out to cover pension payments. One of the attractions of this company for me is its’ cash generating capability. They paid out just over £10m for the Lambert acquisition out of accumulated free cash flow and still had a very healthy cash balance at the half year stage. Cash balance would have been even better if it hadn’t been tied up in working capital due to expansion. This has probably unravelled to some extent in the second half and I am expecting a big increase in net cash at the year end which will reduce further a very small cash adjusted P/e. Castleford Tiger can see this going to £4, personally I can see a case for fair value at £6 with no imagination needed.

GLA

[arregius] 08/1/2020 18:51

https://www.hoefliger.com/ MPAC aims to become like hoefliger.com so for those holders like me us is good to start seeing what this guys do so as to gain a deeper insight into mpacs business going forward.