Mountview Estates Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 06/2/2015 07:04

MTVW is the top-rated tip in Simon Thompson's "Bargain Shares" portfolio for 2015.
This was published yesterday evening.

He says nothing we don't already know here, but he has a lot of followers - I don't see the share price falling this morning.

[eggbaconandbubble] 05/2/2015 08:08

The Sun has got his hat on, hip hip hip hooray!

[jonwig] 05/2/2015 07:35

Normally don't post full RNSs, but MTVW's are so brief I might as well:

Mountview Estates PLC ("the Group"), publishes its Interim Management Statement covering the period from the beginning of the Group's financial year, 1 April 2014, to date.

Turnover is up by 18%, Gross profit by 41% and Profit before tax by 47%. Earnings per share increased by 48% during the third quarter compared with the same period last year, although this was at a slower rate than during the first half of the Group's financial year.

The Group continues to make good purchases and remains well funded.

[greatgiginthesky] 04/2/2015 15:45

Sure, egg. I was hypothesizing that some, but not all, family members would want cash and some would want paper. If Grainger make a cash only bid, then CGT will apply to all, but if they make a paper bid then the shareholders can make their own decision to sell their new paper or keep it according to their own wishes and CGT position.
On the matter of price, I think that Mountview's profits and NAV per share are most important - dividends and gearing less so.

[eggbaconandbubble] 04/2/2015 12:17

Grainger have much higher gearing than Mountview. I'm not sure that they would be that favourable to MTVW share holders if an offer involved paper.

[greatgiginthesky] 04/2/2015 12:03

With earnings for 2014 likely to be around 800p per share I think that a total dividend of 400p is slightly optimistic. I would plump for 100+200=300p if I were a betting man, which I am not, wait, I buy shares so I must be!

[jonwig] 04/2/2015 07:07

greatgig - following the doubling of the interim, I think there's a reasonable chance the total dividend for the current year will be 100+300=400p against 50+150=200p last year.
Certainly a maintained final would be a disappointment.

This would also fit in with the idea that the company is returning cash rather than chasing more expensive regulated tenant properties.

[greatgiginthesky] 03/2/2015 16:23

The right buyer has to offer shares and that will do away with the CGT problem. However, Grainger's shares trade on a yield of 1.22% and Mountview's is 2.22% so a reduction in divi income would occur.
A cash offer around £150 would leave the family with oodles more in their bank accounts than seemed likely a couple of years ago, even after taking a CGT hit.
GRI has been in the news quite a bit recently and is in quite an acquisitive mood.

[eggbaconandbubble] 03/2/2015 09:10

Chri5, Sorry! Belated thanks there. I think I have been watching the price more than this BB.
Councils are ghastly institutions. I spent 18 years managing my own small portfolio and in the last few years came to the conclusion that landlords are easy pickings for bereaucratic 'hits', because they are a sitting target and the vast expansion in the private landlord sector now makes it a lucrative one.
Along with selling my lot the CGT bills have been 'not good' (this has also got worse in recent tax years) which brings me to think that the major shareholders of MTVW are wanting an 'out' but the CGT is clearly utmost in their minds.
They will have taken the best advice but still.....
That makes a sale difficult cos they need to find not just a buyer but the right buyer who will help mitigate this situation.
Still all in MOO!
PS. Apply for the job...WTF!

[eggbaconandbubble] 13/1/2015 15:34

Chris5, HMO = houses in multiple occupation? Right? can you please quickly explain. Thanks

[chri5 wright] 13/1/2015 14:54

Jonwig. To answer your question....why make a hurdle difficult to jump?
_ no gold bath taps, just discomfort ( with in the law obviously ).
I wouldn't worry about mansion tax, the main concern would
be the local councils hunger to print cash, by the changing of
the local planning requirements to create ''HMO's'' - quite
disgraceful, and the real risk here.

eggbaconandbubble. I am way too small to be of interest to these guys. A few years ago my ego would have had me place a call, and it did cross my mind. But I'm simply too small and my business growth is solid but not earth shattering. I doubt I'd get a second interview. But tempting, yes...

Chris

[eggbaconandbubble] 13/1/2015 14:42

chri5, have you applied for the position or are you on for a reverse takeover?

[jonwig] 13/1/2015 14:39

Interesting, chri5, that you're in the business.

Would it be fair comment on my part that regulated tenancy properties are usually kept to a pretty basic level of maintenance (ie. within the law but no gold bath-taps), so the potential uplift from refurbishment is disproportionate?

It did occur to me that Labour's proposed mansion tax would impact, but the carrying value of MTVW's trading properties is around £150,000 as opposed to a proposed tax threshold of £2m.

[chri5 wright] 13/1/2015 14:01

I am happy to be in this stock, long term. My background is that I run a much MUCH MUCH smaller version of this company, so I know its true value. I do suspect that it will come down on thin trading after such a climb ( which was also built on thin grains of sand ). I am not prepared to try second guess the peaks and troughs, I'm in and I'm staying in _ come what may...I'm just saying, it could well tank for a time, when news & excitement runs out. I hope it does.......as I have cash.

[eggbaconandbubble] 13/1/2015 13:02

Next leg up or sucker rally?

[greatgiginthesky] 13/1/2015 12:51

Happier now Chris? Up 425p as I type.

[jonwig] 13/1/2015 06:54

From the recent trades data the deal sizes here have been very small, so these are the people who bought on the way from around 75 on the back of tips in IC, Michael Walters, etc. Some have take profits, some are panicking. Typical behaviour I think, and the resistance on the chart should prove pretty solid.

Of course, there's the chance of a positive surprise (new CEO, bid) and they should issue an IMS in the first half of February ... all of three sentences last year!!

[chri5 wright] 13/1/2015 05:31

Because long ago I gave up the trading aspect of investing, I never managed to predict the peaks and troughs, and only made Redmayne Bentley rich. I buy and hold key companies only now. This is one, but I'm sure traders should get out. I will stay in, as a failed trader. Chris

[brahmsnliszt] 12/1/2015 20:35

Chris , out of interest, if you are convinced it will slip a long way down but u remain a long term holder, why don't u sell now and buy back a lot lower?

[chri5 wright] 12/1/2015 16:43

I knew this would come off the boil. my bet is it will slip down a long way now. anyhow. I am a long term ( disappointed ) holder.

Chris

[jonwig] 29/12/2014 11:59

greatgig - I'd think there are plenty of retired senior people who can manage companies in old age. (Also plenty who cause companies to die, but we won't be going there, I hope!)
And I'd think that's the sort we want, as younger ambitious ones will have too many bright ideas.

[greatgiginthesky] 25/12/2014 12:37

Been away for a month and nice to return to this board. Speculating:-

A new CEO would want an answer to the question: will I still have a job in 5 years time, or will the family sell out? That might be why there is no new CEO yet.

Grainger could afford to buy Mtvw - it's just a matter of price (i.e. the discount to NAV) and Grainger issuing new shares.

I can't recall seeing the word 'momentum' being applied to Mtvw's share price before, lol, but there is no harm in cashing in after the recent good run. I will continue to hold for the reasons that I don't see the share price plummeting from here (settling down a little maybe) and there is no chance of a reduced dividend. As I say, the share price has had a good run recently and I cannot but help thinking that there is an endgame in the offing. Maybe not in 2015, but if in the next 2 years then that will be quite quick in Mtvw terms.

GLA

[brahmsnliszt] 23/12/2014 12:13

Took some off the table last two days. Not sure if momentum is there in the short term

[chri5 wright] 18/12/2014 17:12

can I apply for the job....I have some experience!

how hard can it be to run this company- it probably runs its self?

chris