Motif Bio Share Discussion Threads

[trotterstrading] 27/4/2015 13:10

Excellent research note, courtesy of 'Poetical' on the LSE thread, I would encourage anyone with an interest in Motif to read this:

hxxps://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/6088200/Share%20Research/MotifBio_Research_PoeticalTrader.pdf

[trotterstrading] 24/4/2015 09:18

I think we could have a fairly easy run up to 40-50p IMO, we remain significantly undervalued compared to peers at similar stage of development

[dosser2] 23/4/2015 11:33

Nice rise today

[trotterstrading] 22/4/2015 17:05

Just took a position in Motif @ 25p - crazy valuation IMO!

It reminds me of OPTI, a stock I took a position in shortly after listing, though it's not quite in the same sector (food rather than pharma) I can see parallels, I think we could see a similar story unfold here, novel treatment, significant demand, huge market and relative near term commercialisation.

Good luck follow holders!

[cottoner] 21/4/2015 19:05

Ten ways to kill our antibiotics complacency
Jim O’Neill

Published at 12:01AM, April 21 2015

Public ignorance about the worldwide danger of superbugs could cost millions of lives

If we cannot find new, more effective antibiotics and reduce our need for them, it’s likely that up to ten million people a year across the world will die prematurely by 2050 and the cumulative loss of global GDP between now and then could be $100 trillion, more than the current size of the world economy.

Last year, David Cameron asked me to lead a review into antimicrobial resistance (AMR), which will propose global solutions to tackle this problem. It will still be relevant whether or not there is a change of government next month, when its findings will be presented to the prime minister — whoever he may be.

Ahead of our final report, here are ten things that need to be done:

Embark on a massive global PR exercise I was speaking at a big private equity event and asked how many of the 300-plus audience knew what AMR is. Two hands went up. When I expanded it to “antimicrobial resistance”, it was about 30 hands. A mass social media campaign around the world is needed. While antibiotics are crucial to helping us maintain healthy lives, they are not a panacea. We need to stop using them like sweets and only take them when absolutely necessary. Then make sure we take the recommended dosage and not stop as soon as we start to feel better.

Wash our hands more It may seem obvious but one of the simplest and most powerful ways to avoid bugs is still to wash our hands regularly with soap, especially after a visit to the toilet. Premier league football clubs should take the lead with a major upgrade to their toilet facilities.

Stop using antibiotics for animal growth promoters In many countries, the biggest problem is not the drugs we use ourselves but what we give to livestock, partly in an effort to improve the output of our agricultural industries. This is a huge challenge in the US, India and China and will become even bigger as emerging economies grow faster and the demand for meat catches up. Shouldn’t we restrict — or even ban — antibiotics as an animal growth promoter?

Explore the scope for using vaccines Can vaccines or other alternative therapies be developed to give humans and animals sufficient antibodies to preclude the need for regular antibiotics? Therapies can also be created by revisiting failed antibiotics or combining existing ones to break drug resistance.

Dramatically improve the surveillance of resistance The paucity of data around the world about the true state of resistance, not only in the emerging world but also developed countries, is astonishing. In last month’s budget the chancellor announced a £195 million fund for helping emerging countries to develop their surveillance systems. The UK, other countries and major donors should make this a priority.

State-of-the-art diagnostics When our lives are increasingly spent on hand-held gadgets, measuring our calorie count or sleep patterns, it’s time we had such technology in GP surgeries. It would stop doctors guessing what we need and stop us demanding antibiotics. Let’s implement “Google for doctors” all over the world.

Improve the numbers and pay of those studying AMR It is striking how few people work in the field of antimicrobial resistance compared with other areas of medical research and how (relatively) poorly they are paid. This is easy to solve assuming governments are as serious about solving the problem as they claim.

A global innovation fund There has been an alarming drop in innovation over the past three decades. Low prices for drugs and restricted demand makes it less appealing for Big Pharma. This in turn acts as a disincentive to venture capital and start-up firms. We propose a global fund to finance more research, fund more start-ups and take risks. The funding should involve the pharma industry itself.

A priority for China’s G20 leadership China is hosting the G20 in 2016, a novel and historic moment. Solving AMR should be at the top of their agenda given how big an issue it is for China itself.

Let’s have some big new drugs Developing ten highly effective drugs in the next decade or so would cost less than $25 billion a decade. While this is a lot of money, it is only 0.03 per cent of global GDP and not much more than double the $10 billion that one leading global pharmaceutical company announced recently it would spend on buying back its own shares in just one year.

Many people have warned me of the complexity of solving the AMR problem. If we could act in these ten ways, the difficulty will fade.

Jim O’Neill is chairman of the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance and former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management

[the stigologist] 21/4/2015 09:35

where have all the rampers gone

oh trying to pump this pos on the lying conman pump and dump thread

[asturius101] 17/4/2015 14:04

A bit like your mum eh stig?

[the stigologist] 17/4/2015 10:27

down we go

[the stigologist] 17/4/2015 08:53

KMK another pos from AMP crashing today

[cottoner] 17/4/2015 08:48

Timbo003 - how about adding beaufort coverage to header. :-)

[timbo003] 17/4/2015 08:35

Link to "Directors Talk" video interview with Graham Lumsden CEO (April 16th) now in the header

[granada7] 16/4/2015 21:13

Thanks timboMakes it a good buy and hold.Seems to me like Stiggy has been regularly bummed by AIM to be quite so bitter on every thread.

[granada7] 16/4/2015 21:04

Stig....ever thought of seeing a shrink. Just an idea.

[timbo003] 16/4/2015 20:53

>>>Granada

Indeed, and why not.

Iclaprim may not be a potential multi billion dollar a year block-buster, but it could well achieve sales of $200 million (plus) and the project has been considerably de-risked with all the clinical and tox data behind it. Even if you assume that that it has only a 20% chance of regulatory success and it achieves sales of just $200m, that would correspond to risk adjusted sales of $40 million per annum

They could probably do a deal at this stage which involved largish milestone payments and say a 25% royalty if they go down the partnering route, then that gives them income of $10m / year (plus say $50m in one off milestone payments), that makes them look cheap to me.....and remember this would be a risk adjusted sales number assuming a 20% chance of success.

Worth adding that many investors in the IPO are not flippers and I am certainly not a flipper. The IPO shares qualify for EIS tax relief (effective price 14p/share) if they hold for 3 years. Therefore I (and I'm sure many other investors in the IPO) will hold for at least 3 years, otherwise we will lose the 6p/share tax break plus all the other EIS tax benefiots (see link in header for details)

[granada7] 16/4/2015 20:23

Thanks for that, as the CEO has said only a couple of days ago....a pharma tie up may pick up the funding requirements

[the stigologist] 16/4/2015 20:03

expect sub 20p here because the company will need to raise multi-millions and the only people who bought the ipo were flippers

[the stigologist] 16/4/2015 20:02

lying conman topinfo has stopped posting his lies and b.s. about this now

expect the small band of sheep who still follow him to start selling out as they wake up

[granada7] 16/4/2015 14:50

trotters

I think you have to be brave and buy when others are selling. I personally think any placement will be higher than the IPO Also if it is funded by a partner, then basically add your own amount to MTFBs mkt cap as a world pharma may take all the risk for a exclusive option pending the Phase III trials. So the MTFB risk could be very minimal.

[trotterstrading] 16/4/2015 14:48

It seems the talk of future funding requirements is scaring off the PI's, very short sighted IMO

[granada7] 16/4/2015 12:25

Motif Bio (MTFB.L, 28.50p) - Speculative Buy

Motif Bio, announced today that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has agreed to the proposed Phase 3 clinical development programme for the Company's lead product candidate, iclaprim. The Phase 3 programme is designed to obtain marketing approval for an intravenous formulation of iclaprim in the treatment of acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI) and hospital acquired bacterial pneumonia (HABP) caused by Gram positive pathogens, including resistant strains such as MRSA (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus) and MDRSP (multi-drug resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae). The FDA confirmed that two ABSSSI trials or one ABSSSI trial plus one HABP trial meeting their pre-specified primary endpoints are required for approval of iclaprim. Motif is working to determine the costs and timeline of these options.

Our view: It is quite exceptional to find an independent drug development company on AIM with a Phase 3 indication - by this time such prospects have nearly always found themselves absorbed into big pharma. Indeed, anyone searching for a peer group comparison would need to look to the US, where a few NASDAQ quotes can be found valuing such opportunities at, perhaps, ten-times or more that of Motif. As such, yesterday’s news is nothing short of dramatic. The FDA has, in fact, given two approvals - skin infection and pneumonia - for Motif proposed Phase 3 clinical development programme for the Company's lead product candidate, iclaprim. The emergence of multi-drug resistant bacteria has made antibiotics the global pharmaceutical development industry’s most urgent area of research and, importantly, Motif’s novel platform prospectively offers a range of further indications. Indeed, this under-utilized dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor (DHFRi) class, could in time become an integral part of hospital doctors' life-saving treatment strategies. So what next? From here, investors can expect exciting news flow as big pharma, keen to farm-in to its clinical development and commercialization start to get involved. This could produce large up-front phased payments direct to Motif along with an exceptional stream of royalties. Right now, Motif management is working to determine the costs and timeline of its various exciting options. Assuming that funds can be raised or a partnership can be entered into, the first Phase 3 trial for ABSSSI is expected to commence in the second half of 2015. Beaufort awards Motif a Speculative Buy recommendation.

[cottoner] 16/4/2015 10:36

Motif Bio confident about partner interest in Iclaprim
By Sarah Lowther

April 16 2015, 9:26am

Graham Lumsden, chief executive of Motif Bio (LON:MTFB), tells Proactive Investors he is confident about the path forward for Iclaprim. After a 'collaborative meeting' with the FDA, the American regulator gave the biopharmaceutical company the green light to begin phase 111 clinical trials on its next-generation antibiotic. Lumsden is now putting together a strategic business development plan looking at appropriate partners for one or both of the clinical trials to bring in upfront payments and satisfy funding requirements for the trials.

"confident that several partners will be very interested in speaking to us about iclaprim"

[the stigologist] 16/4/2015 08:56

breaking down to 20p

and then below no doubt

the KMK pump and dump is illustrative