Its easy to take ratings at face value when deciding what is cheap and what isn’t. I used to just go for pe’s less than 15, preferably 10 ish.
Individual businesses on low pe’s aren’t necessarily a bargain - unless they’re in a whole segment suffering together for some reason.
Its interesting to study some of the most successful businesses in the past. I’ve missed buying quite a few because the ratings seemed high. Unfortunately they never came down and I hadn’t considered the business model. |
Well, possibly. People do seem to like these things in the private space. You probably know my opinions by now, and I think it is a good business but a bit of a crossdresser and it ain't fooling me. I'd want it at half the price it is now so I doubt I'll be able to call myself a shareholder again 🥲 |
Haha ;-)
I do think that this, unlike many speculative takeover targets, will get taken out, for its customer base and semi monopoly. The US VC’s love that. Combined with what is very close to being recurring revenue.
I don’t know why there’s a puzzle over its valuation, but then again, understanding business models is a black art to many folk. |
Well done, it's a share I follow and you are welcome for piggybacking my research :) |
I thought you’d pop up here. |
Yump, yes, it was always likely to be filled as discussed.
They were not able to get someone to share the plane with as it is 'coming in empty' according to them. They are trying, but they have none for now. They might do it, but I would have thought you are looking at a very small base of customers for an inbound plane service to Guernsey. The fact is that they would definitely throw it away if they didn't have Moonpig and Funky Pigeon, who account for most of the payload. They would just say 'send it by sea' if it wasn't worth it. Their USO doesn't cover strict timeframes for UK deliveries.
Also, what does 'sustainable rate' mean in providing the service? That implies to me an increase in the cost of the service. Probably not mega-money, but it is probably costing more.
De-minimis removal on imports into the UK is a bigger risk that I would watch out for and would be much more costly imo. |
In case anyone missed the above.
Funny old world with more or less total silence on MOON on these boards and continuous chatter on loads of others. |
Missed this from 14th Feb. Removes the risk, although it was hardly likely that Guernsey would throw away their commercial export business jobs. Not just Moonpig that ship from there.
Guernsey Post has announced it has secured a new air solution following Royal Mail’s decision to withdraw Guernsey’s dedicated mail plane. The current mail plane will cease operations on Friday 4th April and the new service will commence on Monday 7th April, ensuring continued export services for local businesses and residents.
Steve Sheridan, Guernsey Post’s Chief Executive said "We are delighted to continue providing our customers with a robust and reliable export solution. Our new service ensures seamless injection into the Royal Mail network all while maintaining an efficient and consistent export service for our Bailiwick residents." |
 Moonpig remains a compelling opportunity, says investment bank
Deutsche Bank sees Moonpig Group PLC (LSE:MOON) as a "compelling opportunity", maintaining its 'buy' rating and a 290p price target. It believes the online card card and gift retailer is well-positioned for double-digit revenue growth, helped by rising stamp prices and increasing international momentum, which reduce pressure on its UK business. However, challenges remain in key areas. Deutsche has lowered its forecasts for Moonpig’s Dutch subsidiary, Greetz, where web traffic has slowed, and for its Experiences division, which it says needs a more substantial revamp.While spending on travel and leisure is rising, Moonpig has yet to fully capitalise on the opportunity.
Despite these hurdles, Deutsche Bank remains positive about Moonpig’s prospects, particularly as its core UK market continues to perform well. With a supportive market environment and strong brand positioning, the bank sees potential for further gains, provided the company can address weaknesses in its international operations. |
Moonpig have repurchased circa 3.25m shares (circa 1% of shares in issue) over the past 11 weeks. |
Have whatever impression you want. I haven't got time for a stupid argument. Why not just keep it not-personal. |
Did you get some Moon when it was around 100p ? |
Haven’t seem anything. Bit crucial for Guernsey itself. |
Anyone have any insight into the post plane issue raised in post 282? A recent BBC article suggests a solution is imminent:
Jake Wallace
BBC News, Guernsey
Published
7 January 2025
Guernsey Post is "confident" of finding a mail plane replacement when Royal Mail withdraws its funding in April.
The UK postal service announced plans to pull its "equal contribution" of the funding in August 2024, due to a "steady decline in volume" making planes underfilled.
CEO of Guernsey post, Steve Sheridan said specific details remain confidential, but he is in "advanced negotiations" to maintain the mail service.
"We are in a very good position and remain hopeful of announcing something in the coming weeks which would provide the continuation of that connectivity," he said.
'Absolutely imperative'
The possibility of a shared mail plane between Guernsey and Jersey was raised in September by government officials.
"The solution that we are negotiating at the moment, is very much a Guernsey only solution," Mr Sheridan said.
"Our own unique requirements in Guernsey are very much very different in the sense that we will be filling to capacity any future mail planes, we'll have requirement for 100% of the space on that plane."
Mr Sheridan said having two online greeting card businesses that rely on fast delivery worldwide from Guernsey, was "absolutely" part of the island needing its own plane.
"The volumes that we are handling on a daily basis for those businesses really do render the option for a mail plane to be commercially viable," he said.
"I think that it is absolutely imperative, it's a key requirement in their continued existence on the island.
"We want to support that for the wider economic benefits that brings as well.
"Of course for businesses that need next day mail solutions as well, having that connectivity will be important that we continue to provide the services that they need. |
Moonpig lands in Premier Miton fund
Premier Miton duo Jon Hudson and Benji Dawes picked up a stake in Moonpig (MOON) last year, encouraged by a pickup in consumer spending. They added the online card and gift retailer to their £172m Premier Miton UK Growth fund as they spied improving prospects for the group. "The firm has struggled in recent years as consumers tightened their belts and cut discretionary spending on gifts. With disposable incomes rising again, a strong technology platform, and dominant market share in online cards, Moonpig seems well positioned to succeed."
Shares in Moonpig are up more than 30% over the past 12 months, but are still trading at well under half their peak of nearly £4.90 soon after floating in 2021. More broadly, managers said the UK economy ‘continues to show improvements’ and, while the new Labour government is increasing taxes, its "front-footed’ approach to financial markets regulation, as well as housing and, in particular, planning legislation, augur well for the nation’s economic prospects and encourage investment". |
Moonpig launches AI-driven handwriting tool
The online card firm has introduced a feature enabling users to create their own digital handwriting, bridging the gap between convenience and personalisation
The new feature, which launched this month, allows Moonpig users to create their own digital handwriting by drawing each letter of the alphabet in lower and upper-case fonts. Technology then generates a font for each user which can be stored in their account and used again.
Complete article: |
Just don’t want this sold off to VC before Greetz gets into profit and experiences is rationalised.
Although the latter has been a bit of a burden, the acquisitions have almost made Moon the sole source for easy buying of experience gifts. These sorts of acquisitions escape any competition issues, but they gradually turn into semi-monopolies.
Just the same as Amazon has over SME’s because they have no way of being seen otherwise.
I used to promote buyagift and red letter days as an affiliate and make good money, because in the days of desktops, you could advertise fairly cheaply, as there were at least 15 visible results on page 1 of a Google search.
Now the internet is dominated by very large middle-men and Moon is one of them. |
"Moonpig’s half-year revenue increased 3.8% to £158m, while adjusted cash profit grew 1% to £41.8m thanks to growth in new customers and orders from existing ones, prompting the company to upgrade its targets. As an online business with low capital requirements, Moonpig generated £10m of free cash flow, which allowed the company to cut debt and post its first dividend. Moonpig’s forward PE ratio of 19 is reasonable. 222p" Investors Chronicle |
Broker tips: Moonpig
Mon 16 Dec 2024
Last week's dramatic share-price plunge at cards and gifts retailer Moonpig represents a good buying opportunity for investors, according to Canaccord Genuity, which reiterated its positive stance on the stock. Moonpig said last Tuesday that it swung to a pre-tax loss of £33.3m in the first half, from a profit of £18.9m the year before, and pointed to "challenging" trading in its Experiences segment. However, Canaccord said results were still "strong" and kept a 'buy' rating on the shares on Monday, raising its target price from 254.0p to 267.0p.
"Moonpig delivered a strong set of interim results, upgrading medium-term EBITDA margins by 100bps, yet this got overshadowed by tough trading on the gifting side and by a non-cash impairment of the Experiences business, while a high share price into the results resulted in a sell-off in the stock. We believe the sell-off in the shares provides a buying opportunity with the investments made into the platform beginning to pay off with Moonpig returning to active customer growth and seeing rising order frequency, while new revenue initiatives are helping support the margin." said analysts. |
I thought they wanted to keep hold of the data as part of their platform ambition? I'm not entirely convinced they have that potential imo, but it's a novel ambition.
Yes, I've owned card since it was in the 40s and 50s, and it has grown like-for-like every year since it's gone public, which is an incredible achievement, and I'm also surprised by how long it's been selling at a discount and totally understand why an Australian billionaire and The Gates Foundation are shareholders.
Well, I just don't think it's coincidental that, given there's 100m debt on the balance sheet, that they've decided on large distributions just before they announce that the management has massively overpaid for an acquisition, which was supposed to be strategic and hasn't really proven to be.
Finally, I think that's somewhat lazy thinking and why card is such an opportunity because of such thinking. There are many successful physical retailers who are far from a risky bet. I would rather own Primark than Boohoo or ASOS, even with their data; Aldi and Lidl thrive as does B&M and many more. I |
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