Mobico Share Discussion Threads

[steve517499] 02/12/2009 16:33

Scorpione,

The offer would not have been conditional as Stagecoach had received assurances that the 2 Franchises would not be taken back or cut short in the envent of the takeover completing.

If they had this assurance, they did not need to make the offer conditional .... they WOULD be getting the 2 franchises, with NXEA running until 2014.

This will not happen now, so the value of the company is worth the previous price, less any value placed on the existing rail franchises

[scorpione] 02/12/2009 15:02

steve517499

I agree with you about the reputation of the board being in tatters and I strongly believe that this company's future will eventually be in the hands of Stagecoach and / or the Cosmens and /or others sooner rather than later.

You are however wrong about conditions relating to the aborted £5 bid. Below is an extract from the NEX RNS dated 11 September whilst it was all going on. You will see that it was NOT conditional on the issues you mention.

The Group notes that the Consortium is in discussions and has reached an
"agreement of principles" with Stagecoach Group plc ("Stagecoach"), regarding
the possible acquisition by Stagecoach of the Group's UK Bus and UK Rail
operations from the Consortium, which has helped the Consortium to make the
Final Proposal. The Consortium has now confirmed to the Independent Board that
any formal offer for the Group will not be conditional on: (i) the Department of Transport consenting to the change of control of the Group's NXEA and c2c rail franchises, nor the extension of the NXEA franchise to April 2014; nor (ii) the completion of the sale of any businesses to Stagecoach.

[steve517499] 02/12/2009 12:12

Scorpione,

Stagecoach / Cosmen were willing to pay £5 per share ... with the retention of the rail franchises for their natural terms ... including the East Anglia extension until 2014. Now you have not got that, so there will be no rail business, the shares will be further diluted, the reputation of the company and board is in tatters ... on what basis will anyone have to pay more than the original bid (after post rights adjustment) in the new year ... just do not see it myself.

You are now limited to companies that already run rail franchises ... as even with new owners, they may have issues getting back on the DfT qualifed bidders list.

I think it will be 2/3 years before this company fully recovers. 2011 your revenue and profit streams will get drastically reduced by the loss of the 2 remaining franchises ... I hope I am wrong for all you guys that have held during the troubles.

[cdt2112] 01/12/2009 19:45

I am probably thinking more long term than that :)

[hamsterape] 01/12/2009 16:05

Is your family member demented?

I'd take all you can at 105p - you can sell them for an
immediate profit of more than 60p a share.

[cdt2112] 01/12/2009 14:19

I am very new to this but i am being offered some of the shares through a family member at 105p will it be a sound investment, should i buy and sit on them or sell quickly or not bother? I am up for about £2000 investment.

Many thanks cdt

[hamsterape] 01/12/2009 13:54

Steve517499, my statement was simply disagreeing with the other
poster about shares always trading at a discount.

As you rightly say, it wasn't meant to be applicable to NEX, as such.

[scorpione] 01/12/2009 11:04

steve517499 - the loss of rail franchises has been discounted for some time. The Cosmens / Stagecoach were still more than happy to pay (pre rights) £5 per share. Imho its more than likely that lot will be back by March to get their hands on NEX and this time they may have to pay a higher price (after post rights adjustment).

[steve517499] 01/12/2009 10:44

Hamster

"Excluding investment vehicles, it's more common for shares to trade
at a premium to NAV, especially if they are making regular and
growing profits."

Although your statement maybe true, surely with the loss of the Rail Franchises, it is not currently applicable to NEX

[scorpione] 01/12/2009 09:49

Thanks for your intelligent contribution HamsterApe, ShortAFN obviously doesn't know what he is talking about. Useless remarks such as his do annoy me!!!

[hamsterape] 01/12/2009 06:59

all shares trade at 30-40% discount to nav, so technically
it should trade about 250p pre rights.

Where did you get that idea from?

Excluding investment vehicles, it's more common for shares to trade
at a premium to NAV, especially if they are making regular and
growing profits. Alternatively, you may find most of the asset
value is made up of intangible "goodwill" which would largely
disappear if the company were to go bust and be broken up.

[short afn] 30/11/2009 19:56

Scorpion


you ain't smart, aren't?


Nav 382p. LOLL

all shares trade at 30-40% discount to nav, so technically it should trade about 250p pre rights.


Now they are losing the franchise and rightly so, a big revenue loss, and premium business.


This is going to the dog house, and I can tell you this, it will be sub 100p before the end of the year.

Shorters will hammer it into oblivion.

[short afn] 30/11/2009 13:01

This is a good candidate for 1p a share

[clippyclive] 30/11/2009 11:27

I think that the management should all hang there heads in shame, what have they done to this company.

[hamsterape] 29/11/2009 15:26

Well according to an article in the FT the position on the board
is safe as it depends on the number of shares not the
percentage. So not only might they not take up the rights, but
they might even sell some of the shares recently bought. It's entirely
possible they borrowed short-term to buy them to attempt to block
the vote for a massive gamble that didn't pay off.

[jtcod] 28/11/2009 09:32

I was out yesterday. I see the vote wasn't even close, which makes the Cosmen buys even more strange. Perhaps they don't intend to take up the rights issue as you suggested may be the case last week HA.

With their tarnished reputation I think it may take a while before the management can start delivering shareholder value from here. Having said that, they may be able to drive the dividend I guess.

[hamsterape] 27/11/2009 13:54

For my Laptop, you mean? Can I pay £50 extra for the carrot upgrade?

I had a couple of opportunities to get out of my short at sub 325p
on brief spikes down and missed them due to inattentiveness.
Really annoying when you have to wait days in between with the market
going sharply against you, despite your gut feeling of where it will
end up. Cosmen's buying spree really was irritating as he was propping
up the market for days all on his own, yet I couldn't justify increasing
my short to take advantage as my position was already a bit on the
large side.

[canny scott] 27/11/2009 13:29

Thanks a lot Hamster
I sold, learned a lesson to take profits and not be greedy. Annoying when I could have made a bit of profit earlier in the week. I'll keep an eye on it as you say, is interesting soap opera at least, and maybe buy in again, but as pure speculator, have no respect for this lot.
Have an extra lettuce leaf from me.
C

[hamsterape] 27/11/2009 13:06

Canny

I suspect this is one of those rights issues that will attract short-selling from hedge funds. If you can stomach the loss now, selling today avoids the rights issue, then, if it drops further (after taking account of the price adjustment) you might get the chance to buy back in at an equivalently
cheaper price.

A 7 for 3 at 105p means that at the current price of about 330p means the theoretical price on Monday should be about 173p and he nil-paid rights
will trade at about 68p.

[hamsterape] 27/11/2009 12:59

RNS Number : 2058D

27 November 2009


Result of Extraordinary General Meeting


National Express Group PLC ("National Express" or the "Company") announces that
at the Extraordinary General Meeting held today in relation to its recently
announced Rights Issue, both of the Resolutions set out in the Notice of EGM
contained in the Prospectus relating to the Rights Issue, which was published by
the Company on 11 November 2009, were duly passed without amendment.


The passing of the Resolutions will enable the Company to proceed with the fully
underwritten Rights Issue to raise net proceeds of approximately GBP360
million. Accordingly, subject to certain exceptions, Provisional Allotment
Letters will be sent today to Qualifying Non-CREST Shareholders on the register
as at close of business on 24 November 2009, and CREST stock accounts are
expected to be credited with Nil Paid Rights in respect of New Ordinary Shares
at 8.00 a.m. on 30 November 2009.


Application has been made to the UK Listing Authority and to the London Stock
Exchange for 357,038,742 New Ordinary Shares (nil paid and fully paid) to be
admitted to the Official List of the UK Listing Authority and to trading on the
main market for listed securities of the London Stock Exchange, respectively.
It is expected that Admission will become effective and that dealings on the
London Stock Exchange in the New Ordinary Shares (nil paid) will commence at
8.00 a.m. on 30 November 2009.


The Resolutions were passed at the Extraordinary General Meeting on a poll.
Details of the votes cast (including proxy votes) are as follows:


+--------------------------------+---------------------+---------------------+-------------+
| | For | Against | Withheld |
+--------------------------------+---------------------+---------------------+-------------+
| Resolution 1 | 66,013,158 | 31,116,629 | 207,592 |
| To increase the limit on the | (67.96%) | (32.04%) | |
| maximum nominal amount of | | | |
| shares which may be allotted | | | |
| by the Company | | | |
| | | | |
+--------------------------------+---------------------+---------------------+-------------+
| Resolution 2 |62,992,474 (66.81%) |31,295,692 (33.19%) | 3,049,376 |
| To authorise the Directors to | | | |
| allot shares in the Company | | | |
| | | | |
+--------------------------------+---------------------+---------------------+-------------+

[canny scott] 27/11/2009 12:51

I think they did that with Dallas.

Advice needed anyone please. I'm new to all this and hold NEX, bought at 348, not so many but I'm not taking a loss as kicking myself I didn't sell when I had the chance. Should I just sell up today, get iii to sell for me Monday morn, or sell myself Monday morn, or some other permutation. Will my rights make me some dosh. Much appreciated as I'm sitting in limboland right now and would prefer to get out in the garden.

[hamsterape] 27/11/2009 12:39

Is anyone else amazed that this entire saga - two failed bids, loss of franchises to the Govt, Cosmens wrestling against the board etc - hasn't
been featured at length on CNBC? I'm staggered, myself. You could make a
good film out of this.

[canny scott] 27/11/2009 12:26

If I were them, I'd buy enough to stay on board, get a decent CEO in, and get some sensible management going on, including a fresh look at selling up. They can't even get their own RNSs on their website, which is shocking given the situation.

[winston270] 27/11/2009 12:19

I wonder whether the Cosmens will now take you their rights?

Surely they have to, otherwise they facing loosing even more money on their NEX investment & potentially loosing their seat on the board