Mobico Share Discussion Threads

[hamsterape] 11/11/2009 13:08

What's keeping them up is they do not go ex-rights until the 30th,
by which time the share price may be somewhat lower (or higher, even)
and the TERP won't be 175p.

[stdyeddy] 11/11/2009 12:55

these are defying gravity aren't they? if they've got net debt and the ex-rights value is around £1.75, what's keeping them up?

[steve517499] 11/11/2009 10:19

milacs / JTCod

Think the transport sector on the whole is going through the mill at the moment as a result of the NEX situation ... and shows no sign of immediate support. The only holding I have in the sector at the moment is SGC and must say I have been a little disappointed by its performance.

I am not keen on this NA school bus business, profits seem erratic and regularly seem to produce losses. My views on the companies.

SGC - Should in my eyes be a great prospect. It does have 1 big black cloud hanging over it - SWT. This is still in the first 3 year no protection period. After DfT played hardball with NEX over East Coast, sure they will face a stiff legal challenge if they re-negotiate in any way the SWT deal. Looking to hold .. not to add.

NEX - Sorry with its current troubles - be prepared to lose the lot - but upsides could be great longer term - depending on how thing pan out. Big risk in my eyes

GOG - Great company, seems well run - disapppointed they have chosen to enter the NA market. Would invest at the right price.

FGP - Even though all the rail franchsies now get some DfT protection, the escalating rail premium payments still worry me. This coupled with their debt means I will not be putting any money into this company

ARI - Sought to expand in Europe rather than America, an approach I am far more happier with. Debt seems to be managed well. This will probably be the sectors company I invest in next, if the entry point is right and my funds are available.

[royaloak] 11/11/2009 09:30

JTCod

Did not know you did not short. I do my fair share, especially with larger companies. It can go badly wrong of course, anyone who shorted this first thing would have found out. This company keeps coming out with bad news but still bounces, perhaps the long termers think there is only one inevitable conclusion, they will be taken out. Hope it works out for you if your long.

[jtcod] 11/11/2009 09:19

lol
A nice thought RO but as you probably know I don't short. IAE is a nice play though imo.

[royaloak] 11/11/2009 09:18

What about this for a nice double then JTCod, long IAE short NEX!

[jtcod] 11/11/2009 08:27

That is criminal imo.

[gdasinv2] 11/11/2009 08:25

Short this heavily....i.e 339*3 + 105*7 =1752 i.e each share is 1752/10 = 175.2p

So I would say should fall to 150-170

[stdyeddy] 11/11/2009 08:15

360m new shares at a £1 each?? does that mean that at 7 for 3, the existing shares will be valued at close to £1 too?

[jtcod] 10/11/2009 17:04

Both First Group and NEX have too much debt for my tastes. SGC is the play in the sector for me. They have all the cards stacked in their favour. They can bid for any franchise and undercut anyone in the business if they want it bad enough. They are the only player with a strong enough balance sheet to launch a bid for a major player like NEX. They are financially and commercially in a very strong position right now, which is why I think the board of NEX has short changed the their own shareholders by not going with SGC.

[milacs] 10/11/2009 16:57

JTCod

Thanks for your response. At what point would you consider buying into NEX.

Have had a look at First Group and they appear equally attractive as Stagecoach.

What do you think?

M

[jtcod] 05/11/2009 15:26

Not at this point Milacs. I am obviously keen for a deal still to be done of course but I also think a deal with SGC would be good for both sides. Notwithstanding NEX would inherit the best CEO in the business, they have a real problem of reputation to contend with and it would be a good solution. As I have pointed out before, in a business that is rigid on customer pricing constraints, Mr Souter has still achieved more than 40% higher bottom line profit margin than the NEX management over the best part of 10yrs. This management do the shareholders no favours imo.

[milacs] 05/11/2009 15:14

JTCod

It is my understanding that you hold shares in Stagecoach. Do you also hold in NEX.

M

[jtcod] 05/11/2009 10:26

I am surprised any broker would underwrite an issue expecting investors to rely on forecasts that have no way of estimating the damage caused by pulling out of their rail franchise. They could have alienated all government departments for all we know. Even those that have say in other forms of transport.

The shareholders need 'new owners' to bring an established reputation for dependability, integrity and fiscal control. Just hiring a new CEO will not achieve that and this BoD is playing Russian Roulette with shareholder value imo.

[jascat] 05/11/2009 08:23

Looks like NEX is going to be forced by Shareholder pressure into making a deal with SGC, or sit & watch the share price dive to the point where a rights issue will be a non starter.

[am4rjit] 03/11/2009 16:03

I say this share has more upside potentail and I can't see it going any lower before the rights issue.
Once the rights issue is sorted and the price adjusted for dilution, it can only go higher.
Then the company can get a higher price from any buyer.
I am sticking for the long term.

[solomon9] 02/11/2009 20:55

After the fiasco this board has caused - I'll tell them where they can stick their rights issue.

[this_is_me] 02/11/2009 13:13

Shows how stupid fund managers are. Why did Aegon not sell at the topof the market? They certainly didn't get as much as I got for mine a few weeks agp.

[balone] 02/11/2009 10:06

you re probably right. A couple more sell outs by major shareholders and a rights issue and this will be in freefall. might open a short and try and recoup a few quid

[bullet8] 02/11/2009 09:34

1.50-2.00 pounds my target.

[balone] 02/11/2009 08:51

i'm out. might be back around £2.65. GLA

[elssworth] 01/11/2009 09:43

Level 4 target remians at 72p.
I hope ths helps
Fanks
======================================

The Sunday Times
November 1, 2009

National Express hit by Aegon shares sale
Dominic O'Connell


Investor turmoil at National Express, the bus and rail group, has increased with Aegon, one of its main shareholders, selling most of its stake.

The insurance and asset management group had a 3.5% holding, making it the company's fourth-largest shareholder, but on Friday it sold all but a small number of shares. It did not comment on the reason for the sale.

Last week National Express terminated merger talks with rival Stagecoach, saying it would instead go ahead with plans to raise money from a rights issue.

The move provoked a furious response from the company's largest shareholder, Spain's Cosmen family.

The Cosmens questioned the company's direction in a public statement.

"We have serious concerns about the absence of a well-defined strategy to address the company's broader long-term issues," the Cosmens said, calling for the appointment of new independent advisers.

"We are concerned there has not been a sufficiently full and thorough assessment of all the available options."

[3formed] 31/10/2009 17:06

there is a free live price chart for NEX here: