Mirada Share Discussion Threads

[battlebus2] 24/4/2014 10:03

A few decent trades going through this morning.

[rambutan2] 11/4/2014 06:33

So, 4m trade of other day was good news as Infoglobal reduce and Hargreave Hale increase (at 16p). A good result, imho.

[stewy_18] 10/4/2014 07:31

No raising needed unless they get extra contracts. I think the share price is just cooling off a bit. Not too worried as we will have news one way or the other about the contract. Hopefully new in June/July.

[megabear] 10/4/2014 07:14

Thinks it was just a placing? Weak hands to strong hands.

[rhiannon] 10/4/2014 07:06

New money raised RNS? wdik

[thejerryspringershow] 10/4/2014 01:42

approx 14%

[pj 1] 09/4/2014 18:24

After an 80% rise in 2 months bound to be volatile

Its a gamble on the contract isn't it!

[stewy_18] 09/4/2014 16:37

Typical me buying at the top. Any news cause the drop?

[megabear] 09/4/2014 11:12

Big ticket gone through

[stewy_18] 07/4/2014 05:45

Rambutan,

Where did you get that figure of $15 million from? Did that come from the company?

Best

Stuart

[rambutan2] 07/4/2014 01:02

I believe rev from the customer would be more like US$15m over the initial 3yrs. And once installed, the software is very sticky, so likely life much longer. Also, mira earn a fee (approx $3) for each new subscriber, and its customers are expecting to grow their digital tv numbers a lot. So plenty of rev t/c.

[stewy_18] 06/4/2014 12:30

El1te,

Thanks for that. I think vazquezs' credibility would be totally shot if they don't get this contract. Not saying it won't happen, but he does seem confident. Risk/reward looks pretty good from here.

The problem, as you say, is if they don't win the contract. Not really sure where they would go from there. It seems that it would probably put other companies off ( it stands to reason if companies will follow when successful, they won't if it is not).

That would put them on quite a hefty rating.

My risking here is there is a 20% chance the contract is not awarded, and there I think the share price will half to about 9p.

80% that the contract is awarded and that would put it in the range you state, but also with the incentive of extra contract wins that may possibly follow ?

This is all guess work of course. I have not met with the company, the only information I have is from the presentation and the interview, but I think it is worth the risk and I'll probably top up my modest position.

Best

Stuart

[el1te] 06/4/2014 10:15

stewy - My take is that revenues from this new contract would be at least 20% above current turnover so getting close to the £6m you mention. The bulk of that would probably come in year 2 because of the timing of the contract.

However, margins are literally 99% because they are just license fees. Therefore the pre-tax profit is higher than what you've pencilled in. Clearly, if they win that contract, there remains to be pretty substantial upside towards 25-30p. They have a range of smaller contracts.

I personally took profits very recently because of the nature of the rise (it being very rapid in nature). I can see them bolstering their balance sheet should it rise considerably further, but my only concern is that Mirada won't really reach a particularly high PER due to the one-off nature of the licence fees, rather than being recurring. It's therefore dependent on them signing large contracts on a rolling basis. I'm also wary to not take the contract win for granted - there's always that small possibility that they won't win the contract, of that the number of subscribers will fall short of expectations.

That's a long-term issue though. If they win this large contract, then that won't matter in the slightest for the next couple of years.

Hope that helps,
El1te

[stewy_18] 06/4/2014 10:08

In the presentation they state "If commercially deployed, total license fees over a 3 year period will far exceed our current annual turnover". Can anyone quantify 'far'? So total revenues for 2013 were a tad under 5 million pounds. Are we looking at 6 million GBP fees for the 3 years? So 2 million a year? They mention the margins are really high So let's say 70% ? So 1.4 million pre tax profit? Current market cap 15 million. That looks about right at the moment, but it really could go anywhere.

Vazquez mentioned that he thought others contracts would follow quite quickly after this project was signed off ( companies waiting to see if this is successful ). If that is credible, MIRA really is in good shape. Still quite a few if's and but's but they seem extremely confident they will get the sign off on this project.

I hold but I'm not sure whether to add after the rise.

Tantalizing.

Comments welcome.

Best

Stuart

[stewy_18] 04/4/2014 11:29

Do we know what expect this year if the contract is not rolled out. Any brokers following Mirada?

Best

Stuart

[aim_trader] 04/4/2014 11:27

Company Presentation - 4th April 2014

[cheshire man] 04/4/2014 07:32

Thanks for that Graham :-)

[graham1ty] 04/4/2014 07:22

Great presentation. As upbeat as I have seen them. The upside is unlimited if this contract is rolled out

[aim_trader] 01/4/2014 10:58

The directors of Accesso Technology group (AIM: ACSO), Mirada Plc (AIM: MIRA) and Advanced Computer Software Group plc (AIM: ASW) will be presenting this
Thursday the 3rd April 2014 at The Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, 35 Charles Street, Mayfair, W1J 5EB

REGISTER HERE:

[pj 1] 28/3/2014 14:07

Thanks anyway, removed :-o

[janeann] 28/3/2014 13:44

PJ - I read this yesterday a good read - but you may wish to note there is a copyright warning on their website......