Mining Minerals & Metals Share Discussion Threads

[jon389] 16/1/2006 08:20

I would have thought it would be 10p by now.The good news must be in the price.

[jackohelp] 16/1/2006 08:07

good start already,,let the momentum continue.

[liarspoker] 16/1/2006 08:05

Heading up nicely - prospects have certainly improved largely.

What will happen to goldfields ? We'll just have to wait & see.

[jackohelp] 15/1/2006 18:33

anyone seen anything in the papers this weekend?
cant find any other info .... here's to tomorrow..

[thecynical1] 15/1/2006 17:32

not sure what this is worth but just for info....looks like they have the PR machine working on this one..that went up on the RTE homepage ( Irish state-owned Channel for those of you not so familiar with the Irish TV-landscape...) only about 2 hours after the announcement...not sure if it actually hit the evening news over there...anybody based in Ireland able to comment on that ?

what I still do not understand is why they announced this on a Friday after the close of business......anybody ?

[liarspoker] 15/1/2006 12:05

Thanks cestnous.

[cestnous] 15/1/2006 10:20

Very prompt reply from Hugh, for which I have thanked him.

Dear Mr.



The word "cut" in the context used in yesterday's press announcement, refers to a method used to reduce the influence of exceptionally high assay values on overall average grades. We have used it to avoid the very high values encountered in some of our holes skewing our calculations of average grades. An example might help. If we had a hole with grades for each metre of a 5 metre stretch as follows: 150 g/t; 10g/t; 35g/t; 100g/t and 10 g/t, and we want to calculate the average grade of that 5 metre run. A straight uncut average would be found by adding all the values, and since each value is over a 1 metre run, dividing the sum by 5. The average would then be quoted as 5 metres at 61 grams/tonne. However, this uncut value may give undue weight to the very high values of 150 g/t and 100 g/t. It is considered advisable to be conservative in this sort of calculation and to cut the higher values down to a selected lower value which is usually selected based on a statistical analysis of all the results obtained. In our case, we have used a top cut of 30 g/t which means that wherever we have a value of more than 30 g/t, we cut that value down to a maximum of 30 g/t for purposes of calculating an average grade. In the example given above therefore, the grades we would use in calculating the cut grade average for the 5 metre run would be as follows: 30 g/t; 10 g/t; 30 g/t; 30 g/t and 10 g/t giving an average of 5 metres at 22 g/t (cut). As you can see, the cut value gives a more conservative grade than the uncut value.



I hope this answers your question but please let me know if you need further information.



With regards



Hugh McCullough

[bongo bwana] 14/1/2006 18:24

One last word - try adding a bit of DEPTH to the strike length and width tonudiki - remember some of the more significant drills ended at depth (circa 80 metres and remained in ore grade mineralisation)!

Lets see what you guys + gals think Goldfields and GEX's options are NOW.

lOOKING FORWARD TO A GREAT READ WHEN i RETURN IN 15 DAYS.

STAY COOL!

[tonudiki] 14/1/2006 16:49

Thecynical1

Thankyou for your comment and a good point. Some dilution is inevitable ....either a rights issue or Goldfields (say) acquiring a % interest in exchange for financing the development of the mine.

I think Glencar have said that they have enough cash to complete their drilling programmes, so maybe by then we will be looking at a much larger "total resource" than my conservative(I hope) estimate. Any dilution may well be covered, and more ,by what they find in the new 900 metre long zone to the South which I have ignored.

Well,we will find out in the coming months just what the total proven/probable resource is, but IMHO it's going to be an exciting/profitable time for Gex shareholders.

[thecynical1] 14/1/2006 16:16

tonudiki...I think you may well want to factor in a bit of dilution before they get to the point of taking anything out of the ground...........I am not knocking...I am holding...just pointing out that money will inevitably have to be raised at some point....

having said that...I like the 37p price......would make this very profitable!!!! ; )

[tonudiki] 14/1/2006 16:13

Jon 389.... Well,I think so because I have based my value on the average Market Cap of existing producers per oz. of proven/probable reserves, and this therefore includes EVERYTHING for them...Capex,extraction costs, admin,finance,revenue/dividend streams,etc.etc.

Market Cap is a crude yardstick as grades,size of total reserves, and ease/cost of extraction all matter. But given that Glencars "possible resource" is near surface, with good grades, in a relatively compact area, I have assumed it would be reasonable to anticipate the market putting a value of £100 per oz. on it.

[thecynical1] 14/1/2006 16:13

afternoon all...just wondering why the kept that until 17.22....bit unusual...anybody else find that a little strange?

[jon389] 14/1/2006 15:48

Have you allowed for the costs of extraction?

[tonudiki] 14/1/2006 15:42

Friday's RNS has to be excellent news for GEX holders.

I have been trying to calculate a potential proven/possible total resource from the zones drilled so far and a share price value,as follows:-

1) The ore zone in the metesediment is approx 450 metres long x avge. 20.3 metres wide, yielding an average of 4.33 gms/tonne(cut) at up to 60 metres depth. At say 2.3 tonnes per cu.metre this works out at 450x20.3x60x2.3= 1,260,630 tonnes yielding 4.33 gms/tonne =5.46 million grammes or 175,000 ozs.

2) The ore zone in the porphyry is approx 350 metres length x 200 metres width. Only 4 holes have been drilled so far in this area with 2 holes providing significant mineralisation, but good grades and at good length have been found. It's hard to estimate this areas value but the company comments that "the porphyry zone is persistently mineralised with clear potential for significant additions to the mineralisation already established further north in the metasediments area."
A pure guess, but lets say an average of 2gm/tonne over a depth of 70 metres. This then works out at 350x200x70x2.3 =11.27 million tonnes at 2 grammes/tonne = 22.54 million grams or 725,000 ozs.

3) The extension to the zone of a further 900 metres length to the South has yet to be drilled ,but field mapping suggests "significant mineralisation" .No idea of course what this might add, but it will be exciting to find out in the future!!

4) So, whats all this suggest for the share price? Well, an average market capitalisaion is £100 per oz. of proven/probable reserves (which we have not yet got) but, on Glencars 85% interest, the Market Cap value of 1)&2) aboves total of 900,000 ozs. ,if proven, would be 765,000 ozs at £100 = £76.5 million. Dividing this by the number of shares issued (206 million) = 37p per share.


Nothing has been added to this for the new mineralised zone to the South, nor of course for all the other interesting prospects/agreements Glencar has in Mali and elsewhere.

A WEALTH WARNING
This is a novices assessment of the share prices prospects, so take my numbers with a shovelful of salt. I would, however, like to learn more about doing these extrapolations and so I would be very grateful if the resident expert(s) on this BB could show me how it should be done?

[cestnous] 14/1/2006 12:10

This note from the RNS explains why they have adjusted the cut off grade . It looks to me that they are just being very conservative.

'Note 1: In order to reduce the influence of exceptionally high assay values for
purposes of evaluating overall grades, it has been decided to cut all higher
values to a maximum grade of 30 grams/tonne and grades are quoted herein in both
cut and uncut form.'

The info below is from the Univ. of Leeds, I think' and it may be useful re the grades question. If you go any deeper into it, things get really complicated. I have e- mailed the co. asking for the grade criteria and will post if I get a reply.


Cut-off Grades
Production strategies are based upon resources classified in the form of grade-tonnage curves which indicate the tonnage of ore above certain specified cut-off grades. Business plans should indicate the planning [long term] and operational [short term] cut-off grades utilised, and the basis of their calculation. Break-even grades are the simplest and most widely used form of cut-off grade, whereby the revenue obtained from selling the mined product exactly equals the costs of mining, processing and marketing. As a general rule, sunk costs should be eliminated from cut-off grade calculations.



Cut-off grades should also be defined with reference to a criterion. The most common criterion is to maximise the net present value. At any stage during the operation of a mine, the net present value will be maximised by maximising profit per unit of time. Thus, a dynamic cut-off grade strategy has to be implemented in which initial cut-off grades are increased to the highest level that will still provide sufficient ore to the treatment plant. As time progresses, higher grade ore will be depleted and the cut-off grade must be lowered. In practice, a declining cut-off grade strategy is tempered by the nature of the orebody and the mining method – simply, the extent to which ore rejected by a high cut-off grade in one stage remains available for selection at a later date as the cut-off grade is lowered

[jon389] 13/1/2006 19:55

Thanks for your observations.Hopefully will rise above 10p on monday

[jon389] 13/1/2006 19:35

So what does this mean in terms of the share price on mon? Any predictions?Sounds good to me but then i am not an expert on the language used in the announcement to describe the degree of mineralisation

[liarspoker] 13/1/2006 19:04

Well I mailed Caron Crowley from Davy's. She's out of the office until Tuesday and she doesn't have access to her Mail during that time.

Has she gone to Africa for a look herself ?.....or has she just gone skiing ?

[happyblackbunny] 13/1/2006 18:54

hmmm... they really do make sure news is released EARLY January as promised ... as releasing next week won't be Early January anymore, it will be MID January!

[jackohelp] 13/1/2006 18:37

can someone translate a bit of this-- bwongo.
what is cut and uncut?
r the remaining assays of the bonanza type?
can you do a bit of layman language and relate it to the text in the rns?
please..

[blueyonder] 13/1/2006 18:09

the institution timed thier purchase well.

[liarspoker] 13/1/2006 17:37

Wakey, wakey everyone:


Drilling Update

RNS Number:9442W
Glencar Mining PLC
13 January 2006

GLENCAR MINING PLC


Glencar Intersects Additional High Grade Mineralisation in Mali




Glencar Mining plc ("Glencar" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the
receipt of the remaining assay results from the Komana West drilling programme.


Highlights are:


* Ore grade mineralisation has now been confirmed by drilling over a strike
length of 800 metres.


* Mineralised intersections in boreholes on each of four fencelines in
metasediment show an average width of 20.3 metres at an average grade of
11.58 grams/tonne (uncut) or 4.33 grams/tonne (cut) (Note 1)


* Drilling in the intrusive porphyry in the southern portion of the drilled
area has also shown extensive mineralisation.


* Previously reported bonanza intersection in KWRC 002 has now been
increased to 20 metres at 55.19 grams/tonne (uncut) following receipt of
outstanding assays.


* Recent field mapping has identified evidence of significant mineralisation
900 metres along strike to the south of the recently drilled area.


Note 1: In order to reduce the influence of exceptionally high assay values for
purposes of evaluating overall grades, it has been decided to cut all higher
values to a maximum grade of 30 grams/tonne and grades are quoted herein in both
cut and uncut form.



Background


The Komana licence is one of a block of five licences in Glencar's Sankarani
Project in southern Mali. Glencar may earn up to an 85% interest (net of the
Mali Government's interest of 10%) in the Komana licence and, in addition,
Glencar holds an option to acquire the outstanding 5% interest through payment
of US$1 million at any time within 90 days of completion of senior financing for
the development of a mine on the property. Glencar is currently finalising an
agreement with Gold Fields relating to three other licences in the Sankarani
area, at Bokoro, Sanioumale and Farasaba.


The Komana West target is a mineralised, north-south trending shear zone in
Birimian metasediments with intrusive feldspar porphyry bodies locally emplaced
within the shear zone. The drill programme was designed to test this north-south
shear zone, and also to examine the nature and extent of gold mineralisation
observed in east-west veins mapped within the shear zone.


Drilling Programme


A drilling programme of 21 reverse circulation drillholes was completed for a
total of 1,942 metres of drilling. Two of the planned drillholes were not
drilled due to access difficulties with the particular drillrig on site.


Holes were drilled on five NW-SE oriented fencelines, with all holes drilled to
either the NW or SE, depending on local ground conditions, at an angle of 50
degrees from the horizontal. Four of the fencelines were drilled in metasediment
and the fifth was in a 200 metre wide intrusive porphyry body in the southern
part of the drilled area. The hole depths were between 72 and 120 metres.


Assay Results


Within the metasediment, where 17 of the 21 holes were drilled, significant, ore
grade mineralisation has been found on each of the four fencelines drilled. The
mineralisation intersected on each fenceline is consistent with a mineralised,
sub vertical shear zone trending north - south, although continuity of the ore
zone between fencelines remains to be confirmed by additional drilling. The
density of drilling completed to date at Komana West is not yet sufficient to
accurately determine the disposition of the ore nor whether or not the
intersections obtained represent true widths. However, taking the mineralised
intersections in borehole KWRC 012 on Fenceline 1; borehole KWRC 002 on
Fenceline 2; boreholes KWRC 019 and KWRC 020 on Fenceline 3 and boreholes KWRC
006 and KWRC 007 on Fenceline 4, yields an average ore zone width of 20.3 metres
grading 11.58 grams/tonne (uncut) or 4.33 grams/tonne (cut) in what is a
potentially continuous zone over a strike length of 450 metres.


A previous announcement dated 12 December 2005 reported that grades of 53.6
grams/tonne (uncut) over 19 metres were intersected in hole number KWRC 002.
There were a number of samples from that hole for which assay values had not
been received from the laboratory at the time of the announcement. These have
since been received and both the width and the grade of the complete
intersection has now been increased to 20 metres grading 55.19 grams/tonne
(uncut) or 11.96 grams/tonne (cut) with the hole finishing in ore at 80 metres
depth.


Within the larger porphyry intrusive in the southern portion of the drilled
zone, not all of the planned holes were drilled due to access difficulties. Of
the four holes that were drilled, two intersected significant mineralisation.
Hole KWRC 023 intersected 2 metres grading 67.77 grams/tonne (uncut) or 15.61
grams/tonne (cut) between 35 and 37 metres depth. Additional mineralisation
within this hole was found at 43 metres depth (1 metre at 5.62 grams/tonne) and
between 67 and 70 metres depth (3 metres at 3.09 grams/tonne). Hole KWRC 016 was
drilled predominantly in the porphyry intrusive and intersected extensive
mineralisation including 9 metres at 4.47 grams/tonne (uncut) or 4.30 grams/
tonne (cut) between 31 and 40 metres depth. Of greater significance in this hole
perhaps, is the fact that the hole shows elevated gold values over 50 metres of
its entire 72 metre length.


All holes were sampled on a metre-by-metre basis and each sample was split to an
assay sample of nominal 2.5kg weight. Samples were assayed by SGS Analabs
Laboratories at Morila Mine, Mali, by fire assay with atomic absorbtion finish
using a 50 gm charge. All values assaying over 5 grams/tonne were reassayed with
a gravimetric finish. Where multiple assays were carried out, the values quoted
are the averaged assay values returned from the laboratory for that sample. A
full QA/QC programme of duplicate, blank and standard reference material samples
is in place for all assays.


Interpretation


The ore grade intersections in the metasediment in holes KWRC 002, 006, 007,
012, 019 and 020 may represent the intersection of a single structure along the
mineralised shear zone although the density of drilling to date is not
sufficient to prove this. These intersections occur over a strike length of 450
metres and at vertical depths from surface of up to 60 metres. Our initial
interpretation suggests that the structure may diverge in the southern part of
the drilled area, around the 200 metre wide intrusive porphyry body, over a
strike length of 350 metres. The limited drilling completed to date in the
porphyry confirms that it is persistently mineralised with clear potential for
significant additions to the mineralisation already established further north in
the metasediments.


Surface mapping completed since the commencement of the drilling programme now
shows that this mineralised shear zone extends at surface for at least a further
900 metres to the south of the porphyry, giving a currently delineated total
target strike length of 1.7 kilometres.


Drill testing of the additional 900 metres of strike length will be carried out
in the next drill programme which will also incorporate drillholes to complete
the initial drill testing of the larger porphyry body.


Conclusion


These results are extremely positive for the potential of the Komana West target
and will be followed up with an intensified drill campaign involving both
reverse circulation and diamond core drilling, further details of which will be
announced as soon as possible.


The more significant assay results are given in the table below in both cut and
uncut form. Further details of the drilling including hole locations and assay
grades will be posted shortly on our website at www.glencarmining.ie




For further information, please contact:

Glencar Mining plc
Hugh McCullough, Chief Executive
Tel: [phone]
e-mail: [e-mail]

Heneghan PR
Rachel Watchorn
Tel: [phone]
e-mail: [e-mail]


Table 1 - Assay intersections from the Komana West Drilling


Hole From To Width Au g/t Au g/t
m m m uncut cut to 30g/t

KWRC001 91 94 3 1.37 1.37
KWRC002 49 55 6 2.20 2.20
KWRC002 60 80 20 55.19 11.96
KWRC003 40 42 2 4.97 4.97
KWRC004 0 3 3 4.00 4.00
KWRC004 19 22 3 2.23 2.23
KWRC006 64 84 20 2.34 2.34
KWRC007 24 37 13 3.75 3.75
KWRC007 50 53 3 5.31 5.31
KWRC008 8 9 1 3.88 3.88
KWRC012 47 52 5 9.57 8.06
KWRC012 60 65 5 13.10 10.76
KWRC016 12 15 3 6.04 6.04
KWRC016 31 40 9 4.47 4.30
KWRC017 19 22 3 1.59 1.59
KWRC018 27 31 4 4.01 4.01
KWRC018 52 53 1 1.10 1.10
KWRC018 98 101 3 25.46 11.25
KWRC019 7 8 1 5.86 5.86
KWRC019 57 85 28 2.52 2.52
incl 63 69 6 8.81 8.81
KWRC020 33 45 12 1.13 1.13
KWRC023 3 6 3 1.30 1.30
KWRC023 35 37 2 67.77 15.61
KWRC023 43 44 1 5.62 5.62
KWRC023 67 70 3 3.09 3.09

[bongo bwana] 13/1/2006 16:13

My broker Bloxham advised yesterday that Willies had upped the bid from 7.00 to 7.25.

Joe's departure from Willies is old news.