Messaging International Share Discussion Threads

[llaird] 10/1/2012 10:51

hi mcbean, by the way Pete Landau discussed the MES deal at the investor presentation start of december, RRL/Puntland government were only a few weeks off finalising the deal with MES and getting the PSC signed, suggesting financing as nearly in place at that stage. factor in natural delays and it could be very close. shabeel spud ceremony is a landmark occassion and a logical time to not only shout about the first drill but to tell the world puntland means business, onshore and offshore. we shall see but must be close

[mcbeanburger] 10/1/2012 10:40

doubt it Llaird - mes share price will be helped and financing could also be helped by feeding frenzy on range/hrn et el.

agree chart looks good for continued rise... all buys yesterday and the day before. as stated its a sellers market right now.

[llaird] 10/1/2012 10:23

looking primed for resuming march northwards

wondering if deal may be announced at spudding ceremony for shabeel

[mcbeanburger] 05/1/2012 20:34

maybe but TA is good for mes and as you can see above from the market depth - nothing for sell. the buyers are more active also.

[llaird] 05/1/2012 20:23

MES up 20% at the moment McBean. news v soon?

[marlint111] 04/1/2012 20:35

1.) Yes- a worry, though I haven't read any implication or insinuation that MES was anything other than an entirely innocent bystander.
2.) I think the point is that the liquidators need to get shot of the 80m shares within a reasonable time frame. Any attempt to sell on the open market in such an illiquid share would push the price down to around this level anyway, and they'd struggle to find anyone to buy that many shares off them.
3.) ?
4.) Yes this is true, and a genuine risk. However, I would guess the liquidators would already have sounded out potential buyers before committing to the 0.15p per share offer.
5.) Don't know about Emblaze, however I do know that over the last couple of years Israel has become a bit of a tech hub, probably second only to Silicon Valley in the number of start-ups its churning out.
6.) Interim results show profit is increasing (£170k as opposed to 25k loss the year before). Last years EPS was 0.15p (giving a trailing P/E of 5.7). Post buy back (assuming it completes), the trailing EPS would increase to 0.25p , giving a trailing P/E of 3.4 .
7.) Yes- its always hard to tell on turnover, my main concern wouldn't be market risk (lots of their business is in the US with major telcos) but market saturation- how much extra demand is there out there for their messaging products.
8.) Yes

Once buyback is complete, the company should still have £270k in cash (net cash as of interims was £400k, and buyback costs are £128k)

My major concern is thus not the company itself (though always open to the idea that I could be completely wrong), rather the liquidity in the stock. As a holder of a small amount, my hope is that the company will grow, start to appear on people's radar, and this will give the liquidity a boost. However, I realise I will be in for a long wait!

[markt] 04/1/2012 17:23

...I just took a look at some of the news

My summary is
1) - MES connected to a company being forcibly closed by the FSA
1B) Other large investor, RTI seems to have bad results over last 10 years from what I can see. (NAV divided by 10)
Hence, is MES associated with losers ??


2) - the liquidator of that company looks in my opinion to be breaking the law if they complete the transaction to sell its 80M shares at 0.15p to MES as declared by MES......(by law, I understand that the official liquidator must try to obtain the maximum for shareholders of that company being liquidated....selling at 0.15p when the market price is 6 times higher looks blatently illegal to me

Will the FSA be back ?!

3) I repeat point 1 !!
4) Appears to me that at any moment the MES dirs. could announce that the sale has been cancelled and that the shareholder has sold to A.N.Other (at a higher price) (as is their right I believe)......and if so, then the share price rise due to expected reduction in number of shares would appear to be an intentional 'pump'.....and price fall could be expected

5) personally my experience with any company linked to Israel has been bad
(take a look at past history of Emblaze for example)

6) If the company makes around 300k and cap. value is 2M....for a small cap it perhaps looks fully valued. 6x profit. No tax recently, if taxed in next results then PAT could fall.

7) Recent turnover could be a spike, or could continue growing. There is a risk. (mentions messenging in Macedonia or Moldovia or somewhere...!)

8) Lots of messaging companies around

On plus side, it does report a profit, no debt (although may not have much or any current assetts if buys 80M shares at say 0.6p or 0.9p) and improving numbers.

in conclusion......MES, not for me
if it does in fact grow then maybe I take a look in a year or two...

[mcbeanburger] 04/1/2012 17:02

By at 2012-01-04

not much on sale....

[mostyn] 04/1/2012 12:47

Second stage of the buyback process should either have started or be starting soon.

From the buyback announcement:

"The Company intends to make an application to the Court to approve the Capital Cancellation on or around 1 January 2012 provided that the Resolutions have been passed at the General Meeting. If the Court approves the Capital Cancellation, it is expected that the Company will complete the Buyback on or about 15 February 2012.

The purchase of the Buyback Shares by the Company and their subsequent cancellation will reduce the number of Ordinary Shares in issue from 235,880,000 to 155,872,147; being equivalent to a reduction of approximately 33.92%. This will benefit Shareholders because they will hold a larger ownership stake in the remaining Ordinary Shares of the Company.

[mcbeanburger] 03/1/2012 08:54

barchart opinion is 72% buy on mes




with range doing well we should get some push as well..

[mcbeanburger] 29/12/2011 00:45

bomb attack against hrn? maybe

[mcbeanburger] 28/12/2011 14:03

good point - hopefully shields is waiting organise the financing inline with spudding.

[llaird] 28/12/2011 13:57

cheers McBean, i think it will be announced a week or so before spud, to attract more attention to the main event (for now at least)

[mcbeanburger] 28/12/2011 13:17

ah - mes need to finance the deal to complete the mou. its show me the money first then they can put their silverware on display.

talking to shields serveral weeks ago he had a number of sources all more then happy to fund... so unless he has made up his mind and both are working this period then we'll have news.

i would expect them to PR it in early Jan for best market response.

[llaird] 28/12/2011 13:05

hey McBean, was thinking offshore deal would be announced before spud, as Pete Landau suggested deal would be done/announced during december at the recent presentations

[mcbeanburger] 28/12/2011 12:58

hey llaird doubt there will be news - no one in banking works during this period.

spuding is the news for the moment.

looks like the shorters might win the day on rrl... needs to hold this position or better for the 4ma to cross the 20ema.

[llaird] 28/12/2011 12:54

all quiet on the MES front McBeanburger. Guess that can change anytime, possibly news before new year

[mcbeanburger] 28/12/2011 11:45

and btw note in the chart of rrl above the black line (4ma) will cross the 20ema (thin red) tomorrow. and yes that hasn't happpend since june.

so yes it's game on.!

[mcbeanburger] 28/12/2011 09:54

great chart on range...broke the longer term downward trend line AND has held it (so far). holding it is key.

times they are a changing.

[mcbeanburger] 23/12/2011 16:05

AOI - has broken out of the wedge..might need more time to retrace but looks good. in line with others doing well like rrl which has held today and completed a days worth of volume within half a daily.




the above bodes well for mes.

[mcbeanburger] 22/12/2011 21:28

mes has broken the downtrend... i would expect a retracement down before moving up. i will be interested in see how the buyers come in (or not!)



range move up to yesterday's highs... i would expect it to break that high of yesterday/today.

[mcbeanburger] 21/12/2011 16:41

range chart thoughts. daily looks normal = ie downward. but hourly suggest some upward momo building. note the 4ma crossing the 100ema retracing back and NOT crossing south but instead bouncing positively off. this suggest some longs are taking positions. if one is a longer term trader then one can ignore this its too early to confirm the trend but bottom pickers will take note.

the worst COULD be over.

[mcbeanburger] 17/12/2011 10:47

Africa Oil update - seems horn will be spudding will be in January.

[tomboyb] 16/12/2011 12:12

Increasing revenue - increasing profit - NO DEBT at all - now share capital reduced to around 150mill share - which at 1p give a market cap of 1.55mill roughly and making a decent profit of 400k+ - thats cheap!