Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[ba5hir is back] 05/12/2007 14:24

Write to the FSA cos they have misled investors.

[deanroberthunt] 05/12/2007 14:24

off to look at my DGO shares to cheer me up, stick to resource stocks from now on.....

[deanroberthunt] 05/12/2007 14:23

its just an instrument to carry out legal fraud, organised by the LSE/FSA et al...there's supposed to be rules governing visibility and transparency, it obviously doesn't apply then, just do what you like...how can peeps invest when they're being blatantly lied to.

[momentos] 05/12/2007 14:16

Bletherer it was that little word "our" between 8th August IMS and 6th September AGM. I did note it (here) at the time, but didn't act on it regrettably!


"Sales of Emanuel Ungaro and Ungaro Homme in Europe, including the UK, are encouraging and in line with expectations"

"Sales of Emanuel Ungaro and Ungaro Homme in Europe, including the UK, are encouraging and in line with our expectations "

All turned on one word....!

[deanroberthunt] 05/12/2007 14:13

well blow me....they're fully listed, they need to be bleedin more transparent....if they stated FY (previously) was ~5m pbt and now its suddenly ~0.8m they should have issued a profits warning..

[momentos] 05/12/2007 14:12

OK thanks for posting, even though the numbers dont seem to stack up.

If this is true guidance, the Morris (non RNS) comment about income too late for this year is increasingly significant. Given the share price performance chucking any and all bad news, charges etc into current results would not be a surprise.

[aim_trader] 05/12/2007 14:11

Article on Moss Bross profit warning today:

"Moss Bros - Issues a profit warning before key Christmas period
05-Dec-2007
Typically the first two weeks of the New Year are the most nerve racking for stakeholders in high street retailers...this year however, investors are being caught out by worrying trading updates beforehand!"

[bletherer] 05/12/2007 14:09

drh - They said "results will be slightly lower than anticipated". However they didn't say whose anticipations they were referring to - the market consensus forecast or MM's own private forecasts. Unfortunately my experience is that the wording can be important on these things - there can be a very significant difference between "management expectations" and "market expectations".

[pbracken] 05/12/2007 14:09

I just have the bald figures, momentos.

[pbracken] 05/12/2007 14:07

SCAP's figures ARE the forecast.

[momentos] 05/12/2007 14:07

Year Ending March 2007
Profit Pretax (£m) 6.7 Actual:8.3
Tax Rate (£m) 25.2% Actual: 25.2%
Undiluted Eps (p) 16.7 Actual 23p
Dividend (p)3.8 Actual 3.75p

So a little confused.....

Year Ending March 2008

Profit Pretax (£m) 0.8
Tax Rate (£m) 35%
Undiluted Eps (p) 1.9
Dividend (p) 4.3

Hmm, dividend cover looks a little light! This doesnt look right, do you have a textual analysis? If the 0.8 is correct, I think a bit of kitchen sinking may be going on into 2007 results, so 2008 can look nice and rosy.

[deanroberthunt] 05/12/2007 14:05

Don't/shouldn't we be advised directly from the company via RNS if they're going to miss forecasts by a country mile....8p eps as SCAP suggets...."FY profits will be materially/significantly below forecasts due to difficult retailing conditions balh blah blah"?

[bletherer] 05/12/2007 14:05

Looks like they are very pessimistic for 08 and very optimistic for 09; I'd be surprised if 08 is that low and 09 is anything like that high. But with eps of only 1.2 for the first half of 07-08 I have to think the final figure for 08 is going to be a lot nearer 1.9 than 19.6. Sure you didn't miss a decimal place there, drh?

[ba5hir is back] 05/12/2007 14:04

Carry on rampinmg but you are wasting your time. High st getting gloomier by the day and the latest to warn is Moss bros.

[ba5hir is back] 05/12/2007 14:03

Terrible debt and going nowhere.

[pbracken] 05/12/2007 14:03

On the contrary, deanrobert, house brokers are very influential precisely because they are so close to the company. Their expectations are the yardstick by which companies results are judged. I'm not saying they always get it right, but believe me SCAP's forecast of 1.9p EPS will not be 18p out, as you suggest.

[deanroberthunt] 05/12/2007 14:00

in my experience house brokers have little to no clue and the figures they present, based on history are quite frankly "plucked from thin air"....to be quite honest i don't know how they can draw a salary from what they do, its disgraceful.

[pbracken] 05/12/2007 13:58

No sooner said than done:

Consensus Forecasts Broker Forecasts


Company Name: Marchpole Holdings PLC Stock Code: MPH.L Index: FTSE Fledgling Status: FULL

Sector: Apparel Retailers Activity: Design, production and distribution of designer menswear and womenswear to the retail trade

Shore Capital (Recommendation : CORP) Forecast Date: 26-11-2007
Year Ending March 2010
Profit Pretax (£m) Tax Rate (£m) Undiluted Eps (p) Dividend (p) Cash Flow/Share (p) Net Asset Value (p)
0 0 0 0 0 0
Year Ending March 2009
Profit Pretax (£m) Tax Rate (£m) Undiluted Eps (p) Dividend (p) Cash Flow/Share (p) Net Asset Value (p)
6.3 35 15.6 5 0 0
Year Ending March 2008
Profit Pretax (£m) Tax Rate (£m) Undiluted Eps (p) Dividend (p) Cash Flow/Share (p) Net Asset Value (p)
0.8 35 1.9 4.3 0 0
Year Ending March 2007
Profit Pretax (£m) Tax Rate (£m) Undiluted Eps (p) Dividend (p) Cash Flow/Share (p) Net Asset Value (p)
6.7 25.2 16.7 3.8 0 0

[momentos] 05/12/2007 13:57

You may need to paste (exerpt) as link doesnt work for me. I last had:

John Stevenson, an analyst at Shore Capital, Marchpole's house broker, almost halved his full-year estimate for pretax profit to 4.2 million pounds from 8 million pounds. (= about 10.8p at 30% tax rate)

[pbracken] 05/12/2007 13:56

Why are your figures better than the house broker's, deanrobert?

[deanroberthunt] 05/12/2007 13:54

exactly!!!! its not your maths that is tosh, its just the figures are way out....not even in the same continent.

[pbracken] 05/12/2007 13:53

Momentos - here's the link for the latest SCAP forecast:

[momentos] 05/12/2007 13:51

pb where did you see that, last I heard it was about 10p EPS.

[pbracken] 05/12/2007 13:49

It's not my figure, deanroberthunt, it's SCAP. The (house) broker is forecasting an EPS of 1.9p. If you divide 45p by 1.9p you get the p/e ratio of c24. Just simple maths, of the kind I learnt in primary school.

Edit: if you have an issue with the forecast take it up with SCAP. But be aware that as the house broker, it is will be pretty well informed.