Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 05/12/2007 13:42

Year Ending Profit (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-Mar-08 5.32 19.60p 2.5 n/a -15% 4.30p 8.9%
31-Mar-09 4.24 15.60p 3.1 n/a -20% 5.00p 10.4%

these are what I'm working to, rightly or wrongly.

pbracken, your pe=24 figure is utter tosh imo.

[momentos] 05/12/2007 13:40

Ooooh it hurts: The Michael Morris Appreciation Society (not!)

Current Bid 43p.

Barclays: 3.27m on eve of results (c100p) Down 1.9m

Harvey Shulman: 25k @ 153p, 25k @ 60p, 112k @ 108.75p Down 105k

Ronald Stirling 99.5k @ 60p down 17k

Along with Rathbones etc who can't be best pleased... Barclays must be spitting blood, that top up on the eve of results.

Others:

Raymond Harris 15k @ ?109p
Michael Morris 5.2m direct, 1.5m trust: Down c 3.8m since results.

Interesting Factoid Since results Morris has bought, Molloy has bought, Shulman has bought, Stirling has bought. Chris Phillips has not, but he does have interests (directorships) in zillions of companies.

And the Acting Finance Director, Raymond Harris, could not be arm-twisted to buy a single share... draw your own conclusions!

[p0lzeath] 05/12/2007 13:38

I can believe that the future improves nicely going into 2008-9 but this fiscal looks decidedly dodgy, definitely worth waiting to see some data first IMV. Good luck holders.

[pbracken] 05/12/2007 13:35

polzeath - the revised EPS (from SCAP) is - wait for it - 1.9p, rising to 15p in Fiscal 2008/9. That puts the stock on a racy p/e of 24 for the current year. The market is clearly re-rating the stock on the former figure until there is evidence that the 2009 EPS is achievable.

[billbarton] 05/12/2007 13:24

Just waiting for the formal announcement that MM will offer a sub 50p price to take the Co off the market. This guy never learns.

[p0lzeath] 05/12/2007 13:23

Can't see why anyone would trust MPH to come up with EPS of more than 1.2p (H1) x 2, ie about 2.5p. Giving a current year PE ratio of 18x which suggests further weakness down to about 12-15x ie share price of 30-37.5p.

[taffee] 05/12/2007 13:14

if the shareprice keeps falling why bother paying a dividend....mm maintained the dividend to support the shareprice

Time will tell but all small/micro stocks seem to be slaughtered at the moment.

[momentos] 05/12/2007 13:10

All time chart (ex 1998 drop from equiv 400p IPO for scaling purposes)

[momentos] 05/12/2007 13:05

The 3.75p dividend is neither guaranteed nor sensible if there is not adequate dividend cover.

Thats a divi of 1m. If prospects for 2008/9 are looking less rosy at FY results, the company would be foolish to maintain it.

Whilst the unhealthy look of the current balance sheet is mainly due to credit extended to customers of good standing, there remains some longer term debt in need of clearing. This should be the priority for the health of the company.

30p seems to be a buy price for a few people!

[taffee] 05/12/2007 12:55

probably won't happen though ....think the market generally is a nightmare...loads of stocks fallen 50-70% for no reason at all.

Don't know why mm didn't just say ages ago that investors must realise the results for 2007 would be a one-off and turnover and profits would fall for the first year.

[wbjunior] 05/12/2007 12:53

Hi guys sorry to see this still falling, like bletherer keeping an eye on proceedings, have just taken small stake in cct and pet over last few days and hopefully these may offset my mph loses. Will rejoin if the price falls much lower.................wbj

[pbracken] 05/12/2007 12:52

Apologies bletherer, you beat me to it.

[pbracken] 05/12/2007 12:49

For a yield of 12% the share price would need to fall to 31p (6.2p in old money). Now THAT would be a bargain.

[bletherer] 05/12/2007 12:48

Divi of 3.75p - so you think MPH is going to 30p, then, taffee? I sold out on results day, unfortunately already after a good deal of the fall had taken place, but still thankful to have avoided the ongoing carnage. Dividend is starting to make it look reasonably attractive again at these levels, but I don't want to try to catch a falling knife. Support is at 40p and then 30p, looks like nothing's going to stop it at least reaching the first of those levels now. If it gets to 30p I'm a buyer, falling knife or no falling knife. Otherwise I'm watching for signs of stabilisation. Really should be good long-term value at these levels but along with the rest of the market I'm unimpressed by Mr. Morris's opaque presentation of the company's trading position and subsequent hissy fit. Obviously he has a strong financial incentive to try to turn it round again but sticking two fingers up at investors when they don't like his performance isn't going to help.

[momentos] 05/12/2007 12:47

PLUS:

05/12/2007 12:05:47 43.00 10,000
05/12/2007 11:58:01 44.00 10,000
05/12/2007 11:46:27 45.00 6,000
05/12/2007 11:41:40 45.00 10,000
05/12/2007 11:39:52 47.00 10,000
05/12/2007 08:54:38 47.55 1,772

LSE:

11:23:48 47.5 10,000
12:26:32 42 10,000

There are prior 10k drops, especially on Plus. Does suggest an overhang / exit.

[taffee] 05/12/2007 12:16

its across the board as well....perhaps with xmas coming....I guess if you hold,just hold on...if not..look out for a stupid(more stupid) price.

yield of 12% coming.

There is clearly a bit of an overhang too......someone wants to dump and the mms know it........t+20 purchases end soon.

[vixen] 05/12/2007 12:12

They really don't want to hold any and the seller reappeared today. 40p look's very likely now!

[cosnova] 05/12/2007 12:10

soemone sells 10k and the price falls, someone buys 843,000 and price stays static, It's starting to look like a stitch up between a broker and the market to push out the small investors

[taffee] 05/12/2007 12:02

really becoming stupid now.........

[deanroberthunt] 04/12/2007 20:14

Best yield in the FTSE......9% rising to 10.5%.....

[eagle eye3] 04/12/2007 16:11

I do not think BHS buys Ungaro, More important Goldman sacs bonus pool up

[dan de lion] 04/12/2007 13:26

Good job MPH shipped all its winter stock weeks ago then!

[ba5hir is back] 04/12/2007 10:42

Philip Green warns of Christmas slump right against the high st...

[ba5hir is back] 04/12/2007 10:42

Philip Green warns of Christmas slump right against the high st...

[vixen] 03/12/2007 17:52

thanks dan I was being careful on estimates because it is a new line and presumably will take some time to get into the various countries. Either way at this price I'm holding for a strong Xmas and new year bounce.