Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 15/11/2021 11:42

Hi Polaris; yes, an unbelievable price but you then have to price-in the Teo factor and the mine jurisdiction.
If you want to review elsewhere, may I suggest you take a look at Serabi Gold (LON:SRB). It’s currently rated at PPE of 4.0, and PEG of 0.1 with production expected to rise circa 25% next year and a 2023 exit run-rate increase of a further 85%. The Spring fraud shenanigans has now been closed-out but the stock is still on at a suppressed price IMHO.
.
As usual, DYOR! tightfist

[polaris] 15/11/2021 10:31

Nice few days of slow, but steady, rises in price on ASX. That, plus the dividend from AGM, means I am back into a profit. I've added another 15 k or so here over last few trading weeks. It's still trading at an unbelievable discount to peers, especially in a rising pog environment.

[polaris] 05/11/2021 12:01

Not for me. I just put an order into the book. Tends to be filled within the apparent bid-offer spread. Like an AT trade really and then IG add about 0.2 points onto the price of the trade as executed through the market order book. It’s a risk balance trade as you have to look at daily costs versus margin employed wrt both capital and dividend return, annualised. For now, this works better for me than fully buying shares.

[polaris] 04/11/2021 07:36

Ex-dividend last night. Money in my IG account already as trading SBs. Also no tax or conversion charges.

[deka1] 29/10/2021 19:31

Thanks Chip , hope your family issue improves ,i am plodding along lol i am now 75 years, stroke survivor , and never had a cigarette for 5 years,
i could still murder one lolol ,
take care of yourself old pal.
and all the luck in the world to you and yours.

[chipperfrd] 29/10/2021 11:52

Hi Dek,

Good to hear from you as well, it's been a long time,

I am very well but do have a worrying issue within my immediate family which is my main priority currently - so tend to spend less time on BBs these days.

However, still take an active interest in the market (especially PMs) when I have time at home and continue to maintain numerous excel models whenever possible.

Look after yourself Dek. All the best.
Chip

[polaris] 29/10/2021 11:06

I was back in the market last night in oz. Happy to put my money where my fingers (mouth) are.

edit
Limit order was filled a little before 6 am. Interesting post-market declared trade of over 0.5 M.

For anyone wanting to trade, i use IG and mostly operate on their limit order system. I have, on occasion, set an alarm to wake me up mid session to place trades manually but the limit order system has been reliable, both to buy and sell, to date.

[polaris] 29/10/2021 11:01

Hi tightfist (and others),

The dividend wasn't pulled but there was an expectation in the market that there would be a FY dividend on top of the HY dividend announced. MML decided not to declare a dividend but now a rethink. Excellent!!

A$0.07 in 2021, looking at the share price average, the yield close to 10 %. share price opened 2021 at A$0.773 and is heading to end the year around the same price. You can argue that gold has taken a tumble since January, 200DMA on 3rd Jan was near $1860 and stands at $1790 today, but MML have happily met production targets and AISCs.

MML are maintaining the cash pile in the high $70s M, despite returning $8 M in dividends to investors and spending $8.3 M (to date in 2021) on Tiger Way. Going forward, the AISCs are expected to be about $50 higher for FY22 and pog $70 less than FY21.

This will impact FCF, note that cash increase in FY21 from $47.1 M to $72.2 M. Combining the increases in AISCs with lower pog, dividends and expenditure on Tiger Way, the expectation is that cash pile will remain broadly steady in FY22.

Some may see that as a negative, to go from $25 M FCF to zero. I do not because the cash is being used to secure the long-term future of the mine (Tiger Way access) and to give returns to (long suffering) investors. With the second dividend in 2021, that's near $10 M in cash returns, effectively spread over two FYs, as MML run July-June. Show me another miner today that runs near 10 % yield.

Pure Gold was pointed out to me again recently as an opportunity. They are a narrow vein underground miner based in Canada. They reported 9.6 k oz of production for Q3, have $24 M in cash but also a debt facility drawn down to $85 M and have not reported clear AISCs. Market cap? EV?

...

...

MC is C$450 M
EV is near £280 M


MML have more than double the production, zero debt, a huge cash pile and well defined AISCs. They also have a more than 10 year production profile of converting indicated and inferred resource into reserves and then mining them. MC? EV?

...

...

MC is A$160 M
EV is under £40M

Even more bizarrely, Pure Gold were capitalised at near C$1 Bn earlier in the year. It's like MML live in a parallel universe.


Last point in this post - MML plant operates at around 50 % of nameplate capacity. It always has due to the bottleneck of hoistage. Tiger Way has the chance to give much better access to the mine and to greatly increase hoistage. It'll be more economical to access certain ore from L2-L10 that is not deemed economical now. Plus there is the fact that the deposit is open at depth and there is now a satellite deposit taking shape with drilling. If MML get that ore to plant then cash flow can increase markedly.

[deka1] 28/10/2021 17:38

Hi chip hope you are well ,good to see you old friend.
Dek

[chipperfrd] 28/10/2021 14:22

Amazing under-valuation of this stock continues.

[polaris] 28/10/2021 11:55

I was expecting a dividend at the FY results of anything up to A$0.05 on top of that already paid. I was very disappointed. This announcement was unexpected but welcome. I trade SBs online so don't have to deal with tax issues. I get the full unfranked dividend. I also trade in GBP equivalent so for me it is 2p per share and 7p for the year to date.

[polaris] 28/10/2021 11:51

Normally I would agree with you but take a read of the Chairman report yesterday. For once, Chairman Teo ;-) spoke about shareholders!

[tightfist] 28/10/2021 10:07

Hi Polaris,

Yes, it seem a strange time. My recollection is that the Dividend was pulled a few months ago - but has just been reinstated? Maybe my memory is playing tricks! Maybe the ii's are finally flexing their muscles!

As the for likelihood of MML (ie AT) pushing investor returns, unfortunately Leopards and Spots come to mind..... tightfist

[polaris] 28/10/2021 09:05

What did the market do? Sweet FA. Still at A$0.76. MML is now a near 10 % yield, while holding a net cash pile that could easily pay 100 % of FCF going forward as dividend if they chose to really push investor returns.

[polaris] 28/10/2021 08:55

That's a strange time to announce a dividend but is a total of A$0.07 per share in last 12 months. Moving Tiger Way forward and paying a dividend while doing so AND keeping a strong net cash position would go down very well with me!

[c9ajl] 28/10/2021 01:33

Chairman's Address Messagehttps://www.medusamining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/211028_chairmansaddressagm2021.pdf

[c9ajl] 28/10/2021 01:23

Dividendhttps://www.medusamining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/211028_dividendpaymentannouncement.pdf

[geckotheglorious] 25/10/2021 20:43

Strangely cant access the pdf



This site can’t be reachedThe connection was reset.
Try:

Checking the connection
Checking the proxy and the firewall
ERR_CONNECTION_RESET

[speedsgh] 25/10/2021 11:21

"SP bears little relation to the performance here."

No, but there is an unbelievably strong correlation between the share price and the tenure (in various roles and guises) of the current MD. Mr Teo joined the board of MML in Feb 2010 and became Chairman in Nov 2013. His record at MML speaks for itself. A succession of failed MD appointments which has resulted in Mr Teo now occupying the seat himself. Surely nobody expects the company's rating/share price to take a turn for the better until Mr Teo no longer has anything to do with MML?

[polaris] 25/10/2021 09:33

Cash pile still growing, despite costs for Tiger Way, higher AISCs and lower gold price received. share price bears little relation to the performance here. Cash now accounts for approaching 70 % of market cap and EV is less than $50 M. madness.

[c9ajl] 25/10/2021 07:59

Quarterly Reporthttps://www.medusamining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/211025_september2021quarterlyreport.pdf

[geckotheglorious] 27/9/2021 15:25

More gold sector M&A coming

"Kirkland Lake Gold spikes on sale speculation"

Kirkland Lake Gold (KL +7.7%) shoots higher after IK News reports that the company is marketing itself to the highest bidder.
According to the report, the sales process is in an advanced stage, with at least four companies still in the process and "one has now emerged as the clear favorite," although that company is not specified.
"This deal could be announced at any moment and is the driving force behind KL's share price outperformance these last two weeks," the report says.




Will it be Barrick , or Newmont? Or someone else.
4 bidders at least!

Private Equity a possibility imo

[geckotheglorious] 27/9/2021 11:23

Polaris
"Why would a major buy it?"

Money.

Why does anyone buy a gold miner? Or gold? Or any asset for that matter.