Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[stevea171] 09/7/2015 15:56

Your moment has come, Mr Tsipras, take back control of your country - Nigel Farage (4 mins)

[stevea171] 09/7/2015 11:49

Goldminer. I don't think Geoff would allow the new Service shaft work to derail his forecast of 95-100k oz for the FY. I am still expecting 100k oz plus or 29-30k oz in Q4. But I agree that he is trying to move expectations down by his release of info about the Service shaft, connecting drives, and ventilation shaft/s in the last two RNS's.

Volume on the ASX for MML has been very low for some months now. In particular it is a buyers strike more than sellers rushing for the exit because they have heard on the grapevine that production has fallen off a cliff in Q4! Buying interest is just not there but small sellers are ever present who don't know or don't care what value they realise from selling at this point in time ....

[atlantic57] 09/7/2015 11:02

Nielc

My difficulty is that since around say the end of 2011 the gold price has fallen significantly. Whatever the reasons behind that fall unless we can see the paper price rise then surely all gold miners will continue to trade at lower levels.

The authorities to date have succeeded in keeping the price down what will it take to stop them.

Given all the circumstances that have unfolded in the world you really do wonder !!

[goldminer70] 09/7/2015 10:52

I hope I am wrong but I am fearful that the production figures due at the end of this month are going to be very disappointing and worse than the 3rdQ slightly disappointing figure announced in April.

At the start of the year the share price hovered around 0.7A$ or 40p. It went up at the end of March to about 1A$, but last nights figures of 0.77A$ nearly brought it back to the beginning of the years figure. But the A$/£ rate has deteriorated some 12% since the start of the year so that the UK share price is down to 37p.

I wonder if last weeks RNS was a gentle hint that because of the construction work on the lift shaft the production figure for the 4thQ is going to be lower than the 3rdQ disappointing figure.
Otherwise the share price would not be faring so badly. I think the spies on the Australian market have a fair idea of what is happening in the Phillipines.

As I said initially I hope I am wrong.

Goldminer70

[nielsc] 09/7/2015 09:21

atlantic,

Yes the price of paper gold and silver has gone down, when you would think it would be a safe haven in these turbulent times. I would reckon that the precious metal prices are being suppressed so as to keep the market from panicking.

As Steve has posted that behind the price drop demand for the physical is pretty high. I read that the US mint wont take any more orders for Silver Eagles until August. Strange that the price should go down when there is such demand, but we all know what is really going on :-)


Cheers,
Niels

[stevea171] 09/7/2015 07:55

Is the global crash beginning ahead of time? (pencilled in for September)

Is this the moment when gold, silver and PM miners start to break out? Premiums on physical silver coins in the US skyrocket, the US Mint shuts down for lack of silver, demand for gold/silver coins rockets in Greece, Europe, US, etc.

Meanwhile the slide here continues with sellers of MML continuing to overwhelm the very few buyers. Is this company specific or a blind funk on the part of buyers due to the dash to cash ahead of what is coming down to world markets following on from the crash in China, the declared insolvency of Greece, Ukraine, Puerto Rico, et al. From what we know of the fundamentals here, more likely the latter .....

A few headlines:

Demand For Physical Silver Is Exploding

European Stocks, Chinese Stocks And Commodities Are All Crashing – Are U.S. Stocks Next?

Insider Warns Credit Market is SHUTTING DOWN, $75 Trillion Implosion Looms

Was The Suspicious NYSE Trading Halt An Attempt To Stop A Crash In U.S. Markets?

Utter Desperation: Chinese Police Vow To Arrest "Malicious Short Sellers"

[deka1] 08/7/2015 17:32

Atlantic hi, gold trading don't much follow logical influences any more,its totally rigged by the futures markets fraud naked shorting by the Fed proxies.
Till the fraudulent trades are stopped gold will go the way the USA wants it to go. good luck mate, see the NYSE has been shut down since around 11-00 am.
Technical glitch they say, no trading at all.

[atlantic57] 08/7/2015 16:14

Am i alone in being completely bemused by the gold market!
i would have through that gold would roar ahead with the instability that a Greek exit would bring.

The opposite seems to be happening !
With the risk of Grekit the gold price was falling.

With the possibility of a deal being done gold now seems to be rising.

[jfishy55] 08/7/2015 09:15

Thanks Steve.

[jimbowen30] 07/7/2015 14:29

SP Angel view

Medusa Mining (MML AU) A$0.805, Mkt Cap A$167m – Progress on New Service Shaft at the Co-O Mine
Buy Target Price Under Review
• The company have updated on the service shaft being constructed to Level 8 which will free up the L8 shaft for ore capacity.
• The men and materials service shaft is expected to be installed by Q2 2016.
• The announcement shows a schematic work completed to date and work that is due to be completed.
• The 2m x 2m Alimak raise (the vertical excavation that leads to a raise) is 70% complete (250m out of 350m) from Level 8 to Level 3.
• The shaft headframe, main winder and sinking equipment are scheduled to arrive in Q4 2015 and once installed will be used to widen the shaft to its final size of 3.2m by 3.65m.
• Once this shaft is completed, all men and material will be moved to the service shaft leaving the L8 shaft to achieve planned capacity of 1,700 tpd.
Conclusion: Having the new services shaft in place frees up capacity in the L8 shaft and will enable the company to achieve the mining rate to be more in tandem with the mill expansion to 2500 tpd. Guidance for FY 2015 is 95-100 oz (June year end) with 71,817 oz achieved in three quarters already. For next year guidance steps to 120-130,000 with AISC of US$960-US$1060/oz – the latter should come down as mining and milling run more efficiently.
At the lower end of production targets for next year (120,000 oz) and the upper end of AISC, the company should be generating cash of around US$17m pre capex and post discretionary exploration at a US$1,200/oz giving strong valuation support. We remain buyers.

[stevea171] 07/7/2015 12:27

Jfishy. Yes, the 2 me x 2 me initial size of the shaft is completed at the lower levels. Later it has to be widened to full size (3.2 me x 3.65 me) and there have to be passageway connections on all the levels to connect with the new shaft. So some of this spoil has been coming up L8 shaft in the latest quarter and probably will continue to do so as the extra work progresses.

From Q3 report:
"Underground Alimak rising work has commenced and surface works have commenced during April."

17/6 announcement:
"Production for the forthcoming year will be tempered by the medium-term waste generating infrastructure projects being undertaken during the installation of the Service Shaft, new ventilation rises and drives for connecting levels to the Service Shaft. These works commenced in April 2015."

[jfishy55] 07/7/2015 12:05

Stevea171,

Looking at the diagram in the RNS, I got the impression that all the lower levels were completed?

[stevea171] 07/7/2015 11:26

Good progress has been made on the new Services shaft.

As per Rob's comments to me at the Mayfair presentation a few months ago, completion is likely to be in Q2 next year (not Q3).

"The rope guided man-cage is scheduled to be installed in the second quarter 2016."

I wasn't aware till now that the excavation is being done from the bottom as well as the top similtaneously. This means that extra spoil from the new shaft and connecting tunnels on all the lower levels is having to go up the L8 shaft for disposal, reducing the capacity for ore and having a knock on effect on production whilst these activities are in progress.

[speedsgh] 07/7/2015 08:43

Co-O Mine Service Shaft Update -

[deka1] 07/7/2015 06:49

MEDUSA MINING LIMITED ABN: 60 099 377 849 Unit 7, 11 Preston Street Como WA 6152 PO Box 860 Canning Bridge WA 6153 Telephone: [phone] Facsimile: 618-9367 0602 Email: [e-mail] Internet: www.medusamining.com.au ANNOUNCEMENT 7 July 2015
Co-O MINE SERVICE SHAFT UPDATE
Medusa Mining Limited (“Medusa”; or the “Company”;), through its Philippine affiliate, Philsaga Mining Corporation (“PMC”), is pleased to advise a progress update on the construction of the Service Shaft to Level 8 at the Co-O Mine which commenced in April 2015. Figure 1 schematically illustrates the description and progress of the Service Shaft. The Alimak (i) (2 metres x 2 metres) raise has completed 250 metres of the 350 metres from Level 8 up to Level 3 and a new Alimak nest (ii) is now being excavated at Level 3, and will continue for 100 metres to Level 1. The second concrete pour out of seven for the collar of the Service Shaft is complete and once the collar is fully formed, a blind sink of 33 metres to Level 1 will be undertaken using a crane and kibble (iii). The shaft headframe, main winder and sinking equipment are scheduled to arrive during the last quarter of 2015 and once installed, a sinking stage will be used to widen the shaft to its final dimensions (3.2 metres x 3.65 metres) (iv) from Level 1 to Level 8. Installation of ground support to the walls and equipping the level accesses between Levels 3 to 8 will be done simultaneously. The rope guided man-cage is scheduled to be installed in the second quarter 2016. On commissioning, all men and material movement will be transferred to the Service Shaft from the L8 Shaft, and the latter will then be used exclusively to hoist ore, to attain its planned capacity of 1,700 tonnes per day.
Geoff Davis, CEO of Medusa, commented: “The construction of the Service Shaft has got off to a great start and should be completed within the estimated timelines with all long lead times items ordered and being manufactured.”

[eintracht] 07/7/2015 02:38

Co-O Mine Service Shaft Update released here in Oz 11AM Oz Time.

[chipperfrd] 05/7/2015 11:08

The situation for silver on Comex is certainly extreme!

We have to wait until Monday for the latest COT report from the Comex because of the US holiday.

I await it with interest, particularly for silver. The previous report (23 June) showed a record open-interest of 200,273 contracts - ie. c. 31,143 tonnes, which is more than a full years worth of mine supply. Quite how this can be viewed as a 'normal' futures market (ie. allowing producers to hedge future production) when so clearly it is vastly greater than any possible amount of producer hedging.

Perhaps this is what is now so troubling: ie the market has become a sham but it is is now so blatantly a pure paper casino with both sides being purely speculators with no reference whatsoever to 'normal' futures activity by producers - yet it is a market that still sets the price of physical silver worldwide!

Just for the record: I find it interesting that even though the 'Large Speculators' short position is at a record high of 58,697 contracts there has been a corresponding record increase to 74,254 contracts held on the 'Large Speculator' long side. So clearly, in spite of a declining silver price there are still a substantial number of parties taking the long side and they must have very deep pockets indeed!

As ever, the net long positions held by the 'Speculators' are balanced by the so-called 'Commercials'. Their short positions on the 23 June were 103,320 contracts and their long positions were 73,843 contracts - ie net short 29,477 contracts.

Let's see what the numbers look like for 30 June when they are released on Monday. Surely not another new record for leveraged paper! - but I won't hold my breath!

Have a good weekend and let's also hope that the Greeks actually vote for financial freedom today.
Chip

[stevea171] 04/7/2015 21:15

ABX hasn't gone away according to Andrew Maguire yesterday. Coming soon.

Silver to be $20 higher by the time we reach Q4/2015. In 40 years trading he has never seen a more bullish set up for silver. We're at an unprecedented inflection point. Same applies to gold.



Andrew Maguire Says Short Selling Of Gold And Silver Was Done By Central Banks To Avoid Another Lehman Moment and Warns The Price Of Silver Is Set To Skyrocket In A Massive Short Squeeze

[chipperfrd] 30/6/2015 12:38

Justin,

The development outlay is non-discretionary. They have to keep developing new stopes in order to provide future tonnage as the current stopes are depleted.

Hence, there is no possibility of using the $40m budgeted for development over FY16 for either share buy-backs or dividends.

The MD was quite clear that they will rebuild their cash pile before considering a resumption of dividends. They were clearly shaken by the factors that conspired to shrink their available cash in 2013 and they have no intention of putting the company at risk again in these market conditions - and I would agree with that!

The company is chronically under-valued on it's current earnings generation. It is taking an age for the market to wake up to the numbers - and of course it may well take a lot longer. Frankly, another year is neither 'here nor there' as far as I am concerned because it all looks pretty inevitable that the share price will eventually be accorded a far more favourable multiple (and way above +30%!).
Chip

[eintracht] 30/6/2015 10:58

If the Greek crisis cannot make the price of Gold head a fair bit north then nothing will.

[bluelynx] 30/6/2015 08:49

Justin

I personally believe that a share buy back would not be a good idea, I much prefer the management to take the long term view and invest for the future. The Market sentiment for Gold Miners is at all time lows, plus some, and especially for MML given their disappointing performance over the last few years. If the management can regain the confidence of investors by beating targets then existing shareholders will be well rewarded, patience required, and given the many positives for Gold I think we will not have too long to wait given the numerous financial and political time bombs that could ignite very soon.

[justinjjbuk] 30/6/2015 02:08

Chip: With MML now trading well below 3X FY 15/16 earnings, I think management have to ask themselves whether they can match the 30% plus return on investment that they could get from buying back their own stock. So will the $40 million in investment earmarked for development give them a 30% plus ROI? I very much doubt it.

I understand the need to maintain the business as a going concern, but I think that management should recognise that their ultimate responsibility is to maximise shareholder value. Management's role is to act as the agents of the shareholders. At the stock's current valuation, I think management has a duty to start making signals about dividends or buybacks. Even the earmarking of $10 million of free cash flow to boosting shareholders' returns would be a powerful signal to the market that management think the current share price is wrong.

[stevea171] 28/6/2015 09:35

Interesting day for markets and PM's coming tomorrow?

If Greece Blows Up And Financial Armegeddon Hits, Gold Will Go “Bid Without”
June 28, 2015 by The Doc

The only way to prevent financial Armageddon is to declare all markets on holiday. However, the most interesting market to watch will be the re-pricing of the market for physical precious metals. Even if they suspend the trading of fraudulent paper futures trading, an over-the-counter – or even “black” market – for physical bullion will develop.

This is because, unlike futures contracts, buyers and sellers can effectuate an exchange of physical for fiat paper.
Of course, I believe that this market would open up “bid without,” meaning buyers will stick bids out looking for offers.
There’s nothing more terrifying in the markets than trading a market that goes “bid without” when you are short.

The short position will cause heart attacks and Bill Murphy’s prediction that they will carry gold shorts out of the Comex on stretchers will come to fruition.

[tightfist] 25/6/2015 15:43

Hi Chip,

Thanks for your download on the Resources picture; I don't believe there is an issue, but I think that it's currently ammunition for the detractors (I vividly remember GD's brief aside to the audience during the AGM video last Autumn).

It's reassuring to see that at least one analyst has a pulse; during the last seven days the Yahoo! consensus forecast has crept up for next year. And the chart looks as though it may be bottoming too, after some sort of capitulation during the last hour of trading last Friday, whilst volume peaked at a 3-month high.

Cheers, tightfist