Medsea Estates Share Discussion Threads

[giddygoat] 27/4/2007 17:17

Lazy Mistertibbs, U didnt imagine that percentage! the Chairman did say "selling prices (in Italy) remain buoyant having risen by approximately 40 per cent in the last 12 months."

Of course ur spot on that we sold more units in March.
My comment in post105 was to say, unit sales Growth nearly doubled Jan/Feb from same period '06 (161 vs 83) Seasonally poor months.
March's increase was lower (100 vs 63)Still up well over 50%. Lets hope they can keep this up.
As shown by the Independents sell recommendation this stock is not understood IMO. "The bulk of its sales were in oversupplied Spain." This is not now the case as the Unit Sales show. More sales were in Italy than Spain and 1st quarter sales in Spain were still up on last year. Like you say Mistertibbs the P/E is very low already yet we are seeing very positive growth here.
Best of Luck everyone

[mistertibbs] 27/4/2007 11:05

I didn't realise our house broker is HB and I will be speaking with them on monday so hope to have info on their p/e guess if they have one.

[mistertibbs] 27/4/2007 08:34

I must have imagined 40% or read something else. Sorry

[mistertibbs] 27/4/2007 08:18

giddygoat...just looking back on your post 105 and not sure about slowing down. 1st 2 months 161 units, 3rd month 100 units. That looks to me a bit more? Total units for Italy for the year 250 and already 151 sold in the first quarter. Not bad. I wonder if they might get more next year? Did I also see an increase in Cambria prices 40% or did I imagine that. Too lazy to look back Nice if the margins kept up that pace.

Didn;t see any brokers cover this. Would have thought the house broker would be saying something. Current p/e under 6 so any progress will take us lower. My goodness, can't be many with a p/e much lower.

[giddygoat] 26/4/2007 20:17

Thanks jwe, if you remember where that would be even better. Hope it wasnt from my guess in post 86 :-)



No reason to think we cant expect 3.5p. We may have to be patient but we will get our reward IMO

[jwe] 26/4/2007 15:01

I thought the EPS forecast for 2007 was 3.5p but can`t remember where that came from.If that`s correct current p/e is around 4.5 WITH an `in line` statement.Too cheap IMO

[mistertibbs] 26/4/2007 13:16

Well I have.

[mistertibbs] 26/4/2007 12:49

That's a damn good update to me, considering the single digit p/e. What more does this bloody market want, blood? Must seriosly consider a decent top up, decent at my level that is.

[flateric] 26/4/2007 07:48

I forecast genuine growth in share price. There, does that count?

Fundamental Data

Mkt.Sector AIMT Mkt.Segment AIMI
Turnover 13.30 Profit 2.89
Norm EPS 2.66 P/E Ratio 6.02
Market cap 11.25 NMS 500

[giddygoat] 25/4/2007 23:33

Looks like Unit Sales growth is slowing after a blistering start to 2007. I make it 100 units this March vs 63 March'06. Still well ahead though!

"current trading is in line with market expectations"

- Does anyone have any forecasts to post please ?

[giddygoat] 25/4/2007 22:14

Todays Trading Update:

Medsea has noted today's UK press commentary on the Spanish property market and
in the light of the subsequent share price movement this morning, the Company is updating the market on first quarter trading.

•Unit sales in Spain in the first quarter of 2007 were marginally ahead of
last year at 110 compared to 105 unit sales in the same period of 2006.

•Unit sales in Italy were 151 in the first quarter of 2007 compared to 41
in the first quarter of 2006.

•Since the first quarter, current trading across the Company is in line
with market expectations.

Tony Gatehouse, Chairman, commented "While there have been some issues in the
Costa del Sol market, that is a localised problem and Medsea does not operate in that region. We are selling residential property in other coastal areas where selling prices are being sustained and demand from international buyers, who account for the bulk of our sales, remains firm.

"Meanwhile our operations in Italy are performing particularly strongly as can
be seen in the first quarter sales and selling prices remain buoyant having
risen by approximately 40 per cent in the last 12 months."

[mistertibbs] 25/4/2007 15:16

I take it the price has gone up. Not looked yet. Good for you jwe.

[jwe] 25/4/2007 15:08

Just added 10k@16.5p

[jwe] 25/4/2007 14:59

Those people who sold out this am must be gutted starting to look too cheap;-)

[mistertibbs] 25/4/2007 10:58

Agree in total redm1re. I am considering selling some profit makers, in fact just sold out of rcg with all the uncertainty hanging around it now. The market to me is looking distinctly dodgy, especially Mr Schwartz talking about such rare events with falls in the ftse index in both Jan and Feb usually resulting in bear markets. What was it 8 times out of 9 since 1937 so this is rare and could be problematic. Falls been usually 20% and often more. We shall see.

My holding in MEA is a mere 4500 shares so not a major loss but was looking to top up. However, I don't like attempting to catch falling knives. I see the independent says sell mea today. That's a double ouch.

Back in Tan. For a longer term investment, this is looking good and my recent starting of a share club between friends and relatives will join you in the next monthly installment. I would be concerned if competition emerged but the outlook, desoite my feelings on the market outlook, are positive and share your optimism on TAN. I was looking at eps of 1.1 for the year. Took me a few moments to see it was for 6 months. Sorry for the o/t folks.

You selling out of London, already? Hope your new employment goes well and trust there are loads of dosh sloshing about for your property sale and immediately turns the other way when it comes to buying. Well, you can always hope.

[redm1re] 23/4/2007 15:21

There are bubbles everywhere I look right now, or that's how it feels. Too much cheap money sloshing round the world, needs to be taken out. (after I sell my house preferably!)

Just bought back in to TAN this morning

Banked my profits before and after the results as expected it to dip a bit and buy back in later. That never really happened.

It won't be a four bagger again for me, but should still be some mileage in it over the next couple of weeks with good trade show announcements. They are very good at news management. We might get 150p soon. It will def be high enough by then!

[mistertibbs] 23/4/2007 14:23

I know what you mean redm1re. My holding is very small so will hold and watch but it is a minimum for me. Article from the ft so not sure about it being yet another bubble story.

We also must be aware of the strength of euro against £ as it will affect buying power/costs.

And just look at tan go. Bloody good announcement over there. Still not in it.

[redm1re] 23/4/2007 14:17

The second tick down this morning was probably down to me selling 5k shares. Hardly the last of the high rollers but felt it right to reduce my risk profile here. Of more concern though is the spread of upto 2.5p. I know they are lightly traded but that is disproportionate and frankly greedy

Think I might become an MM!

[pujababy] 23/4/2007 13:32

dont hold anymore BUT (read my earlier post)

these type of bubble bust stories have been going on for quite a while and always do the rounds. I am pretty close to the spanish estate market and can say without doubt that the real estate side is still very strong and will be for many years to come. the demand is still very high for spanish homes, and even the current economics are favourable.

we'll still be seeing good growth through several years still and no doubt will see few more of the type of 'bust' stories to come.

as far as MEA goes, its such a volatile rns sensitive stock, its nice to get in and out, although longterm it seems very good for the growth.

;-)

[redm1re] 22/4/2007 20:27

Hmmm!

Glad therefore that I didn't pick up anymore. Even more glad that I start a job on Tuesday, rather than the overseas estate agency I have been thinking about.

There is no doubt there is a lot of development going on out there. My concerns over inflation and risng interest rates in the UK are offset somewhat by Spain being a much wider market, attracting interest from other european and also russian buyers.

My exposure here is small and the recent trading statement gives some comfort, but there is no doubt it could be a bit of a rough ride. I will keep it under review for now

Thanks Mistertibbs

[mistertibbs] 22/4/2007 16:44

Hope this dosen't dull our enthusiasm

COMPANIES EUROPE: Spain's real estate groups hit by fears of 'bubble'
By Leslie Crawford in Madrid
Spanish real estate companies took a hammering in the stock market yesterday as evidence mounted that Spain's 10-year property boom is over.

Shares fell in Fadesa, Inmocarral, Colonial, Metrovacesa and Urbis, after a year of feverish speculation that had seen real estate stocks rise by more than 1,000 per cent in some cases.

But yesterday, disappointing data on house prices and reported trouble with some companies triggered a big sell-off.

House prices rose 7.2 per cent in the first quarter, the lowest increase in eight years, according to data published yesterday by the housing ministry. In many regions, house prices are falling.

The ministry said there was now oversupply, with licenses issued for 800,000 new housing starts compared with an estimated demand for 600,000. Builders say there has been a rush to apply for construction licences ahead of stringent new environmental standards that come into force this year, and that this has added to the glut of unsold property





But according to Spanish trading houses, these kind of valuations for real estate companies are a thing of the past. "The Spanish real estate sector is not a bubble, it is a huge balloon. When it blows up there will be an enormous bang," said one Madrid trader. "Analysts have become nervous about the debt load of some companies, including Sacyr, and the quality of assets that are underpinning them."

Traders said most investment funds had already exited the real estate sector, and that the free float for many of the listed companies was very small.

[drain] 19/4/2007 12:48

It does still seem totally under-valued and I thought this in February when I bought at 13.4p expecting eps for 2006 of marginally more than 2.0p. The main concern for me then --and still now-- was the credibility of the company following the announcement of a (small) loss in the year after joining AIM.Afterall it was only an estate agency so would not expect it to be on a high P/E but after that setback it will take a long time for the market to gain confidence in the management( who control the company).

I invested because of the potential property development profits which seemed a new avenue of income and their link-up with SAGA last year.The latter seemed a major step forward for them. SAGA is a powerful and trusted brand and Medsea Estates work with Saga's Overseas Home Service( see Saga'a website) in the Costa Blanca area with 5 developments.The range of benefits of the SAGA scheme is extensive and I would feel more confident buying a property in Spain through SAGA rather than a Spanish developer!!

I am not sure what is a reasonable target price--eps of 3p (minimum) in 2007 and a P/E of only 10 means a share price of 30p.This must be very conservative and remember the original float price.

Drain

[redm1re] 17/4/2007 19:53

A year or two will do me fine.

Patience is required with the small caps because as you rightly point out the lack of news causes the price to drift.

I am happy holding til next results, given we are all fairly confident about the prospects here. All this of course provided the trading updates are encouraging

Might even pick up a few more on the dips, provided the spread isn't quite so punishing as it was last time I tried for a few