Mccarthy & Stone Share Discussion Threads

[speedsgh] 02/6/2017 09:50

McCarthy & Stone can’t match rivals’ yield -

Numis has initiated coverage of retirement house builder McCarthy & Stone (MCS) with a ‘hold’ rating, arguing its lower yield versus mainstream builders means the shares offer less upside.

‘McCarthy & Stone is the only way to play the long-term shift in demographic trends to an ageing population in the housebuilding sector,’ said Chris Millington.

‘However, the group is focused on the trade-down buyer, it is not a beneficiary of the Help to Buy scheme and is more exposed to the vagaries of the second-hand market,’ he added.

He flagged that the group expected to launch twice as many sites in 2018 as in 2017, supporting higher volumes, prices and margins.

‘However, given the lower dividend yield and the fact that return on equity is somewhat constrained by a lower asset turn, we forecast the shares have slightly less upside than the average house builder.’

Millington placed a 197p target price on the shares, which were trading 0.2% higher at 185.4p at the time of writing.

[chickenrun1] 28/5/2017 08:56

I am really surprised MCS has performed so poorly finkle. I have been a long term holder based on the ageing population being a big positive catalyst for them and perhaps it will be but the share price isn't reflecting it at the moment.

[finkie] 28/5/2017 08:44

What's the gut feeling on mcs here? Seems like Goldman are reducing stock anyone an idea on their overall view have they sold down from circa 6% to below 3%?

I sold at 190 but since then they've been within a 180/190 band it seems, I like the stock and aging active increasing population will help their business long term but they probably need a re think on the style of developments offered and look to the states for the upscale complexes developed there perhaps.....

[aiuk] 05/5/2017 20:33

Check this out:

[spoole5] 28/4/2017 22:29

All housebuilders down today.

[aim11] 28/4/2017 16:38

stock went ex div 1.8p but that was yesterday, payable on 9 June.

[aim11] 28/4/2017 15:40

Trading like it's about to profit warn.

[its the oxman] 28/4/2017 15:38

What's happened to our nice gradual rise?

[aim11] 19/4/2017 15:35

the performance of this stock vs other uk homebuilders and recently vs other uk focused names even rubbish like debenhams and dunelm is quite frankly appalling.

[mfhmfh] 19/4/2017 15:06

inching up slowly. moving in the right direction at least.

[mfhmfh] 13/4/2017 10:10

nice, gradual rise continues.

more 'holdings in company' rns statements today.

[aim11] 12/4/2017 12:14

anchorage capital just gone to 18%

[aim11] 07/4/2017 09:17

agreed with that, much higher growth coming through in higher margin, higher ASP sites, with a strong balance sheet...incrementally things should look a lot better over the next few quarters

[mfhmfh] 06/4/2017 11:29

future looks bright. rated as a buy in IC article from yesterday.

[pillion] 05/4/2017 10:30

............. our strategic growth plan will see us almost double our build starts this year and our sales releases next year.............

Not holding but looks good
imho

[aim11] 05/4/2017 09:29

sounded like a solid conference call, incentives back to -5% in H2 and -6% average for FY17, so the same as last 3 years. Big increase in volumes for FY18, and on target for 3000 by FY19 with a slight skew towards FY19 vs FY18 trajectory but not much according to CEO.

[crystball] 05/4/2017 08:04

Thanks for pointing that out.

[speedsgh] 05/4/2017 07:37

"In line with the Group's progressive dividend policy, the Group is announcing an interim dividend of 1.8p per share (2016: 1.0p per share - pro-rated for period since listing), to be paid on 9 June 2017 to shareholders on the register at close of business on 28 April 2017."

Interim div H1 2016 - 1.0p*
Interim div H1 2016 - 1.8p

* Pro-rated from the IPO in November 2015 to February 2016. Had we applied our policy of paying a 1/3 first half and 2/3 second half dividend in the prior year, H1 FY16 dividend would have been 1.75p per share

So increase in interim dividend in real terms is 2.9%.

[crystball] 05/4/2017 07:34

I can't see much wrong with these results and look forward to the significantly increased dividend. The outlook, as long as there isn't a house price crash is good.

[spoole5] 05/4/2017 07:16

The usual pattern on results and trading updates is a fall first thing then later recovery. Let's see.

[aim11] 05/4/2017 07:14

seems like there is something very negative that i'm missing here at least.

[aim11] 05/4/2017 06:39

yes i think ultimately the key thing for this stock is can the growth re-accelerate to previous rates and so they hit the 3000 target. The doubling of sales releases in FY18 vs. FY17 and the current large increase in build activity to deliver this suggests it can.

[wan] 05/4/2017 06:32

Results as expected, but the outlook suggests strong growth will be delivered going forwards, with the progressive dividend also implying management confidence.

The section on the White Paper also suggests a tailwind, in addition to the demographic/supply and demand backdrop, may emerge soon.

[aim11] 05/4/2017 06:14

In addition to our focus on FY17, we continue to make strong progress to build our workflow for FY18 and FY19 delivery. Build activity has now started on 44 new sites as at 31 March 2017 (2016: 34), and a further 16 new site starts are expected by the end of Q3 FY17 (FY16: 9). These site starts will drive the increase to over 80 sales releases in FY18, almost double the expected level of sales releases in FY17. With all detailed planning consents in place to deliver targeted sales in FY18 and sufficient land under control to deliver targeted sales in FY19, the Group remains confident of delivering its strategic growth objective of building and selling more than 3,000 units per annum

[7kiwi] 04/4/2017 17:35

MCS is nowhere near as bad as Audley in terms of exit fees.

It did start its own estate agency to sell 'used' properties to help support new pricing. But that closed a couple of years ago. This might return as an issue in the future.

The only slightly 'iffy' item is the index linked ground rent which MCS securitises and sells as reversionary leasehold interests.