Mavinwood Share Discussion Threads

[chrishauser] 22/3/2010 08:46

Morning all....
NOt alot going on this morning yet.....
Can anyone buy or sell online currently as I can't.....

[comedy] 21/3/2010 11:07

cheers humbugg getting back to the day to day but with a more relaxed attitude.

humbugg i'm quite happy to wait it out...at the end of the day to turn the business around takes time...so have to be happy that they took "paper" at 0.75p..at the end of the day he wants to get a decent return. The share price will climb as the weeks proceed as there isnt much stock available at this share price Those who were more risk averse but patient will take a position now as they have an upside of 50%???. The mm's can mess about as much as they want but t20 from friday and those who bought will have to get their stock. I now belive we will steadily rise to the placing price over coming month. It's not a trading stock as the mm's are keeping a large spread so until they want trading and reduce spread i think we will slowly rise as those who buy and are patient till the april meeting will get a nice return. Obviously those who are looking mid term and if they can start turning the business around then expect a good return. I do agree old shareholders from prevoius heights may not be happy but this is their opportunity to average down and bring their average buy price down...saw it in mta/mxp/rxp/ast/amer and numerous others last year where those who averaged down came out with a massive upside.

also shows they waited until cazenove trashed the price to then get a bargain even after giving us a 50% uplift on the share price from which placing price determined...bearing in mind we were 1.5p range before cazenove started selling so effectively he managed to get another approx 30% of the company at a bargain...another indicator that cazenove are out.

good luck all

[humbugg] 21/3/2010 09:27

fo77y,
post 1727 spot on.

comedy,
hope all is well with you?
this D/E swap is fairly positive in so far as its a show of confidence. they couldnt really do anything else. as for a placing?? they'd have never gotten it away at over 0.30p (extra dilution), so this seems like the only route with which to take. the business needs to improve quickly imho, not that im likely to be around when if it does.

[hulk2004] 19/3/2010 15:35

Advfn is not a correct factual record of buys/sells,its software guesses what are buys/sells per the quoted bid/offer but we all know that you can trade between the spread,I think the correct figure is 50/50 for buys/sells, if you think I am wrong please correct.

[gdasinv2] 19/3/2010 15:29

so why so many sell? Can any 1 explain pls

[hako02] 19/3/2010 12:27

Induana

That is how i see it too,they were holding 57 percent prior today and as from april they will almost own whole company.why they should sell their shares as you said dilluition only happens when they decided to sell their shares,and it is very unlikely will happen,
I can see this towards to agm rising to .75p levels then it depends how the company is trading afterwards.
There is mixed reaction to the rns but i can see this very good in terms of share holders in the short and medium term.

Gl

[chrishauser] 19/3/2010 12:01

I cant buy or sell online at the mo...
Is this just me?

[induna123] 19/3/2010 11:47

There won't be any dilution unless Geraldton sell. They will effectively hold 86% of the company at 0.75p. The market cap will increase when the new shares are issued but Mavinwood will have wiped out £8m worth of debt.

[safman] 19/3/2010 10:23

Well, one thing for sure, is that anything Ashcroft is involved in, people tend to take notice... extremely shrewd businessman...

The question is how to extract value, he owns too many shares, hence the statement "looking for other investors"..

If business prospects can be improved with the addition of other investors by either selling off some of his stock or placing with others, then he may be able to extract value from the placement.. or with the addition of other businesses..

Theoretical, but just a few possibilities.. i may well be way off the mark..

best of luck chaps..

saffy..

[tivoliworldgaming] 19/3/2010 10:18

Placing at 0.75p so anything under 0.5p will be met with very strong buying pressure.

[watchout2] 19/3/2010 10:17

Comedy.

I'm wondering at what point in the day will the penny finally drop for you :-))

[comedy] 19/3/2010 10:14

The placing has
been underwritten by Geraldton Services Inc ("Geraldton"). It is expected that
Geraldton will subscribe for the entire Placing. The proceeds of the Placing
will be used to pay down debt due to Geraldton.

[tivoliworldgaming] 19/3/2010 10:12

Looks like 0.51p is the best price to of bought in for.

[watchout2] 19/3/2010 10:09

Saffy.

I knew i would get sense from you.

What i dont understand is if they suddenly demanded their money why didnt
they issue a few billion shares at 0.3p and then sell them on, you know
what punters are like for cheap decimal stock after a placing, look at Abh,
they diluted a similar amount and the volumes went through the roof for a
week allowing the seller to get the placing stock out, who's going to pay
0.75p when as you say it values a struggling company at 10 mil ?

edit..well on your figures much more than 10 mil ?

[watchout2] 19/3/2010 10:01

Fozzy.

Most punters in decimal stocks expect to make their fortunes overnight, there will be 1.3 billion shares in issue so any 0.1p jump is an extra 1.3 mil to the
market cap which will already be very high, not exactly good value after that
trading update, if the price stays where it is that would be 6.5 mil, dont stand out as cheap and it would look even worse value at 0.75 or 10 mil market cap, i still dont understand why they have done this, maybe they dont intend
to sell and it's a vote of confidence but if they have diluted current shareholders big style when if they had the companies interests at heart they should have met half way and kept dilution down somewhat and given the company time to pay down the debt.

[riggerbeautz] 19/3/2010 09:54

Fo77y i'm with your post negatives and positives alike with the update, but at this price i'm happy to be in for the longer term.

[fo77y] 19/3/2010 09:53

Watchout, you are corerct in stating that Geraldton are the underwriters of the issue, but you fail to see that they are expected to subscribe for the entire placing, so therefore there in no requirement to find other 'takers'. I agree that it does dilute, but every placing does. I don't understand what point you making about the mkt cap increasing when the share price increases....that's what happens to every company on the stock exchange.

I thank you for your comments, it's always good to make a case for both sides of the story it helps us all stay within reason, and helps potential investors make a valid judgement.

[hulk2004] 19/3/2010 09:46

The shares will not be offered to anyone, its a placing in name only,its priced at 0.0075 so nobody would take it only Geraldton, its so obvious.

[watchout2] 19/3/2010 09:40

Fo77y.

What part am i not understanding, i'm all for apologising if i've got it wrong.

Geraldton are owed the money via the MVW debt.

Geraldton are underwriting the placing, so if the placing gets a poor response
which is highly possible considering the market price is way below the placing
price then nothing will change except the valuation of the company jumps and
of course so does the number of shares.

I cannot see how people can see this as positive, if somebody else was underwriting it all then it would be better but all you are doing is diluting
the stock by a huge amount, any jump in the shareprice will be a jump in the
market cap.

[beginner3] 19/3/2010 09:39

Fo77y - Thank you

[chrishauser] 19/3/2010 09:33

good morning all, this is effectly ashcroft taking caz's stock isnt which is more or less what we have been talking about since the new adviosors came on board. good news me finks
well done to everyone we kept their nerve!!

[fo77y] 19/3/2010 09:33

Watchout, i don't think you have read the rns properly or you misunderstand it. You keep asking who is going to take up the issue at the premium price stated.........Geraldton are taking up the entire issue there is no requirement to find more takers!

Beginner, the reason Geraldotn are paying a 58% premium to yesterday's close is that it simply demonstrates their backing of the company and their confidence in the company's future, it also proves they are there for the long term.

For me, today's RNS has a mixed reaction, i have mentioned in previous posts that an issue may be on the cards, yet i was worried at what price it would be at (assumed it would be at a discount like most are), however that fear has be allayed and i am pleased that it has been done at such a high premium, it really is the best way for Geraldton to publicly show how they are supporting the business. However, it is a large issue and therefore dilutes the entire capital somewhat.

The trading statement is slightly poorer than i would have hoped, i wasn't expecting a dramatic increase in performance, but at the same time thought it may have improved slightly in 2009 compared to 2008. I think the share price will gradually climb, certainly to the 0.75p between now and april 13th, and it doesn't take a great deal of buying to raise it.

I feel mavinwood has a long term future, with a strong backer, and given improvements in trading we will see the share price reflect this (long term).

[comedy] 19/3/2010 09:09

well done watchout2...touche just revealed your true nature. dont reply back as wont waste another post to you....shame you dont have the decency to explain the rns or WHY YOU CHANGE YOUR HANDLE????