Matrix European Real Estate Share Discussion Threads

[geng] 13/8/2010 10:52

good one Karl - that dropped the price nicely!

Think I'm going to have a few more

[karldinnel] 13/8/2010 09:02

Positive news coming out of Europe, this morning. German economy has shown a very strong quarter while analysts also say France is doing better.

Could be a good sign for commercial property.

We're already trading at a huge discount to NAV and have reinstated dividend payments, so I expect any improvement in NAV will see share price start to close the gap...

[tim00] 01/8/2010 13:13

I started to invest in GKP at 8am of the day of the initial discovery a year ago. At one point I held 200k shares, but sold them down to zero with the falling share price In retrospect of course we should have sold at 130p and then got back in. My trading is poor but I hope I've learnt something from that episode: take profits on shares that will fluctuate over a period of years. Takeout values for GKP are too optimistic. Go to any thread of an oiler that's been taken out (EEN springs to mind, there are several others) and the posters will claim they were robbed. £5 would be the very top end of my expectation, and I don't see it happening for at least another 12-18 months. Drilling is incredibly difficult there and each takes over 6 months, as you know. Consequently proving up resources is incredibly expensive, resulting in continual dilution. I do wonder about a possible merger with HOIL once Uganda is sorted, since HOIL has the money and GKP the oil. Would suit both companies.

[karldinnel] 01/8/2010 13:01

The reason why my holding in GKP is about 17% of my total portfolio is because I got in during August last year.

I was actually looking at the Sterling Energy thread on ADVFN, considering whether to buy in because I wanted exposure to Kurdish oil ("My taxes helped pay for the illegal war so why shouldn't I profit too?" was my pragmatic reasoning). But people on the SEY thread suddenly started going on about GKP's discovery of 500 million barrels.

I quickly did some sums involving GKP's market cap at the time (which was undervalued even based on half a billion barrels), and thought "Well, if they've discovered 500 million in the shallow area of their drill, how much could be further down?"

One of the best investment decisions I've made. Got in below 30p, took some profit in the 90s and then over a pound. However, I topped up again when the shares fell back below a pound and have been holding ever since.

I expect that GKP will multibag from here. But I don't want to get caught in the same trap I did with Firestone Diamonds, when I held from 43p to 210p and didn't take profit (I met a bunch of fellow investors who were talking about 10 quid and got suckered! Doh!)

So, what do you think is a sensible takover price for GKP? Some real bluesky figures have come about suggesting 20-30 quid, but I can't see that myself. That would make the share a 500-bagger for holders who were lucky enough to get in at 6p last year. Last time I heard of a share like that was Pollypeck and we all know what happened to that...

I can certainly see a fiver though, but suspect that someone might step in and offer three quid in the meantime...

[tim00] 01/8/2010 12:48

Karl, I went back into GKP on the day it started to rise strongly. I have fewer shares than I would like, so I hope (and expect) that the share price will flatline for a while until more funds become available. Personally I think GKP is a pretty safe bet given the size of its discoveries, and it will multibag in time, obviously starting once the politics are resolved. I have about 10% of my portfolio in GKP, but nearly 50% in WCC!

[karldinnel] 01/8/2010 12:41

So Tim00, are you in GKP too?

I don't like to put all my eggs in one basket. For example, I have for a very, very long time been keen on FDI but the management keep moving the goal posts so it is a good job I run a reasonably-diversified portfolio because I could have put all my dosh into that one a while back.

Happy to hold around one-sixth of my portfolio here, though (a similar proportion to my GKP holding).

While everyone is fretting about the future of the euro and eurozone economies I think that collectively they are big and ugly enough to survive and thrive. My problem is with the UK.

It has only just started to emerge, since the coalition government was formed, exactly how much debt we are all collectively exposed to as a nation. Fred Bloggs doesn't get it yet because from his point of view we are still a "great nation" that has a big say in what goes on in the world. Unfortunately, history is littered with mid-sized economies that either decline in a slow way or simply collapse overnight.

That's why oceans of oil in Kurdistan (GKP), oil and gas in Poland and elsewhere in eastern Europe (AUL), diamonds in Southern Africa (FDI), nickel in Turkey and south-east Asia (ENK) and, yes, commercial property in mainland Europe (IERE and MERE) appeal to me...

Also, I have no problem holding gold too despite people saying that it is near all-time highs. When adjusted for inflation, gold is actually still at around a 60% discount to its early 80s high in real terms...

[tim00] 01/8/2010 11:07

Thank you Karl. I will continue to look in and post something if I have something to say. I still have my old spreadsheets for the company. Of course predicting short term share price movements is very difficult, but MERE has flatlined for a while now and while it's pretty safe and yields a good dividend, I just don't think property is fashionable at the moment. Until European property prices start to rise strongly again, and MERE manages to improve occupancy at its problem site in Germany, MERE unfortunately just looks a little dull. GKP far more exciting, as you know Karl. Fwiw, I also like WCC and AYM at the moment. HAWK will also prove exciting one way or another in coming months, as will RKH (which I don't hold).

[karldinnel] 01/8/2010 10:51

It's a shame Tim00 sold out. He used to post some good, well-informed analysis here.

As far as I can tell, MERE is still deeply discounted compared to its NAV and the divi just means that I get a reasonable income from holding the share until it is rerated...

[nlckdave] 28/7/2010 08:06

ex d today, price will fall back 4%

[geng] 23/7/2010 11:51

Why sell now - there is a divi in a weeks time?

[karldinnel] 13/7/2010 16:21

Yes, people are pricing in a double dip of monumental proportions.

A lot of my shares are not doing well despite releasing good news. FDI has just started diamond production, for instance, but its price has barely moved...

[johnv] 13/7/2010 15:28

still scratching my head wondering why no movement. When you compare to mnr which paids no divi and is trading on a slight premium to its nav. I can only believe its down to euro problems and everyone believes in a collapse in the nav and that the Uk property is safer bet.

[geng] 13/7/2010 09:48

Strange - there isn't more volume today. This has to be one of the best bargains on the market.

[karldinnel] 13/7/2010 08:33

Tim00. I am in a lot a shares where the management say one thing and then do another, but I've learned over the years to ignore the management and just focus on the fundamentals.

The only thing I care about in terms of management is that they are competent, and not whether they have the best interests of PIs at heart (I always expect institutions and shareholders close to the board to get a better deal than me, but as long as I can pick up a few crumbs I am happy)

Having said that, in the case of MERE, the share price only shot up after the divi news the other day, not ahead of it. So, that suggests this lot play with a straight bat.

Good luck with PMSL...

[tim00] 12/7/2010 23:27

Karl, they say one thing and then do another! Difficult for an investor to plan rationally on that basis! I'm pleased for holders such as yourself, I'm equally happy though with PMHL where my money went.

[karldinnel] 12/7/2010 22:46

It is certainly ISAble, as are other property trusts like IERE

[sammu] 12/7/2010 22:20

I didn't think this was ISAable for some reason.

They are implying another 4p as the final dividend, so imo it might be 6p at a push.

[karldinnel] 12/7/2010 19:34

Bet Tim00 wishes he didn't sell out the other day at 110p or whatever it was...

That's the risk with these sorts of shares. You get out of them and then suddenly it ends up costing you a lot more to buy back in...


Anyway, love the divi news. Means that my ISA is going to be producing some decent income finally...

[nlckdave] 12/7/2010 18:26

EXCELLENT NEWS.

[geng] 12/7/2010 15:54

Kimboy2 - The second half divi may be even higher than that!

They are not comitting to, but underwriting another 4p. The way they work I would expect a minnimum of 8p next divi.

[kimboy2] 12/7/2010 15:43

ISTR that they were suggesting it was the year end before they would consider dividends so that is good news.

A somewhat odd time to announce a dividend. Why not announce it with the the half year results.

FWIW I am expecting a full year dividend of 8p for a 12p annual.

[johnv] 12/7/2010 15:41

we always seem to have a slum midday before recovering in the pm.

[phil1969] 12/7/2010 15:40

Divi reinstated :-)

8p p.a. (4p payable 6 months to June 30th) record date July 30th

7.1% yield on todays opening price


Nice yield and de-risked.

This should move quickly back over £1.60 giving a 5% yield

[zangdook] 12/7/2010 15:26

dividends resumed

[johnv] 08/7/2010 17:29

Sleepy,
you should have a look at QED, bounced off the low at 40p 3 times so far. NAV approx 120p