Marks And Spencer Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 16:16

kwasi kwarteng
KK

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 16:14

EI. Rogue said on Friday evening that S&P500 ended just below 200ma. I have looked at that chart and the 200ma does not show much support throughout history.
The 2022 chart looks so similar to 1973 which is very scary. The shape and where the MDAs cross

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 15:59

EI

"Darrin those numbers mentioned are pretax and pre exceptional."

Yes they were and the bottom line profits will be much less and wrose still taking account of any exceptional costs. In fact its rare in the present economic climate not to have exceptional cost.

Marks could go either way if the figures are better the current share price may be undervalued but if the figurws fall and the outlook poor well you will see more downside.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 15:55

darrin who is KK?

"Interesting, "institutions selling stocks" is an area above your pay grade but you are convinced you know better than KK on how to run an economy. I wonder if KK knows why institutions are selling stocks?"

I didn't mean that I understand why they were selling stocks to raise cash after finding themselves in trouble over pension schemes were on the brink of going bust but I don't understand the intrincities of the derivatives do you?

If so perhaps you can explain it.

As to pay I have said I agree people need to be paid a decent wage but that is really not what the GOV want.

In actual fact it isn't what any economy wants this is not how the people at the top earn money this is world over cheap labour or put it more simply slave labour!

Now dont tell me the BOE and GOV don't want people on higher pay they don't they have warned high rates of pay will cause more inflation.

Don;t blame me for all this Darrin it is the governments fault.

As for houses accroding to the people in that arena we need at least a million new houses and that ins't to house refugees if they were not in the equation we would still need 1 million houses.

May be I am older than you but after the war this country went on a massive house building boom and it improved the economy in the swinging 60s and 70s so the GOV can do things when there is a need for them and there is a need for them now.

[essentialinvestor] 01/10/2022 15:45

Darrin those numbers mentioned are pretax and pre exceptional.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 15:42

EEI,

We will have to wait a while before we have the numbers. One consolation is if the company was to miss forecasts by 10% I think they have a duty to inform the market. The main concern however is what further guidance will look like the market looks forward and not backword and if things are deteriorating that will hit market confidence.

The way the share price is falling suggests investors aren't convinced things will get better and exiting the company but there could be forced selling pressure through pension funds trying to raise money.

I think it is too early in the cycle for things to pick up we are virtually in a recession despite the recent figures suggesting the opposite, but in any event most analysts expect the UK economy to perform poorer than most of the other developed economies.

The US markets had another bad day yesterday it does look like we are in bear territory.

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 15:40

EI, without going back and checking, MKS were predicting profits from Ocado retail would fall into a loss as new warehouses came online and subsequently they would not be working at full efficiency.

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 15:36

Interesting, "institutions selling stocks" is an area above your pay grade but you are convinced you know better than KK on how to run an economy. I wonder if KK knows why institutions are selling stocks?

Higher wages in 2023 could be offset by falling commodity prices and a falling dollar

How else do you get higher wages unless you pay more?

By not importing cheep labour which encourages productivity improvements.

Do we need more houses? To house cheep imported labour? Maybe for all the extra children we are having? The aging population?
Maybe we have enough housing but private landlords have pushed up demand, prices and rent through an advantageous tax regime. Many renters would be happy if they were able to buy the house they were renting.

[essentialinvestor] 01/10/2022 15:17

FY consensus is now well under £400 on pre tax, estimates have been
scaled back by approx 15% plus since last May. Risks still look to
the downside on those numbers, we find out more on that shortly.

In terms of the SP, perhaps a case of whether potential further disappointment
on trading is already factored in. That may depend on how hideous the
FY outlook guidance is - a possibility amid all the gloom
MKS slightly surprise on the upside, possibility underlined!.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 13:34

One of the most serious problems at the moment is the rise in interest rates and although 70% are on fixed rates some will have to be redeemed in the next 12 months and more so the year after.

However those that aren't will have such a rise they won't be able to remortgage and or not afford their mortgages particularly if the BOE rate goes above 4% even at the current bank rates many lenders want at least double that at the moment the margin is to make up for the banks profits and some people going under.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 13:10

Essentail, yes "making work pay" has been said for decades but it's all waffle the same old all the time.

According to GOV figures there are more people getting in work but still 1.49 million out of work and maybe some other which they call "economicaly inactive".

darrin the GOV and we want people on higher pay but if all base workers were given a 15.4% pay rise the GOV would freak out as it would continue to push up inflation then you get an inflation spiral a bit like the snowball effect where it gains speed as it gets bigger going down the slope.

All the comments by the GOV waffle to make the public think they have a handle on things and they haven't really.

The problem with this conservative government is they arent focused on improving growth for infrastructure they are leaving it up to private individuals who cannot take on major projects without GOV help.

We need more houses for a start and you cannot leave that to housebuilders they are only interested in their own profit margins building more expensive houses than affordable ones.

We are in a crisis at the moment and lets face it things are difficult around the world so if there is high inflation abroad which there is like Europe at the moment and we rely on about 45% of our food imports it will just add to spiraling inflation. That in turn will add to higher interest rates which will then suck out more money in the economy.

In the meantime the institutions selling stocks to raise cash because they have been caught out on derivatives which is getting into an area above my pay grade.

It could be getting a good time to buy some retail stocks but I think some will go lower yet and some will hit the wall. It's a high risk strategy.

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 12:23

EI. I have also mentioned on the SHA board that any 3 year visas for any migrants should come with a 30% training tariff on the employer. The tariff going to train UK workers in higher paid work.

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 12:19

EI. lets see what the KK policy is. We know he can hint at a policy then come up with a lot more.

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 12:17

"Making work pay." is a slogan I have heard from the KK camp.

I hope he is able to pull it off without the policy being twisted by political opponents and the media.

A carrot and stick policy will be twisted into a big stick to beat up the poor policy

A carrot only policy is maybe what is needed now.

[essentialinvestor] 01/10/2022 12:13

We have heard this for 30 years ..make work pay, but yet little changes.

The Chancellor was referring to sub 15 hrs, so a requirement to work that minimum
number of hrs (where possible) - not 15 hrs plus.

[essentialinvestor] 01/10/2022 12:10

Darrin, as mentioned on the SHA board, in the health and social care sector HMG
are now issuing 3 year visas for non EU migrants.

We will gradually replace EU migrants with non EU migration.

This is the first sector those new rules apply to, others will follow.

The minimum earnings requirement has also been ditched.

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 12:10

Reminder. Universal credit taper relief is 55%

Any pay rise or extra hours you do over 16 hours at minimum wage and you loose 55%.

Minimum wage £9.50
Each additional hour over 16 hours a week and you are paid £4.27

It has been suggested this will be cut to 50%. I would suggest that in light of the 45% tax rate cut that Universal credit taper relief is cut to 40%.

This is not without consequences. Working people not receiving benefits may see those working less hours on benefits receiving more in total pay and benefits.

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 12:00

I don't know what the government are going to do about immigration. I will make my judgement when we hear the proposals.

Any government would want higher wages as long as it did not lead to higher unemployment and inflation. What you don't want are those higher wages being eaten up by inflation, especially in housing.

UK inflation in the first instance was being imported via higher commodity prices, lockdowns and broken supply chains and this was exacerbated by the dollars strength. These imported costs are leading to domestic inflation. This is happening across the world and is not UK specific.
Yes the pound is more exposed than the euro but this may have also been the case if we were still in the EU.
High US interest rates will dampen US demand.
US inflation will fall significantly over the next 12 months and US interest rates will peak. Commodity prices are already falling in anticipation of a slowdown. The dollar will weaken in anticipation of US interest rate cuts.
UK imported inflation due to a lower dollar and commodities will turn negative. We will then be left with domestic inflation offset by imported deflation.

Decisions will then need to be made depending upon the UK's circumstances.
One option. Keep interest rates above competitors, pushing the pound higher. More imported deflation balancing higher domestic wage inflation. Higher interest rates will squeeze more homeowners as more need to take out new fixed mortgages. Introduce fixed tenancies for renters and make buy to let less attractive. So higher wages but stable (or falling) house prices and rent. More money in the pocket of the poor and less benefits paid to working people.

There are so many possibilities

[essentialinvestor] 01/10/2022 11:59

careful, you might want to look at the current benefit rules before commenting -
in many cases you can only work up to 15 hrs before benefits are cut.

I've seen this in the UK care sector which employs many people on a "part time" basis,
some of whom would like to work more hrs, but are unable to do so as their benefits will be cut.

The focus should be on making work pay.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 11:33

A number of high earners who have enough money to live on say how they feel about the tax cuts.



One guy doesn't know what to do with the money and example give it away to charity and that won't help boost the economy and if he books a holiday to Dubia they will benefit from the tax cuts.

Liz Truss tax cuts haven't been thought through she has given no examples as to how the tax cuts have boosted the economy had she done so it may have made a difference.

But she knows the GOV borrowing at sky high at the moment and she will now have to look for savings in other areas like civil servants, so they will have to look for work elsewhere.

So a civil servant loses their job and they don't contribute to spending on the High Street.

As someone in the media said last night if the GOV announced a new motorway or a massive building boom it woould be a different matter but she hasn't.

To think cutting tax will boost the economy when borrowing is too high is a very high risk strategy.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 09:28

darrin, I hear what you say on cheap labour but no GOV really wants to move from that, as an example of that is Liz Truss wants to ease regulation so we can bring in more cheap labour to go on ouf fields in the agricultural industry.

They waffle about highly paid jobs but that is only for some industries .

Even in nursing trusts basic pay for assistants is only £9.50 an hour which is peanuts for looking after mental health patients as we saw on Panorama.

Careful the GOV was already getting people into the workplace before the PM becamee the leader lets hope it gets more people workimg but I suspect only a small percentage of the 1.49 million.

If it woas going to work we will know by Christmas but that is still a lot of people claimimg benefits.

There is another problem with some of the unemployed they can only work in certain industries because of their attitude. Like picking fruit which they don't like to do and avoid beecause they say they have a bad back.

[debsdowner] 30/9/2022 21:13

Dow down 1.7%

[careful] 30/9/2022 17:37

Getting people off of their backside, off benefits and back to work is what recent Central Bank moves are about. Inflation and cheap money cause problems.

[darrin1471] 30/9/2022 17:32

Advertise a low skilled job at minimum wage and you used to get a steady supply of applicants. You need to add another £1.50 now to get the same level of applications.
I suspect that the lack of cheap labour from the EU is the main reason.
Probably mentioned this before.
Local warehouse invested £100k in electric pump trucks to replace the manual pump trucks. They needed to increase productivity while paying higher wages as there were no new minimum wage staff coming from the EU.
Accrol (ACRL)make paper products, loo rolls etc. 1/3 imported before Brexit from EU. They increased mechanisation. Without checking back on the exact numbers; Capacity up 50%, staff numbers down 30%, remaining staff paid more as remaining jobs are more technical. Increased wages, higher productivity. One of the few stocks I have bought recently.

[shoesize19] 30/9/2022 17:07

And debsdowner a spiral down on the stock market as we can see is happening .