Marks And Spencer Share Discussion Threads

[debsdowner] 02/10/2022 17:50

Pension funds been selling bonds and also equities due to pension funds sell off last Friday




"Ross Mitchinson, co-chief executive of UK broker Numis, said: “There has been the forced selling of everything — equities as well as bonds.” The UK’s domestically focused FTSE 250 has fallen more than 5 per cent this week."

[debsdowner] 02/10/2022 17:35

Depite Truss saying she is not modelling herself on Thatcher who was known as the "iron Lady" Truss says she will do things with an "iron fist" LOL the simularities or should I say Truss trying to model herself on Thatcher are blatant.

Truss admitting already she has made mistakes one of which is not explaining things properly and she says she will learn lessons from that not a good start to her role as PM.

She will be lucky if she lasts while Christmas she just hasn't got it in her she is not the sharpest knife in the drawer and plastic one at that.

[debsdowner] 02/10/2022 13:09

Naddine Dorries accuses Liz Truss of "throwing Kwarteng under a bus as the decission to slash top rate of tax was his alone and it seems cabinet not discussed this but she says she supported it. What a strange thing to do a Chancellor not seeking support from cabinet before you issue a budget !

[debsdowner] 02/10/2022 12:59

darrin,

British steel need GOV help otherise 4,000 jobs are at stake



So should Liz Truss GOV step in here or ignore the request and hope tax cuts will improve the economy ?

[debsdowner] 02/10/2022 10:00

SKY news new poll shows Labour 19 point lead. Sky news:

Truss and Tories' approval ratings take another hit in fresh poll
Liz Truss and the Tories' approval ratings have again plummeted in a fresh poll - as Labour jumped to a 19-point lead.

The Opinium poll showed 55% of voters disapprove of the new prime minister and just 18% approve, which is worse than Boris Johnson's final days in office.

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng is no more popular after the pair doubled down on economic policies announced last week, with 55% also disapproving of him and 27% approving.

Labour has seen yet another boost with the party setting a 19-point lead, according to the new Opinium poll.

The party now has 46% of the vote share, while the Conservatives have dropped to 27%.

Sky news analysis:

[debsdowner] 02/10/2022 09:52

Johnwose, I think this is right proper woman need protecting and it doeasn't help with MARKS not making it most clear that woman's changing rooms are for woman only.

I watched the BBC interview this morning with Lauara Kissenbrg and Liz Truss and don't think Liz Truss did well.

She said she was commited to reduction of top rate tax but refused to say their would be no benefit cuts.

She tried to avoid querstions on bond prices rising after her mini budger spooking the market and avoided as many issues as she could on mortgage rates rising.

The reason morgage rates are rising is bonds were seeing 4% rises in interest rates on GOV borrowimng and that was a direct consequence on the budget.

Michael Gove was quite scathing on the Trust interview and Sharron White boss of John Lewis said her members were having to pay higher mortgage costs which seem tombe a direct consequence of the budget.

Truss said interest rates were rising around the world which is correct the problem here is they may rise higher due to Liz Truss policies and budget.

I don't think we would have seen the turmoil in the market if Rishi Sunak had have been elected.

Kussenberg failed to mention the pension funds dumping shares which were a direct consequence of the sell off in the pensions bond market where pensions could have gone bust.

All in all I don't think the interview went that well Truss seemed to choke up a few times not liking the questions she didn't like the look of the chart showing bond yields shoot up on the budget announcement and haven't fallen much since and around the 4% mark which show the direction of morgage rates at the moment.

I suspect the press will now pull apart the interview and highlight the areas of concern.

Truss seems to think UK growth will impact the economy immediately and I think she is wide off the mark.

Even 1 pence off the basic rate of tax and the reversal of the Nat Insurance will be wiped out with inflation and also mortgage rates.

If people cannot afford to pay their mortgage it will be dissastrous for many home owners and they won't be spending on the High Street.

As for the top rate tax payers a lot of them will spend the savings on foreign holidays which won't do the economy in the UK any good.

Problem with Laura Kussenberg is she could have put some of those points to the PM but failed to do she allowed Liz Truss to keep going on about energy cost savings and diverting th questions.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 22:36

Andrew Neil article in the Mail asks whether the budget will do to her as it did to previous PM's like Black Wednesday



Andrew Neil outlines the foolish budget and the failure to understand the cheap money had ended and raising borrowings would cause shock waves in the markets which happened.

Howeveer Andrew Neil also outlines inflation and interest rates are now effecting the global economy and placing many countries at risk.

This is why stock markets are falling they are forecasting falling profits for lots of companies and there is a dash for cash money is safer in the bank where you may get a higher interest on your money.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 22:16

Liz Truss says the Nord Stream pipeline blast an act of sabotage !

Well we know that you idiot what the public want is less avoidance tactics of tax cuts for the rich.

I will be watching the BBC at 8.30 am with interest and see how she comes over.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 19:02

darrin

The independant

"“Nothing in last week’s mini-Budget indicates that our new leaders have the slightest grasp of our long-term structural problems or the solutions, beyond a half-digested, two-dimensional version of Thatcherism,” said Mr Oppenheim."

Ken Clark also scathing.

In another article by the I

"o, Kwasi Kwarteng was warned. I have it on the highest, unimpeachable authority that the chancellor was told ahead of his tax-cutting measures that the markets would react badly."

So they did and the fool carried on regardless.

Then they both went into hiding all over the weekend and the press embarrased them into returning.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 18:45

The Independant says Truss could be gone by Christmas.

If Liz Truss makes people worse off through cuts in benefits when she is cutting tax for the rich her policies could amount to political suicide.

I suspect many red wall seats are worried they are going to lose their seats because 18 months is all Truss has got to improve the economy and it isn't long enough in any event.



Truss lacks both Charisma and the acumen to run the country imo and it is a pitty Rishi Sunak didn't get the job, there wouldnt have been the volotility in the stock markets which has already cost billions of pounds in the stock market collapse alone.

There is only one reason people are selling retail stocks is they don't believe she can grow the economy and high interest rates will suck money away from retailers.

[essentialinvestor] 01/10/2022 18:45

rogue posts on the SHA board.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 18:35

darrin, too many people in poor rented accomodation we have seen that with various TV of late.

In fact I listened to a recent TV programme which states we were one of the most over populated countries now and more so than India which I found hard to believe.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 18:31

darrin who is Rogue ?

Now I understand KK

"Why would a government not want people to earn a decent wage?"

Think about this?

Which isn't talked about much but was under Thatcher and Blair because he wasn't a left Labour.

If you push wages up too far you become uncompetitive this is what killed the coal industy all the strikes pushed wages up and then they did away with the coal mines.

Now wea re importing our coal which is causing a lot of controversy and the same for our steel.

This is what killed our cottom mills and manufacturers who all went abroad to outsource and I do know what I am talking about because I saw this happening in the 70s and 80s and had a client who had to shut his factory down in Skemersdale.

Where the UK has gone wrong is not invested enough in machinery and even Mark Carney warned of up to 20 million job losses through robot technology but it hasn't materialised yet.

The fact of the matter is you have to try and find a balance you cannot allow wages to get out of comtrol otherwise you lose the business you are operating in and also add to inflation.

I don't want tgo brag about all this darrin but I have watched over the last 60 years or so and the uK is struggling with this at the moment.

Also they don't always want you to know their hidden agenda it doesn't look good about talking pay down for political reasons.

But if you ask me have I got confidence in the GOV to try and create growth no I haven't.

They are just leaving it to individuals at the moment, although they have mentioned a few projects like fracking nothing is comming about quickly enough.

When the US was having a deep recession they built the Hoover Dam it is a long time ago but these are the things you need to do to get things moving.

On productivity if you compare our productivity against the US or Europe we are far behind both countries well it isn't good enough.

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 16:28

Why would a government not want people to earn a decent wage?
Would they prefer to pay low wages and to top it up with benefits?
Happy public re-elect governments

Are there 1m people in the UK without a home. No, they are in rented homes currently paying what is in effect private taxation to a private landlord. 1m new homes infilling gardens and new developments on farmland.

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 16:16

kwasi kwarteng
KK

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 16:14

EI. Rogue said on Friday evening that S&P500 ended just below 200ma. I have looked at that chart and the 200ma does not show much support throughout history.
The 2022 chart looks so similar to 1973 which is very scary. The shape and where the MDAs cross

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 15:59

EI

"Darrin those numbers mentioned are pretax and pre exceptional."

Yes they were and the bottom line profits will be much less and wrose still taking account of any exceptional costs. In fact its rare in the present economic climate not to have exceptional cost.

Marks could go either way if the figures are better the current share price may be undervalued but if the figurws fall and the outlook poor well you will see more downside.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 15:55

darrin who is KK?

"Interesting, "institutions selling stocks" is an area above your pay grade but you are convinced you know better than KK on how to run an economy. I wonder if KK knows why institutions are selling stocks?"

I didn't mean that I understand why they were selling stocks to raise cash after finding themselves in trouble over pension schemes were on the brink of going bust but I don't understand the intrincities of the derivatives do you?

If so perhaps you can explain it.

As to pay I have said I agree people need to be paid a decent wage but that is really not what the GOV want.

In actual fact it isn't what any economy wants this is not how the people at the top earn money this is world over cheap labour or put it more simply slave labour!

Now dont tell me the BOE and GOV don't want people on higher pay they don't they have warned high rates of pay will cause more inflation.

Don;t blame me for all this Darrin it is the governments fault.

As for houses accroding to the people in that arena we need at least a million new houses and that ins't to house refugees if they were not in the equation we would still need 1 million houses.

May be I am older than you but after the war this country went on a massive house building boom and it improved the economy in the swinging 60s and 70s so the GOV can do things when there is a need for them and there is a need for them now.

[essentialinvestor] 01/10/2022 15:45

Darrin those numbers mentioned are pretax and pre exceptional.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 15:42

EEI,

We will have to wait a while before we have the numbers. One consolation is if the company was to miss forecasts by 10% I think they have a duty to inform the market. The main concern however is what further guidance will look like the market looks forward and not backword and if things are deteriorating that will hit market confidence.

The way the share price is falling suggests investors aren't convinced things will get better and exiting the company but there could be forced selling pressure through pension funds trying to raise money.

I think it is too early in the cycle for things to pick up we are virtually in a recession despite the recent figures suggesting the opposite, but in any event most analysts expect the UK economy to perform poorer than most of the other developed economies.

The US markets had another bad day yesterday it does look like we are in bear territory.

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 15:40

EI, without going back and checking, MKS were predicting profits from Ocado retail would fall into a loss as new warehouses came online and subsequently they would not be working at full efficiency.

[darrin1471] 01/10/2022 15:36

Interesting, "institutions selling stocks" is an area above your pay grade but you are convinced you know better than KK on how to run an economy. I wonder if KK knows why institutions are selling stocks?

Higher wages in 2023 could be offset by falling commodity prices and a falling dollar

How else do you get higher wages unless you pay more?

By not importing cheep labour which encourages productivity improvements.

Do we need more houses? To house cheep imported labour? Maybe for all the extra children we are having? The aging population?
Maybe we have enough housing but private landlords have pushed up demand, prices and rent through an advantageous tax regime. Many renters would be happy if they were able to buy the house they were renting.

[essentialinvestor] 01/10/2022 15:17

FY consensus is now well under £400 on pre tax, estimates have been
scaled back by approx 15% plus since last May. Risks still look to
the downside on those numbers, we find out more on that shortly.

In terms of the SP, perhaps a case of whether potential further disappointment
on trading is already factored in. That may depend on how hideous the
FY outlook guidance is - a possibility amid all the gloom
MKS slightly surprise on the upside, possibility underlined!.

[debsdowner] 01/10/2022 13:34

One of the most serious problems at the moment is the rise in interest rates and although 70% are on fixed rates some will have to be redeemed in the next 12 months and more so the year after.

However those that aren't will have such a rise they won't be able to remortgage and or not afford their mortgages particularly if the BOE rate goes above 4% even at the current bank rates many lenders want at least double that at the moment the margin is to make up for the banks profits and some people going under.