Mariana Share Discussion Threads

[pr0t0n] 02/8/2016 09:04

RE: TSX SHAREHOLDERS

It will take a bit of time to get a full picture (GP`s words)

[barrywhit] 02/8/2016 09:02

Do we take it that all RNS releases will now be at 2-30 to match TSX opening..

[barrywhit] 02/8/2016 08:59

Good to see Gold back over $1,350....

[gersemi] 01/8/2016 18:39

A great article detailing the scam of COMEX but more pertinent is the conclusion that gold will at some point explode. Fingers crossed we have our PEA and PFS in the bag before then

A Curious Pattern of Comex "Deliveries"



Monday, 1 August 2016

By Craig Hemke

Even though gold "deliveries" on the Comex are nothing but a charade and shuffle of paper warehouse receipts and warrants, the latest trend is a real eye-opener and appears to be a rather interesting datapoint of extreme demand for gold in all its forms.

First of all, some background so that we're all on the same page...

Through the year, the Comex trades futures contracts for every month on the calendar. However, not all months are treated equally. Six of the months are treated as "delivery months" and these are the contracts which carry the majority of the short-term trading interest and volume. These months are February, April, June, August, October and December, The other six months are considered "non-delivery" and are very rarely traded or utilized as physical settlement contracts. These months are January, March, May, July, September and November.

A quick look at the current "gold board" reveals that, with the Aug16 contract now in its "delivery" phase, the active front month has become the Dec16. See below:

And, as you can see on the next chart, fully 3/4 of the entire Comex gold open interest can now be found in this front month, Dec16 contract:

OK? So, when a front month comes "off the board" as the Aug16 did last Thursday, it moves into its "delivery phase". This is when the entire charade and fraud of "Comex delivery" kicks in, usually characterized by a simple shuffling of paper warehouse receipts back and forth between the various Banks which operate the vaults. We've written about this on countless occasions over the past six years so we're not going to cover all of this again. Suffice it to say that there is very little, actual metal that is ever physically delivered on Comex. The entire process is simply in place to create the illusion of physical delivery in order to give The Bullion Bank Paper Derivative Pricing Scheme some element of legitimacy. That said, what is currently happening on Comex is a shocking trend that requires your attention and consideration.

Let's start by considering how a typical year of Comex deliveries has historically played out. Below is a chart of the delivery totals by month for Comex gold in 2015. Note that the blue bubbles draw attention to "delivery months" beginning with the Dec14 and the red bubbles denote the totals of the non-delivery months.

Do you see how this works? For all of 2015, the six delivery months produced a total gold delivery of 15,070 Comex gold contracts or, on average, about 2,500 per delivery month. Each contract represents 100 ounces of "gold" so the Comex can be said to have "delivered" 1,507,000 ounces of gold in these six months or a paltry 47 metric tonnes. For all of 2015, the six non-delivery months produced a total gold delivery of 1,148 contracts or about 200 per non-delivery month. This comes out to just 114,800 ounces of gold or almost 4 metric tonnes.

Adding this all together...For all of 2015, the Comex "delivered" 16,218 contracts of gold. This was 1,621,800 troy ounces of "gold" or about 51 metric tonnes.

(I don't know. Maybe I should stop here for a moment and let you consider whether, in the grand scheme of things, 51 metric tonnes is really much gold at all. The world produces about 3,000 metric tonnes per year so Comex "delivers" about 1.5% of total mine supply. And yet Comex/Globex electronic derivative trading is allowed to produce the price at which physical transactions take place around the globe. Neat trick, huh?)

Anyway, not to get sidetracked. Let's get back to the alleged Comex "deliveries" and have a look at the startling trend that we mentioned earlier...

Below is a chart of the total Comex gold deliveries thus far in 2016. Note that, as the year began, the amount of "gold" being shuffled around each month is not that dissimilar to 2015 or, frankly, any other year in the past. The non-delivery month of January kicked off the year with just 172 deliveries. Delivery February followed with 2,569. This was more than Feb15 but, all things considered, nothing significant or noteworthy. Non-delivery March saw just 743 and Delivery April had 3,984.

And now here's where things get funky...

Non-delivery May15: 26 Non-delivery May16: 2,215

Delivery Jun15: 2,959 Delivery Jun16: 15,785

Non-delivery Jul15: 728 Non-delivery Jul16: 6,987

Hmmmm. Does this seem a little unusual to you? Me, too. In fact, go back and check the total amount of Comex gold deliveries for ALL OF 2015. Do you recall the number? 16,218 contracts for 51 metric tonnes. This year, the month of June alone nearly exceeded that total at 15,785 and 49 metric tonnes! And the just-completed, non-delivery month of July had a total of 6,987 contracts for 21.73 metric tonnes of "gold". This is FIVE TIMES the delivered total for ALL of the 2015 non-delivery months COMBINED.

And the trend doesn't appear to be reversing in the just-begun delivery month of August. At contract "expiration" last Thursday, the CME reported that there were 14,402 Aug16 gold contracts still open and indicating a willingness to "stand for delivery" this month. As you can see above, delivery notices for 5,028 contracts have already been sent out so August appears set to challenge June's record for total Comex gold "deliveries" in one calendar month.

Quite an interesting trend, eh? This is all definitely something that we will monitor all month and through the remainder of the year.

BUT

At the end of the day, you should be asking yourself "why does this even matter?". As stated above, almost ALL Comex deliveries are nothing more than an exchange of warehouse receipts and warrants and very little physical metal ever changes hands. Therefore, to claim that some kind of "delivery failure" or "default" emanating from the Comex is forthcoming would be naive. The true importance of this information is in its significance as a DATAPOINT OF GLOBAL DEMAND FOR ALL FORMS OF GOLD. Consider:

The tonnage of gold flow around the globe...from West to East and from South to North.
The extreme and surging growth of "inventories" in the gold ETFs
Total open interest on Comex, which by July 11 had grown 73% from January 29
Global Mint and Central Bank demand, including China and Russia
Interest in owning mining shares has sent the HUI index up over 170% year-to-date

And now we have Comex allegedly "delivering" gold at a never-before-seen record pace.

We are truly in a brave new world my friend...off the map and into the region marked "beyond which be dragons". These historical anomalies in Comex "delivery" are just another datapoint that signals extreme, global demand for gold in all its current forms. Our hope here at TFMR is that, one day soon, the entire Bullion Bank Paper Derivative Pricing Scheme will finally collapse as delivery demands simply overwhelm the Bullion Banks' ability to supply physical gold on a just-in-time basis to an insatiably hungry investment world.

When will this day come? It's impossible to say with certainty given the deliberately opaque nature of the current system. However, the day WILL come and you had best prepare for that eventuality. Buy gold and TAKE PHYSICAL DELIVERY NOW before it's too late because, when the music stops and the paper games end, I can promise that you DO NOT want to one of the sad, uninformed few left holding nothing but a stack of meaningless paper certificates.

TF

[pr0t0n] 01/8/2016 15:52

Well , he reckons Lidya will buy us out.

[pr0t0n] 01/8/2016 15:45

Brent Cook @6m.16s

[tinker10] 01/8/2016 14:43

Canada closed today...

[cpap man] 01/8/2016 14:25

Don Coxe: Negative Rates to Take Gold to Heights Never Before Seen in History of Mankind



As a historian, Don Coxe is cautious in saying there is something new under the sun. He didn't think he would live long enough to see the creation of an entirely new asset class, which is negative and seemingly endless in scope. Negative yields were first created by the self-financing Swiss to get the euro-zone moving again. Don likens them to the multiplying of bad germs, and finds it likely that there will be painful corrections in the economy, the stock market, or both.

Negative yields are a big challenge to the mathematics of wealth accumulation. This fastest-growing asset class not only won't pay you, but it won't pay you back. It challenges the capital asset pricing model, which is the basis of all actuarial valuations and pension plans. Paying dividends to stock holders and interest to their bankers and bond holders had been the process since the birth of capitalism. It's a new crisis for social security and pension funds around the world.

Stock markets are going to new recovery highs, without any good economic news to justify them. No one is predicting economic growth above 2.5% at most. There is nothing embedded in this to justify the price-earnings ratio aside from the dividends which are being financed by issuing extremely low-yield bonds. If the only formula for giving rewards to investors is to borrow to pay dividends and to buy back stock, then a major stock market sell-off will happen at some point.

All of this is good for gold and silver because of the rising value of financial assets, and the sheer scale of government debts. Gold and silver are among the top performing asset classes in the world. As we see the gold bull market unfolding, we should invest in mining companies, which bring more of a predictable return. When going into mining stocks, one should have a view that things will get better for the price of bullion. Year-to-date the mining companies are up roughly 95%, and gold is up 26.7%, which certainly fits the bill for a bull market.



Talking points from this week's interview:
• We should see painful corrections in the economy and/or stock market
• US government debt has more than doubled since Obama's presidency
• Gold and silver are among the top performing assets in the world
• Saudi fear of Iran, plus fracking led to the crash in oil prices
• Tesla's big success is solely due to government subsidies

[pr0t0n] 01/8/2016 14:14

It`s hard to know how many shares %-wise have been registered over-there.
Gersemi , I think you asked that question few weeks back.
My best guess would be between 30 and 40 millions out of 120 million issued.
Now, there are 22 million warrants which are in possession of North Americans.
This question is for Glen, and I`ll email him .

[maximoney1] 01/8/2016 11:10

Looks like the mini correction is complete with the exact touch to the rising trend support, seems like a good entry point to me, just surprised there hasn't been more buying this morning.
Guess they are all waiting for $spot gold to pop back up thro $1357 ;-)

[gersemi] 31/7/2016 20:59

dilbert

Meaningless nonsense. Of zero relevance to MARL

[pr0t0n] 31/7/2016 17:27

Bit of stand-off there last couple of weeks, nothing is happening or confirmed happening ( last thing we need now ...lol)

[dilbert dogbreadth] 31/7/2016 11:32

more info on Turkey
Worrying developments at Incirlik amid 2nd Gulenist coup rumours

[gersemi] 30/7/2016 11:51

This post is from one of the most informed posters on ADVFN. His knowledge of the gold and silver 'space' is second to none..as you can see he reckons Gold's still some way to go..

thanks to Chippeford

Evening Niels,

Yes. Gold OI has dropped from the record (2,031 tonnes) on the 5th July to 1,793 tonnes on the 26th July.

Likewise the Commercial Net Shorts (Banks) have reduced from 1,058 tonnes on the 5th to 961 tonnes on the 26th. So it looks like they are starting to fold in the face of an increasingly untenable situation and are having to cover their shorts.

Bit different for Silver. Although Silver OI has dropped slightly from the prior high of 34,090 tonnes on the 19th to 33,949 tonnes on the 26th the Banks have further increased their record level of Net Short to 16,660 tonnes from 16,525 tonnes in the prior week. My guess is that this is going to end badly for them!

It looks like a big month (August) for deliveries in gold. It appears to be starting with 5,028 x 100 oz contracts being stopped (that's 15.64 tonnes)! This is quite likely to rise over the month.

So far there is no data for initial Silver delivery.

Have a good weekend
Chip

cont..

Niels (further to above post re Comex)

August OI for gold is 42,275 contracts - c. 131 tonnes! So deliveries being posted this coming month look very interesting.

August is non-active for Silver BUT September OI is currently 'off the wall' at 158,599 x 5,000 oz contracts - c. 24,665 tonnes (nearly a year's production in the 'real' world)!! So there must surely be a very large reduction in Silver September OI over the next month. Either the banks 'double down' with their short supply and finally force Long closing OR the price holds up in the face of all this paper supply and the Shorts are forced to close. If the latter then expect some sharp movements in the PoS.

Much depends on the Shanghai International physical market as a widening gap creates arbitrage opportunities. Both metals have been held in quite a narrow range relative to the SGE since the April opening of that market.

Frankly, I do not expect gold to weaken now but there must still be a chance that the COMEX/LBMA combo will succeed in pushing Silver down for one last time. If so I would view it as a good buying opportunity.

We shall see!
Chip

[doolittle] 29/7/2016 20:35

Fortunately my bed and isa earlier this year sub 2p went without a hitch. I can't buy over the phone either so try elsewhere.

[cpap man] 29/7/2016 19:30

LOL....most probably why you Doolittle in the markets!

[gersemi] 29/7/2016 18:30

Gold going bonkers!!

[greenrichard] 29/7/2016 15:55

I bought another 11,000 earlier through TD Direct with no problem. I think that there is a big seller and when finished should be a nice rebound.

[barrywhit] 29/7/2016 15:51

Not come across that before Doolittle..