Marechale Capital Share Discussion Threads

[herschel k] 25/8/2015 10:40

trout has a point.

I bought in here at 2.5p, but have sold out my entire holding yesterday and today.

it may rise again on PP being granted tonight, assuming it is, but long-term the numbers in the header are simply misleading IMO.

statements such as this:

"One of the six deals in the first half, is for the solar farms that my research points to having a built value of £950M."

sorry, but that's absolute nonsense.

my research points to the fact that it cost £37m to build the Kencot Solar Farm which is 127 acres.

the Desborough site is some 113 hectares, which is just under 283 acres, so a cost of £82m to build (assuming similar costs per acre to Kencot - clearly, big assumption).

in other words, a built value of some 10 times less than the statement in the header? (approximately)

sorry, but I can't see how the returns will be so massive, particularly now it has already ten bagged from the low.

you might get to 15p on grant of pp and, if so, great.

H

[big7ime] 25/8/2015 10:25

It's starting to get interesting at CBuy, wait til the mass mkt picks up on it.


"“Unlike a B2C online place, corporate purchases are done in a controlled environment without compromising on their ERP solutions,” Gopali said. “We have received enquiries from several large Indian corporates to establish a secured façade or solution between their ERP and a B2B online marketplace to provide a dynamic B2C-style experience to meet their procurement needs.”

[ten bag man] 25/8/2015 09:32

For investors looking for the next TEN Bagger they might like to research CBUY.

After seeing MAC and TERN ten bag over the last year it could be time for investors to take profits.

In both stocks the very easy money has been made in my view.

That said both could do very well but they are now starting from a far higher base line.

[troutisout] 25/8/2015 09:20

Hamida,

I know but it is unlikely to get to 20p. That would value the Company at it's full share of a completed 49MW solar farm (with subsidies that are no longer available) and it hasn't even been built yet, so 20p is a ridiculous share price

Flippers will try and push it up, but hopefully everyone can do a little research and maths and not got caught by them.
Let's face it, it isn't just the pump and dumpers, the MMs must have a big short position here and they will be happy to keep selling that upwards and averaging it up.
We all know you buy the rumour and sell the news, they will be merciless ....

[ten bag man] 25/8/2015 09:16

This stock has Ten bagged Since my research, and it just might be time to move on for those that have made those kind of returns as it's not in my view going to TEN bag from here.

If the company says it's got the old rates of grant then it's NOT a sell.

They could have said that in the RNS last week if they had which to me is a bit of a worry.

[troutisout] 25/8/2015 09:14

I think the planning permission being granted is a given with the SP, what many haven't realised is the financials going forward.

Even MAC state this,

"The environment for developing large scale solar schemes continues to be challenging, and whilst we are hopeful that value will be realised in due course, there are still significant risks involved."

"In addition to the large scale solar sites in the UK, on which it has option agreements, Northfield is also diversifying its activities, with some smaller renewable projects, in order to reduce risk. Notwithstanding the closing of a second round of funding in the period under review at a higher implied valuation, we have continued to carry our investment at Northfield at GBP120,000. Northfield's future value is dependent on its sites securing planning permission and then being either developed or sold. It is true to say that it is becoming increasingly difficult to do this owing to the decreasing political support for such solar PV schemes and uncertainty over current CFD pricing."

"while the closing of this fundraising represents a positive development for Northfield and for Marechale, there remains a high degree of uncertainty over the future realisable value of the Company's shareholding in Northfield which is unquoted"

[hamidahamida] 25/8/2015 09:10

troutisout. You are absolutely right but most of these Mac buyers are T traders all they are interested in is 20p they all will be out before the bulldozers are in.

[troutisout] 25/8/2015 09:05

Barnetpeter,

- Just on your point, say a 49MW solar farm built was worth £50m (note I say was!)
- Mac currently holds 26% equity in Northfield (note I say currently!)

- That would be £13m, just over double the current Mkt Cap.

- But the solar farm needs to be built and that will need funds of tens of millions

- raising funds won't be as easy due to the stopping of guaranteed subsidy in April this year, likely to cost more to secure funds.

- previous small fundraising diluted MACs equity in Northfield

- Financial viability unclear without subsidy and therefore value not the same as other sold solar farms that had guaranteed subsidy

- Solar isn't viable without subsidy for at least another 5-10 years

- With low cost of oil renewables will struggle to compete without more subsidy not less

[ten bag man] 25/8/2015 09:05

On this I have to agree in part with TROUT.

MAC may have got in the planning talks prior to the rule change, and thus may take the Government to court (through the trade) with others, to keep the old rates of grant.

They may also have the lowest costs,( far lower than the boom days of last year.)

They may also hit the landowner to trim back his gain.

The Government might also up the rates out of the blue in the years to come and the farm can then be built.

They may also be trying to market the farm to see if their are any offers.

Best thing is to ring MAC up and ask.

I fail to understand why any investor has not done just that

[hamidahamida] 25/8/2015 09:05

Site with permission is worth 20p and that's all the flippers are interested in troutisout do you really think all these investors will be hanging around for the site to be built.

[troutisout] 25/8/2015 08:56

The decision is likely to go with Northfield from what has been published, but take away the ramps and look at the situation.

1. Planning Permission for a 49MW solar farm.
2. Tens of Millions to be raised to fund development of the project.
3. ROCs stopped for all solar projects over 5MW
4. CfD system does not give visibility to future subsidy especially as it doesn't favour large scale solar.
5. Last fundraising for Northfield raise d£300k and MACs equity diluted from 33% to 26%
6. Amber Rudd has recently stated that subsidies to solar farms could be stopped.


So first the value will not be the same as any farm that has been built and producing and earning ROC subsidy.
Second raising funds will be harder and therefore likely to cost more as the future visibility to the earning of any subsidy isn't there any more.

Now it doesn't take a lot of research to see what others are saying about the changes and how it will affect solar. So while the planning permission raises the value of Northfield and therefore MAC, taking it any further will be much harder and higher risk than just 6 months ago when previosu subsidies were in place.

Even MAC have pointed this out to shareholders and while they state significant uplft in value, that was from a point where it has since 6 bagged so maybe it is all in the price.....

[troutisout] 25/8/2015 08:42

barnetpeter,
Yes it was and what subsidy was it on? Desborough will not qualify for ROCs, guaranteed subsidy from the Govt.
The only reason Solar is viable at the moment is via the subsidy, they (solar industry)don't see themselves being able to stand on their own feet until 2020 (although the solar industry body has recently stated 2025-2027). Therefore by having the risk of not getting any subsidy with the CfD system where all sorts of renewables (not just large scale solar) are fighting for a share of a small pot of subsidy and one which onlookers feel the Govt will be reducing shortly, makes any future viability outlook very unsettled.

People might want to think why the current solar farms are going for so much and why there was a rash of them built before the change in subsidy.
Quite simply because the ROCs made it viable and they are no longer available to new large scale solar farms.

[panamabob] 25/8/2015 08:41

It all hangs on tonights meeting.There will be a massive loss of confidence should the decision go against MAC. But I am very optimisitic.

[barnetpeter] 25/8/2015 08:35

We know all this. But you miss the point that if permissions are given then Mac owns a stake in a company that has a very big agreement. More cash is needed and one of the big players will be looking around. Mac will almost certainly sell its stake for a substantial profit. One of these was sold for 50 million plus recently.

[h2owater] 25/8/2015 08:22

Tomorrow 7:00amThe directors of Marechale Capital note the recent press speculation and the increase in its share price.Further to the statement in the Company's Annual Report for the year ended 31 March 2015, the Company confirms that a meeting of the Full Planning Committee of Kettering County Council (the "Committee") is scheduled to be held on 25 August 2015 for the purpose of considering the planning application made in respect of Desborough Airfield, the proposed site of the Northfield UK Solar Limited ("Northfield") project (the "Application"). Whilst the development control manager has recommended to the Committee that the Application be approved, no decision has yet been made.Should the Committee approve the Application, Northfield will move onto the next stage of developing the project - including seeking to contract for the construction of the site.Further announcements will be made in this regard, if appropriate, in due course.

[troutisout] 25/8/2015 08:17

bob.

You are the one with misinformation,

why don't you read up a little on the subsidy situation and what others in the industry are saying.

Why don't you look at how MACs share of Northfield was diluted from 33% down to 26% in the last fundraising which was for a 5 figure sum and work out how much dilution there will be with a large 7 figure sum needed to be raised.
Or are you seriously saying that someone is going to lend tens of millions to Northfield and not want anything in return???
That MAC will remain a 26% equityholder in Northfield when these funds are raised and that the revenue from a large scale solar plant is the same as it was 6 months ago even.

I scalped a nice profit here on the planning news and am happy to have sold when I did, because most here haven't a clue about the large solar situation and returns now being offered with the CfD system and the threat of a complete cut in subsidy next April.

Do some research there is loads out there and remember you cannot compare existing solar farms and their figures as they are working on guaranteed ROC subsidies that are no longer available.

[hamidahamida] 25/8/2015 08:14

Could not find any local opposition in the media to this project to cover the air base with solar panels, imho council will grant permission tonight.

[panamabob] 25/8/2015 07:53

Its incredible that the usual suspects are still trolling around.In future they have to justify their misinformation.Much greater scrutiny and consequenes are coming soon.

[tees maar khan] 24/8/2015 23:48

I suspect the herd will be scrambling for the exit tomorrow or later on in the week.TMK

[apfindley] 24/8/2015 22:44

oh hello its hitman/johndee magic multialias pumping machine.
whats up fella didnt your clear leisure and tern organised pumping go to plan today.
they were RED, Gwmo was BLUE.
dont you feel silly now?

[apfindley] 24/8/2015 21:49

ok this is my last mention of GWMO on here, then i wont mention again...
take a look at the message with satellite images i've put on the GWMO board.

[granitetim] 24/8/2015 19:50

It's a nominee account and if they choose to top slice or run free thats good doesn't mean they are doing it for the reason it will fail or fall it's just good business sense for their incvestors

[troutisout] 24/8/2015 16:46

It's a VCT not PIs.

Granitetim,

Can I ask as you what you know about large solar farm subsidies?
Particularly the end of ROCs last April and the recent comments by Amber Rudd on solar subsidies.

Have you seen the companies comments on it and those of others in the solar industry?

Also reading back through results it would seem that on the raising of £300k more finance for Northfield, Marechale's holding in Northfield went from 33% to 25%.

So what happens when they want to raise tens of millions to develop the site at Desborough? How much will this dilute MAC's holding?

Just google solar farm subsidies and you will see lots on the subject, very interesting and a must for anyone looking to invest here. Especially those that might have seen financial comparisons with other built windfarms (as these have the guaranteed subsidies through ROCs but they have been stopped for new farms over 5MW). That is also the reason so many solar projects were built last year to get in before the much flagged cut in subsidy.

This from a report shows what other solar farm developers feel,

"Government Support

These comments are echoed by Jonathan Selwyn, managing director of Lark Energy Commercial which developed the Ketton solar project.

Speaking at the project's opening on Monday, Selwyn said: “The recent changes in government support means that many large scale solar projects of this type are now not viable."