Guy Gittins, chief executive of Foxtons, echoed her comments, and painted a positive outlook for the property sector.
He said the estate agency chain’s under-offer sales pipeline is at its highest since the EU referendum in 2016.
I reflect a very similar positive outlook on on the year ahead, particularly when you look at the sales and lettings markets still recovering from what happened with the Covid shock and the budget of 2022 the market, we know for sure the sales market will be considerably better in 2025 than it was in 2024.
Each time we see even, even a small interest rate reduction brings with it a wave of new buyers being able to come back into the market. So we start at the start of this year with great momentum. We’ve seen our under offer sales pipeline – that’s the number of sales that we’ve placed into solicitors hands – the value and the volume of that pipeline is actually at its highest rate since the EU referendum. |
Will it all be in savings accounts? Current accounts have not been paying much. |
interest received of 88000 suggests cash balance during the year was much lower than year end figure of 4.1m? |
Sales agreed up 23% and expected further significant expansion of site numbers sounds very promising for this year. |
More signs the housing market is starting to improve? |
Guardian business News Live:
Matt Thompson, head of sales at Chestertons, says December has been a busier month than normal, as buyers search for homes:
Pent-up demand caused by this year’s economic uncertainty is a key reason for this delay in buyer activity and indicates that 2024 will start off with a rather active property market.” |
Almost 200 homes in London have been sold for £10m in the past year as the super-rich’s pandemic-inspired desire for a place in the country wanes compared to their wish for swish bolt-holes in the capital.
A total of 175 homes were sold for £10m-plus in the 12 months to November 2023, the highest number for eight-years, according to research by the estate agent Knight Frank. |
Investormeet presentation: |
Results look pretty steady considering the difficult market. Rentals look like they might be starting to top out but sales completions look promising. I note more cash on the balance sheet than this time last year despite payables being about £400k down and receivables being similar.
Pipelines of agreed sales have begun to rebuild since the start of the year but, as transaction timeframes have been slow, many of these agreed sales will not complete until H2 of this year. As a result, we would anticipate that the number of completions will firm up as the year progresses. |
M WINKWORTH: Acceptable FY 2022 Shows Ordinary Dividends Up 18% To Lift Yield To 7.6% But ‘Delayed’ Property Sales Prompt FY 2023 Warning And Reduces Possible Payout Cover Towards 1x #WINK
The owner-managers 'prioritise' income as 'challenging' times loom for my favourite estate agency. |
Winkies are the first to report amongst their peers on trading conditions in H1.! This indicates that the have a strong hand on the rudder
v
You can always rely on the BODS to deliver an update totally devoid of any spin or flannel
They never overcook the goose.
To be just 6% down on revenue in a challenging market is more than respectable
Lookig at inventories still plenty coming throigh but perhaps taking a little longer to complete
Form is tremporay class is permanant Vendors are more likely to choose Winkies in many of the areas they cover.
It's notucebale that the heavy artillery branches att Beckenham Blackheath and Harriungay all have healthy inventories with no noticeable fall off in deals in solictor's hands
Very much a strong hold |
Insolvencies in May were up 40% on the previous year so the trend is worsening. The number of houses for sale in areas I follow are up about 200% on 2 years ago and 50% on last year. They're not selling. Unemployment is +182k since the low 9 months ago. They've just raised rates again, which will take a while to sink in and make things worse. I think a deep recession is unavoidable. It could be very deep - even worse than 2008. WINK is slowly expanding and has a strong balance sheet. It will take market share in tough times as some independents fail. But it will be tough. |
interesting response to profit warning, buyers assume the lettings market will hold or advance and the sales market downturn will be short-lived over soon. perhaps so if interest rates drop later in the year and a deep recession and unemployment is avoided. on the other hand, plenty of zombie companies out there that may go bust and shed staff according to R4 this am. |
M WINKWORTH: Yield Approaches 7% Despite Acceptable H1 2022, Quarterly Dividends Lifted 23% And Confidence Towards £2m Profit Forecast #WINK
"The board therefore has good reason to ensure the dividend is sustained during any difficult times." |
Trading in the third quarter of the financial year was good, with a sharp increase in sales year-on-year due in part to an overhang of uncompleted transactions from the second quarter, but also as levels of interest remained strong. Lettings showed good growth, held back only by a shortage of available properties, particularly in London.
We have not as yet witnessed a negative impact from the mini-budget on applications and sales and, although higher mortgage rates are likely to put a cap on further price appreciation, we anticipate that an increased supply of properties and persistent strong demand will support transactions for the rest of the current year.
The Directors expect that full year pre-tax profits will be at least in line with the market forecast of GBP2.1m.
Eric |
 Winkworth plc posted Interims for HY2022 this morning, results were in line with expectations and show good progress against 2019 but inevitably look soft compared to extraordinary H1 2021 comparative. Network revenues were down by 24% to £27.7 million, Winkworth revenues were down 18% to £4.28 million. Group PBT was down by 46% to £1.07 million, a dividend of 5.4p was declared during the period. CEO Dominic Agace observed, the “business has developed well since the last year of normalised trading in 2019” and the Group “enters the second half with an overhang of unfulfilled business.” Performance is solid but will clearly dip from bumper FY21 numbers. Valuation is pretty reasonable, the business is very high quality, share price is consolidating early year gains near record highs. The macro outlook looks to be the main risk to the share price, the housing sector is directly in the firing line of higher interest rates. And smaller caps generally perform worse in periods of derisking. Certainly a decent company, but a share worth monitoring for the time being...
...from WealthOracle |
Although the offices are shifting stock there is a noticeable fall off in supply which will mean H2 revenue is under the cosh
Some of the more expensive inner London postcodes are running on empty with very few sales in the pipeline
Be very surprisied if H2 22 matches H2 21 which was adversly affected by the ending of stamp duty reliefs
Both Tooting and Crystal Palace where they have an equity interest continue to perform well it's been a little bit disappointing that this formula hasn't been repeated elsewhere as they get to keep more of the pie
During the last 2 years Ewemove have ramped up their franchisee recruitment, Although the steady hand on the rudder appeals at Winkies a little bit more action wouldn't go amiss |
M WINKWORTH: Outstanding FY 2021 Heralds Promising FY 2022 Following 23% Q1 Dividend Lift And Prospect Of Sales Again Exceeding Lettings #WINK
"Operating profit surged 113% to set WINK’s best-ever yearly performance"
|
...from last year...
Company overview:
Winkworth’s original office opened in 1835 and it is the first estate agency to franchise. The company is traditionally linked to the London market which as we stated above is a major factor for good performance. The strategical advantage Winkworth provides is the brand name, which is of great importance to estate agents, especially in a market such as London. WINK provides the agents with platform accessing compliance, marketing, public relations and admin services. The company has adopted a more organic approach towards growth, with no major acquisitions in the past decade.
Let us begin with the red flags we should be looking. First of all, the ending of stamp duty relief – this has been one of the key drivers of the real estate sector. This will inevitably pull back the volumes in the sector in the coming periods. The other big red flag are interest rates – with demand supported by mortgage rates at 1% this topic requires a lot of analysis and is important to be reviewed regularly. Lastly, the stock itself is quite illiquid with spread at around 1050bps.
To balance off the negativity there are plenty of positives. Although prices of RE may fall in the coming periods the sticky nature of rental income could smooth out the overall performance. In the interim report for 2021 the company is presenting a 92% growth in network revenues to £36.4m which is driven by 195% rise in sales and 11% in lettings. The growth is channelled to PBT level which is 330% above comparable period at £1.98m. Management is aware of the unsustainable boost in profits coming from the favourable environment for purchases. The backlog of transactions will keep the momentum in H2 and there is a trend to move towards country with lockdowns changing the consumer behaviour. London is expected to rebound in the coming periods as international students start returning.
Short analysis:
Cash is at £4.57m, compared to £4.66m at the end of 2020 mainly due to dividends and non-controlling interest
Net debt negative, as cash covers debt levels
CA/CL = 3.08
Cash ratio = 2.16
P/S TTM = 3.78, which is better than the average for the industry
BV ps (2020) = 41.3, growing at 0.076% CAGR
Operating profit is £1.99m, 4.4x the H1 2020 results
Gross profit Margin is 86.7%, compared to 79.7% for H1 2020...
...from WealthOracleAM |
Agree with a lot of what MP says
Yet he poses the question
"Was the bumper FY 2021 a one off?"
The answer to that is yes.Instructions and sales well down from H1 2021 unsurprisingly I would say at least 30% with th shortage of new inventory
Central London offices are only firing on 2 cylinders
Lettings are holding up so I suspect H1 total network revenue is likely to be coming in at around £28m
Bearing in mind the success of Tooting I would have hoped for a few more of these shared ownership franchies It also gives them more skin in the gaame to feel the market more
The main threat isFoxtons now the new regime is emerging Also a fairly illiquid shres for exiting if needed Always the poosibility though of Simon Agace shareholding coming into play at some stage |
M WINKWORTH: Exceptional H1 Sets New £2m Profit High As Record Quarterly Dividend Plus Third Special Payout Underpin ‘Busy’ FY 2022 #WINK
"WINK managed to convert almost 38% of revenue into profit"
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