Lupus Capital Share Discussion Threads

[lefrene] 02/9/2010 15:59

Looking at the state of the USA new build housing market, my guess is that LUP is having a hard time.

[jeffian] 02/9/2010 14:04

Interims due on 8 Sept. I wonder if they will give us any guidance on the divi (this from the AR - "The Board is committed to the resumption of dividend payments, once permitted by the Group's banking arrangements, and when it believes it is prudent to do so, taking into account the Group's earnings, cash flow and balance sheet position.")

It is notable that a number of property-related companies who had waived or cut their divis in the slump have either re-instated a payment or announced their intention to do so (e.g. Persimmon, St. Modwen etc.). Time for LUP to do the same?

[zooter11] 12/8/2010 09:09

a spread of 78 to 84. why do they think this is necessary

[topvest] 08/7/2010 21:33

They could still do with getting their actual results out more quickly. Interims in September is too slow.

[jeffian] 08/7/2010 10:24

TP,

" a lot better than we ever got under greg!". I'm not sure that's true. Other than the ructions caused by the banking covenant thing, neither the interim management team nor the new board seem to have made any fundamental change to the way the business is run and my suspicion is that we would have had exactly the same results if GH had been in charge. Having said that, what's done is done and I hope we can now move forward without further strife from that direction. Now, if they were able to reinstate some sort of divi, we've got ourselves a proper investment again!

[smicker] 08/7/2010 08:29

Have to say i'm extremely pleased at how they've managed their way through the past few years and if we're paying down debt with the US housing market in the doldrums thats very positive.

[tuning peg] 08/7/2010 07:46

good anticipation mr byles! An encouraging trading statement although a pity we've not made more inroads on net debt. still, a lot better than we ever got under greg!

[lefrene] 01/7/2010 12:31

I think the concerns about house sales in the USA are over done. When you know an 8000 dollar handout is going to vanish on a certain date then you bring forward a purchase to beat the deadline, thus there is bound to be a lull when the handout finishes. It will be interesting to see how long house sales take to recover to the previous level. Any administration with half a brain would have had a gradual reduction in the tax incentive, instead of axing it in one slice.

[johnac] 01/7/2010 10:59

Drop anything to do with BP and Hurricanes ?

[jeffian] 16/6/2010 09:50

Not directly related to LUP, but interested to see good results today from RPC, where Jamie Pike has been Chairman for many years, which continues to produce increased profits, eps and dividends despite pressure on volumes and turnover caused by macro-economic conditions. They're doing it by focussing on costs/efficiencies and boosting ROCE. We have yet to see what Eperjesi brings to the table for LUP but I feel very comfortable having Pike at the helm.

[jeffian] 01/6/2010 09:09

Anyone have any feedback from the AGM? Directors' share purchases seem to be keeping the share price on the boil.

[matt123d] 28/5/2010 12:49

Proabably because there's no stock about, been trying to buy some all morning!

[jeffian] 27/5/2010 19:09

Thank you AB, that was helpful. On strategy, it seems pretty clear that the 'buccaneering' days of creating a conglomerate of (maybe disparate) companies is behind us, as is the idea that these should be managed relatively short term for onward sale at a profit. We seem to have settled into being an established Building Supplies business with a niche oil services side. No bad thing, maybe, but a change nonetheless.

I am still slightly concerned at the wooliness of the statements about the dividend. A Net Debt:EBITDA ratio is a pretty precise measure; why so coy about what it is? "Analysts" have no better idea than us, so their predictions for 2011/12 don't carry much weight, unless they DO know, in which case why shouldn't we?! The concern, obviously, is that we may discover that the ratio is set at a level which doesn't look achievable for a while leading to an extended dividend drought.

As I built my portfolio around dividend stocks, I have been particularly piqued (not to say 'damaged'!) by the number of companies which have been bullied into cutting or waiving their dividends altogether, often with perfectly respectable earnings-per-share being siphoned off entirely for 'debt reduction'. The banks seem to have the upper hand at the moment but I can't believe that institutional holders, a substantial proportion of whose returns over the years have come from dividends, will be prepared to put up with years without income and, after all, who owns the banks?!

[jeffian] 26/5/2010 11:21

Anyone going to the AGM on Friday? I was planning to but life (wife, actually) has intervened. The 2 questions I wanted to pursue were
1) What are the "net debt ratios" which have to be achieved before dividends can be reconsidered? I doubt they'll want to answer but it's hardly commercially sensitive, is it?
2) What's the strategy? Has the GH plan of buying, developing and ultimately selling (potentially different) businesses for profit been dropped and are we now a Building Products company with an Oil Services tail? The appointment of Mr. Eperjesi seems to indicate that but it would be nice to have a clearer picture.

Any feedback from attendees would be welcome.

[a0148009] 20/5/2010 09:15

LUP has been remarkably firm during the current volatility all sales being absorbed, clearly there has been a buyer but not enough to trigger an announcement yet - could this statement be the kiss of death!

AO

[9degrees] 04/5/2010 09:02

Gall thompson certainly supply Transocean USA with equipment , according to their customer list.

[jeffian] 28/4/2010 19:28

I notice that the problems of oil pollution following the sinking of the BP rig in the Gulf of Mexcico are due to the automatic shut-off valve at the well-head failing to activate. Anyone know if this is the GT breakaway coupling, or is it something different?

[jeffian] 16/4/2010 16:02

Nice to see we're on the move again.