Lupus Capital Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 18/1/2011 11:01

Yes, I saw the TW. statement, AB, and got quite excited as they highlighted North American market as a reason for their 'above expectations' performance. But when I read the whole thing, although they have improved margins, actually every other stat was down vs 2009! I reckon they had budgeted for Armageddon and it turned out slightly better than that. I note that they are trying to exit the North American market entirely.

Otherwise, things in the sector looking promising and, like you, I'm looking forward to a good update on Friday.

[envirovision] 14/1/2011 14:43

good op to buy ahead of the ta then

[jeffian] 12/1/2011 22:04

topvest,
A profit's a profit so I can't knock your thinking, but I'm not sure I accept your rationale. I'm more persuaded by AB's post (4084) that there is still scope for growth on fundamentals. This isn't a direct play on the current housing market; if you look at the housebuilding/materials sector they are anticipating recovery down the road. Thus you have the likes of Persimmon etc. saying how they are opening up new sites for development and you have the likes of TPK/WOS etc. moving ahead on both actual and anticipated further recovery in sales. Actually, LUP isn't that reliant on new housebuilding anyway as the majority of its products are bought for the repair, maintenance and improvement ("RMI") sector rather than new build and, of course, it is slanted towards the US/worldwide market. After all, without wishing to make light of a serious problem, one imagines there's going to be a bit of rebuilding going on in Australia, which was highlighted in their last report as one of their high-growth regions.

I, too, am in the happy position of being back in profit after years of being underwater but I'm going to hold on for a while yet. As for the divi, although I love 'em, you have to admit that the loss of a couple if years' divi pales into insignificance in the face of a sixfold rise in the share price!

[cockneyrebel] 12/1/2011 20:07

Looks a decent place to put your money to me still.

Dunno if you saw this from mid Dec:

"740 GMT [Dow Jones] Liberum starts coverage on Lupus Capital (LUP.LN) with a buy rating and a 140p price target. Sees the company's valuation as compelling. Says the stock is little known and the market overestimates financial risk and underestimates margin recovery potential. "We expect strong growth trends as margins (and markets eventually) recover," says Liberum. Shares closed at 104p"

Chart making a lovely bowl too imo:

[topvest] 12/1/2011 20:00

Yes, as I say - very pleased to see this recover. At the end of the day there is no dividend and little prospect of one for some time, so it's still an under-performing asset. There are better places to put your money in early 2011. I don't think the housing market will get going again for at least another 6m or so, and will keep looking in here to see what happens.

[jeffian] 12/1/2011 17:35

"Would be more interested if Greg got back on board."
a) it's not going to happen whilst the current insti's hold
b) it's never a particularly good thing going 'back to the future'
c) accepting the difficult market environment and the service he did in resisting dilution, his last period of leadership doesn't look that great (bearing in mind that the initial leap in January 2004 was a direct result of the announcement of his stake and involvement)


We are where we are and need to move on (as you appear to have done, topvest!).

[a0148009] 12/1/2011 17:18

We know that Greg is still well on board as he would be required to make an announcement on any sales - but look out if he does.

The big kicker is that he resisted a highly dilutive rights that the banks tried to force otherwise your investment may still be under water.

Putting share price in perspective the old high is 202p (not taking into account options)
in March 2007 with different management team and business plan.


AO

[topvest] 12/1/2011 14:14

I've sold all mine today. Amazingly, I have recouped more than my purchase cost. I never thought that would have been possible at one point given the covenant breach, so thought it was too good an opportunity to miss. Will keep watching and may get back in at some point, but think these have gone about as far as they can giving a dreadful housing market for 2011.

Would be more interested if Greg got back on board. Not sure I trust the new lot to work the same magic. Albeit, the covenant breach wasn't the best magic Greg has ever worked!

Good luck to all holders.

[cockneyrebel] 12/1/2011 10:37

Another 100K buy in here today - a keen buyer hlping push these up imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 11/1/2011 12:03

Seen the buying here today?

New board seem to be doing well - trading update on the 25th Jan or there abouts I think?

CR

[envirovision] 11/1/2011 10:31

Well HWDN reporting well above forecasts, should bode well for the window business.

No surprise we are searching for the clouds and a higher support level now.

[frenchfry] 10/1/2011 17:00

apologies! ah well, shows the tip is moving in the right direction!

[jeffian] 10/1/2011 16:58

Yes, it was posted here early December (post 4064)

[frenchfry] 10/1/2011 16:48

News a bit dated admittedly, (Daily Mail 11/12/2010), but LIBERUM Capital reckons our Lupus "has the potential to be a rising star among building materials companies. It has the potential to return to good profitability levels once the market recovers. ITS TARGET PRICE IS 140p."
In addition,
"Its entire board has been replaced since July 2009 with a high calibre team that could also run and add value to a much bigger group."
Just to put in context, Lupus price at the time of the above publication was 103.75p, so the share price is certainly moving in the right direction with some momentum.

[envirovision] 10/1/2011 11:14

see that 100,000 buy.

[smicker] 07/1/2011 09:16

See my timing was impeccable when i sold some pre new year!!

[simon gordon] 02/1/2011 16:57

MoneyWeek - 23/12/10:

6. Stuart Widdowson

SVG Investment Managers
+28.09%

E2V (up 87%) "has performed strongly this year", says Stuart Widdowson. On a modest p/e of nine it should make further progress in 2011. Despite disappointing trading results, Lavendon's depressed rating has attracted multiple suitors. For now, though, it's a "hold". Mecom's profit and cash flows have outperformed expectations. In spite of uncertainty around recruiting a new CEO, he still sees at least 200% upside for the shares on a two to three year view.

Lupus Capital (LSE: LUP) is his new tip for 2011. It's well positioned to continue taking market share in its core building products unit as end markets recover. The p/e is a modest 7.5, and with strong cash flow it will continue to pay down debt.

[smicker] 29/12/2010 14:28

re spread

sold a few this morning through selftrade when advfn was showing 111.75 but got just over 112 for them. Interesting that they seemed to get picked up almost immediately