Lupus Capital Share Discussion Threads

[smicker] 26/10/2010 14:32

Well looks like i wasnt too far off. Back to 108 now. Hopefully now that pulling the price down hasnt worked they'll target the profit takers!!

BTW anyone looked at todays trades? whats going on there

[smicker] 23/10/2010 15:58

I had remarked that the price seemed stuck for a few days with very little volume but a large spread. It seems to make sense then for the MM's to move the shares one way or another to attract some commission. The move to 100 seems very convenient to trigger a few stop losses and create some action?

The company has already said it will exceed expectations and we have had a large price move since the analysts visit so there is unlikely to be anything sinister

[a0148009] 21/10/2010 16:38

Any ideas what caused sell off on small volume - was this an impatient seller
or something more sinister - otherwise LUP looks cheap at this level with upgraded EPS of 13.2p for 2011.

AO

[jeffian] 15/10/2010 10:30

.....but not dollar-denominated earnings! Swings & Roundabouts?

[tuning peg] 15/10/2010 07:26

slide in the dollar should be very beneficial for the high level of dollar denominated debt.

[smicker] 14/10/2010 23:28

Surprised to find no comment on the SL increase RNS. Its nice to have an investor with such big pockets increase their holding to counter balance the possibility of GH reducing.

[jeffian] 12/10/2010 11:12

I don't think that's likely to happen for a number of reasons, giardap -
1) Cost
2) The fact that 80% of shareholders voted against him at the last EGM suggesting he has less than 10% support beyond his own shareholding and
3) the market seems to quite like the new management.

I would have thought the danger in the short- to medium-term is that GH will want to take his money out when he can, although whether a 10/11% holding overhanging the market would be sufficient to depress the share price, I don't know. With sentiment in the building supplies sector improving (Travis perkins, Wolseley etc.) there may well be sufficient demand to take his shares even if he did want out.

[giardap] 11/10/2010 20:26

Maybe price rise due to Greg and his buddies trying again to buy back control??

[a0148009] 11/10/2010 15:13

Onwards and upwards - at the risk of inviting the commentators curse
there is no stock around - disproportionate moves relative to turnover.
Heading for 130ish level initially to 10x 2011 forecast earnings 13.2p.

AO

[jeffian] 09/10/2010 11:20

Ah yes, I'd forgotten about the 'Incentive' shares. Thanks AB.

[jeffian] 08/10/2010 17:18

Now we're motoring. Another few pence and I'm in the money! That also sets me wondering about GH's holding - he must nearly be there too (his original holding was acquired at the equivalent of 90p) - so will he start dumping stock?

[jeffian] 07/10/2010 10:02

Nice little recovery going on here recently. I'm in serious danger of achieving breakeven if this carries on!

8-)

[a0148009] 10/9/2010 08:57

This is one of the major problems for most businesses since the credit crunch, credit insurers are still very nervous and they are an essential element of financing - it affects purchases and sales.


"The Group's tight focus on working capital has remained in place, with
investment in inventory only permitted where there is clear evidence of demand.
Concern over customer defaults, and continued limited availability of credit
insurance, means that management of receivables remains a high priority. During
the period we have been successful in partially extending credit insurance cover
for some of our key suppliers which has had a beneficial effect on our payables
position."

AO

[hiq] 08/9/2010 20:16

My charts say 68p

[tuning peg] 08/9/2010 19:36

Despite the company's economic use of words around the net debt story, it is hardly compelling. In actual fact in the 6 months to June net debt repayments have only been £2m!

Opening net debt was £111.0m, add the £4.4m adverse FX movement takes us to £115.4m. Take off the debt repayments of £7.5m would take us to £107.9m. However net debt at the end of June was actually £113.4m, which means the company saw interest accruing of £5.5m.

Effectively then, the £7.5m debt repayment less the £5.5m interest accrued leaves a net debt reduction of £2m.

I would say that this is disappointing progress at it's going to take a VERY long time to reduce our gearing to sensible levels and hence the prospect of a divi.

This might explain the company's vague language around the timing and amount of any dividends coming our way.

I've said before that this is going to be a long old slog and I haven't changed my mind on the back of the results. That said I'm not selling - my break even point after Greg's stewardship is 120p / share. Patience, patience, as ever.

Still at least I got some good news on my other major building products share this week - NXR - now here is a company that's really going places despite the recession and has taken some proper steps to get its gearing significantly down.

[lefrene] 08/9/2010 11:48

The results are a bit better than I expected, though not surprised by the good sales at Gall Thompson. Seems to me that they are concentrating on paying down debt while interest rates are low, the divi can wait until they are comfortable with debt levels. The future looks 'steady as she goes', but i get the impression the Board are not entrepreneurs, more the sensible management career type.

[jeffian] 08/9/2010 11:31

Pretty good results as expected but I'm still slightly disappointed they are being so mysterious about the divi. I'm sure that many PI's (and other investors) from the Hutchings era were specifically attracted to the stock by the generous and progressive divi and are looking for its reinstatement asap. It's all very well saying "the Board is committed to the resumption of dividend payments...." but what does this mean? ".....once permitted by the Group's banking arrangements, and when it believes it is prudent to do so, taking into account the Group's earnings, cash flow and balance sheet position." It would hardly be commercially sensitive to let us know the hurdles that have been set so we can make a judgement for ourselves as to when/if payments might be restored.

[lefrene] 02/9/2010 16:30

Anyone taking a new position now is 'guessing'. I would expect Gall Thompson to be doing well as events in the Gulf will have sharpened minds about the cost of inadvertant oil spills. The building products will do well to move sideways, I will be intrigued to see management costs.

[jeffian] 02/9/2010 16:20

Well it wasn't having that hard a time at the last trading update less than 2 months ago! Remember that the majority of their US building products business is 'Repair & Replacement' rather then 'New Build'.

"Trading conditions in both the US and UK new build housing markets remained difficult in the first half of the year, however repair maintenance and improvement ("RMI"), which is the Division's principal market, showed more resilience.......
.................We remain optimistic about the Company's prospects for the balance of the year in our International Building Products business. The outlook for the UK Building Products business is less clear.

In Oil Services, we expect a continued solid performance from Gall Thomson, underpinned by the increasing environmental focus of the offshore oil industry."

No need to "guess"; we'll know within a few days.