Low & Bonar Share Discussion Threads

[baner] 11/1/2018 17:57

BOD probably trying to raise new money to secure their remuneration packages. However new activist shareholders likely to sack them soon. Would be a relief.

[justiceforthemany] 11/1/2018 17:29

I assume (and hope) the CEO is leaving for a better salary and bonus + it's a bigger company with 3x market cap of LWB.

[cc2014] 11/1/2018 11:53

Well buys going through at 55 now so it looking good.

I would have thought yesterday's manufacturing figures would have made it look more attractive

[cascudi] 11/1/2018 11:52

the seller has gone....

[baggariddim] 11/1/2018 11:41

Hopefully the shackles are off.

[cc2014] 11/1/2018 11:20

After the 1m sale at 52.75 we seem at last to have broken the back of the seller.

It's interesting that as soon as the seller at 53 was finished a couple came out above it as if someone was waiting for confirmation.

I expect we will see a few people on CFD's happy to close for a penny or two and then we are off to higher realms

[justiceforthemany] 09/1/2018 22:49

Should be DOUBLE that. share price nearer 90-100p

[justiceforthemany] 09/1/2018 22:48

No one can deny a P/E of 7 is VERY CHEAP though!

[justiceforthemany] 09/1/2018 22:47

Today's market is highly rogue I'm afraid. Minimal 'real' info for the PI and insider trading is rife.

[cc2014] 09/1/2018 13:19

Quite astonishing. The seller is back at 53.0 today.

He really does seem to have an endless quantity.

Not much else to say because it's certainly keeping a lid on the share price.

Eventually he will run out. Surely. Probably when I least expect it.

[cc2014] 08/1/2018 17:24

Looks like the seller is still going but he's gone non-aggressive and happy to wait for the buyers to arrive. Suggests to me he doesn't have many left

[redartbmud] 04/1/2018 14:57

If it is one of the institutions, and they sell enough shares, they are obliged to declare the disposal when they cross a threshold.

[rathkum] 04/1/2018 14:50

If it means anything - Edison have PBT coming in at £36.3, EPS 7.4p. DPS 3.3p for 11/18

[cc2014] 04/1/2018 12:53

Things looking a bit better today. The seller at 53 hasn't come out today, although I'm suspicious he is at 54 instead. If so this would tend to suggest he's coming to the end of them and it trying to get a slightly better price for them.

Who knows how many he has left? As long as he's getting fills and the buy volume continues to go through at 53.4 he'll probably stay where he is. Maybe he will get bored and move back to 53 later in the day

[cc2014] 03/1/2018 14:46

I'm trying to figure out who's selling.

I have gathered the following information so far:
1. Sterling and Luxempart have bought 14.14m shares since the RNS on 20.12

2. There has been considerable buying from other parties as evidenced by the published trades, but none of them are large enough to trigger an RNS.

3. No RNS has been published regarding who is selling the shares which kind of makes sense as the trade is still being worked based on the volume that continues to go through at 53. As a guesstimate it looks like around 20-25m shares have gone through although how much of it is churn is hard to say



4. The following have holdings over 14.14m shares
a) Schroder 14.86. At first I thought it was Schroder selling out as one point they did hold 27.07m shares and have sold in the last 12 months but it would seem fare more than their holding has been sold. Perhaps part of it is Schroder.

b)M&G 15.82m shares could be but they don't seem to have enough

c)Henderson 16.54m. Same as M&G although they have added in the last year

d)Aberforth 19.62m. Possible but they have bought 6.8m in the last year so doesn't seem likely

e) Unicorn 21.43m. Possible but in my experience Unicorn tend to invest and hold very long term

which leaves me with AXA 32.9m and Hambro 34.2m which now appear to be the most likely candidates unless it's one of the smaller ones along with some holders who are below 3%.


So, we will have to wait to find out. 95% of the trades today are at 52.9x and 53.0 so the total flow is one way bashing into the Marketmaker selling at 53.0 who will run out eventually

[cc2014] 03/1/2018 13:55

The results have been pretty much telegraphed in the trading update contained within the RNS on 20.12.17

Nothing much to say really. Profit between £30-31m. Debt of £138m. The only thing we don't really know is the level of non-recurrent costs of which there will be some for sure

[bend1pa] 03/1/2018 13:46

It's a gamble buying these now before the results. As long as there are no further unpleasant surprises then, like losses, rights issue or div cut then it could well be a bargain buy at this level.

What bothers me is that the CEO resigned immediately after the recent profit warning, even though he's not due to leave for several months yet. It tells me that the results will be bad, but hope I'm wrong.

[cc2014] 03/1/2018 10:14

Picked up a few more this morning at 53.0 as I believe the seller is done or nearly done by reference to the price going up to 54 for a while yesterday and volume dying down. Maybe the seller does have a few left but not so many that they are in a hurry now

It feels like the market is happy to soak them up.

I had real difficulty with my broker getting decent volume which is strange as there is a sell program running at 53.0

One of the brokers certainly wants nothing to do with it and are simply taking the trades and AT trading them off another marketmaker rather than trying to work them for a profit. Suggests one MM has all the stock to sell

18500 o trade = 6598+3402+8518 AT
5863 o trade = 3668+2064 AT
7500 o trade = 7500 AT

Volume starting to kick in taking off all the sells at 53, so the game is on

[eastbourne1982] 28/12/2017 23:16

"eastbourne you seem to think most companies have 'too much debt'."

Where are you getting your info from ?

[justiceforthemany] 28/12/2017 22:53

eastbourne you seem to think most companies have 'too much debt'. There is absolutely no need to do any rights issue here. Net assets of £206M and current liabilities just over 2x EBITDA. Despite exceptional costs due to the US hurricanes profit will still be HIGHER this year compared to last. A P/E of EIGHT is very low. Hedge funds and activist investors are buying in bulk at the moment. This is a prime takeover candidate IMO.

[eastbourne1982] 28/12/2017 19:58

The company has disappointed the market twice recently and has plenty of debt, on paper it should be cheap otherwise it would be overvalued.

In my earlier days I would have probably bought some by now however I have learnt disappointing trading along with high debt isn't a good combination and can result in a share price going a lot lower than it should.

I think these will be a good buy at some point however I wonder if we may go closer to 40p in the short term.

[justiceforthemany] 28/12/2017 19:24

Equity ratio of 1.8 is very solid. Take out all goodwill and intangibles leaves a still healthy equity ratio of 1.3. Dividend TWICE covered by earnings. P/E of just 8. New £26M factory fully functioning now in China with strong sales growth. Fears seem misplaced and way overdone IMHO.

[ewanwhose] 28/12/2017 16:29

Agree re inventory. The comment in the last results about "adverse sales mix" implies to me that they have stock that they can't shift at the moment. The worry would be that they struggle to shift some of it ever.