Low & Bonar Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 01/2/2018 13:36

Buyers keep coming slow and sure at 61.3x which is nice to see.

Hopefully the sellers taking 60 are getting worn down now

[glavey] 01/2/2018 05:51

Those fool headlines are just banal.
No need to read further.

[justiceforthemany] 31/1/2018 09:55

64.5p needs breaking first

[ed 123] 31/1/2018 09:38

CC2014

Well, with technical reasoning I suppose it reached 53p because that was the level at which the (unknown) institutional investors met the buy price of Sterling. Emotionally, there was fear that the warning update could have been the start of something bigger and I guess 53p was the expression of the worry.

It's a shame they didn't put more detail into the warning. Could they have given their estimated debt to ebitda ratio? Could they have mentioned the £12m pension gain? Such comforts would have reassured holders. The selling might then have been less and the share price might not have dipped below say 60p?

Justiceforthemany

90p? Maybe one day but it will need to show stability of earnings first.

[justiceforthemany] 31/1/2018 09:36

A company like this should in a fair market be trading at 15x EPS = 90p+

[cc2014] 31/1/2018 09:21

I'm surprised by the strength of the rise based on what I read this morning.

I guess having the CFO becoming CEO meant the company has been working hard on its strategy and you can see that in the RNS.

Besides that, it kind of said the dividend was secured for years at the current rate, the pension fund improvement was surprisingly good and well things haven't got any better or any worse since the previous update.

I can't say I understand the strength of the rise but there again I didn't understand why it was 53p in the first place, or indeed 65p for that matter.

It will be interesting to see how fast the share price rises. Alot of volume went through at 53,54,55 although many of the sells at 55 I think came from short term traders that bought at 53/54.

[ed 123] 31/1/2018 09:09

I'd been waiting for today with a little trepidation. Relieved. Comfortably inside the debt covenant ratio. That was important.

We got a bit of detail behind the last trading update. I didn't see any new negatives. Pleased they didn't rush to fire-sell the Civil Engineering Business Unit. Taking more time, they should be able to extract more value.

Today's update shows Sterling Strategic were right, buying at around 53p. I wasn't that bold.

Still work to be done here and no guarantees but it has recovery potential. Top management has come and gone at Low and Bonar over the years. No one seems to have ever got the various bits all working well at the same time. Maybe de Klerk will be the one? Who knows?

AGM in April - should get an update then. Interims in July will tell us how the full year is likely to end.

[cc2014] 31/1/2018 08:19

I have to say I don't think I've ever seen so little trades and price action after results.

Rising a bit now but on the basis of one trade at 58 I guess. I not Sing aren't making a market this morning so presumably they don't know where it is going either

[justiceforthemany] 31/1/2018 08:03

Apart from CE profits growth in all other divisions. China expansion almost complete. Forward P/E of 7-8 seems low. Dividend around 6%

[time_traveller] 31/1/2018 07:41

= old CFO. Better than nowt I guess. Results look a bit like the new guy is giving himself some elbow room to shine for the future.

[cc2014] 31/1/2018 07:40

CFO becomes CEO and kitchen sinks it.

Also, director of Strategic becomes NED.

Hard to work out how the market will react. Dividend held and they point out have 10 years of distributable reserves, Write off's were expected but are they higher than expected, Pension fund improvement of around £12m was quite a surprise. headline profit at higher end of £30-31m range given a month ago.

Is the debt reduction target of £15m in the year enough to satisfy the market?

[justiceforthemany] 31/1/2018 07:34

New CEO appointed.

[cc2014] 29/1/2018 09:19

This stock puzzles me. We know huge volumes of stock went through between 53 and 54 before it broke up to 55 where it's apparent someone is absorbing all they can get.

However, we never saw an RNS for the seller, but did see a variety of RNS for the buyers as they increased their holding.

Which would lead you to believe there were a number of sellers, which tbh doesn't make a lot of sense based on the gap down to 53 and the volume that went through.

I don't suppose we will ever find out.

[cc2014] 26/1/2018 10:27

It's interesting that alot of volume went through on the book yesterday at 55 and since then the bid is slowly ticking up and buyers are being made to pay 56.8 which is significantly more than at any time in the last 10 days when the price has been stuck in the 55-56 range.

It's early in the day but it looks like the seller at 55-56 has finished and the buyers are happy to nudge it up a bit.

It does look promising and 55 seems to be holding as a level of support now.

[bend1pa] 26/1/2018 10:01

Starting to look quite promising. Sp currently has managed to bounce about 10% above the low it reached in December. Long way to go yet, but I think this might be a good recovery play. Buy on weakness.

[justiceforthemany] 24/1/2018 12:11

Y/E Nov Revenue EBITDA PBT (£m)EPS (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2015A 362.1 46.0 27.4 5.8 9.6 5.4
2016A 402.2 52.8 29.2 6.0 9.3 6.2
2017E 445.0 54.3 30.3 6.1 9.1 3.0
2018E 445.4 61.3 36.3 7.4 7.5 N/A

Forward P/E just 7.5

[bend1pa] 17/1/2018 14:02

Have to laugh at what I read on here. LWB have a bad year and some people immediately assume 'break-up' or 'bid'. Duh!

[cc2014] 17/1/2018 11:44

Hi Baner,

Do you have a position atm or are you waiting for things to become clearer? Thanks

[baner] 17/1/2018 10:26

Likely to see ”change” soon: new directors in charge and/or partial break up of the group. Valuation uncertain though - could be 90p, could be 40p. If they sell one of the gems they will eliminate debt problem and work the rest out in an orderly manner.that should put floor level at 60p+. But the current BOD does not look suitable for that task and if action is not triggered soon, L&B may end up as a forced seller. Let´s hope not.

[cc2014] 17/1/2018 09:35

Curious. The share price has moved up this morning and the 89k trades so far are all sells.

I sense someone is collecting stock and that most of the buyers who bought at 53-54 are happy to hold on to them.

Even more curious is that no RNS has come through related to who sold all that stock down at 53 because they certainly aren't selling now.

[sirgainalot] 15/1/2018 15:54

rathkum12 Jan '18 - 19:52 - 1171 of 1172

Hypothetical question.

Now that Brett Simpson is moving over to Fenner, would there be a possibility however remote of Fenner running their eyes over LWB. Very little synergy though.


Personally cannot see this at all. Very different end markets and industry sectors. Fenner is resources, mining and specialist medical, industrial markets.
Low and Bonar is environmental, engineering, building products etc.

Why would Fenner want LWB? Especially when things are going so well...

[justiceforthemany] 15/1/2018 15:26

Yes certainly a possibility of them putting in a bid. One would think Sterling would be pushing for a sale.

[rathkum] 12/1/2018 19:52

Hypothetical question.

Now that Brett Simpson is moving over to Fenner, would there be a possibility however remote of Fenner running their eyes over LWB. Very little synergy though.

[bend1pa] 12/1/2018 13:47

Looks like a bottom has finally been reached with some small consistent buying coming in after the panic sell-off in December. I see a recovery back up to 70 before 2018 is out.