Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[mj19] 30/8/2012 15:17

who can go lower lonmin or kaz

[careful] 30/8/2012 13:13

looking interesting.
this may be worth a punt.

[pamjim12] 28/8/2012 11:28

Decided to get out at £ 6.395. Minimal profit. Good luck guys but I think there is more chance of a crash than a signigicant rise. Risk outweighs potential reward at present IMHO, Jim.

[hectorp] 28/8/2012 08:16

It does not seem the union situation will be resolved in the very short term.

[leedskier] 27/8/2012 20:54

My ELR (platinum miner) shares are being hammered in Canada on the back of all of this. Would not be so bad but the chart there was a ski slope even before any of this. But it has be known for a couple of years or so that there were labour troubles and strife in the Western mining sector.

[dusseldorf] 23/8/2012 11:31

Whilst the mine continues to lose $4-5m a day the price gains $40 - 50m a day. The only the reason the price is holding is positioning of shorts prior to announcement of rights issue..

Though I think the price will trend down, I don't see why the co. would need the $1bn figure floated, it should be much less than that?

[davius] 23/8/2012 10:17

Skanky one, this time I was in at 606 and out at 621. How are you doing?

That short must be romping away? 37p target I recall you mentioned?

Hope you have a good a day as I am :0)

No, seriously.

On a more relevant note, the mine issues are all over News 24 as I type, extended reporting, looking none too bright.

[typo56] 22/8/2012 10:09

Sorry Dusseldorf, I hadn't realised that by "a few days" you meant four weeks! I take your point that the situation appears to have degraded quite rapidly.

Hectorp, as I've suggested before, given the level stock on loan it would seem that there would be some significant financial interest in the unrest. One wonders!

[hectorp] 22/8/2012 10:06

Perhaps the crazy strikers leaders at least are not so daft, realising that Lonmin is in financial difficulty, try to push them into liquidation? Then the SA government would have to nationalise this valuable producing asset.
- No position myself .

[dusseldorf] 22/8/2012 09:26

typo56 - you ommited this bit from the statement a few days ago "In its third quarter production report published on July 26, 2012, Lonmin stated that net debt remains well within the limits and terms of its existing bank debt facilities. "

To me, them reposting a comment from 23 or so days ago saying they were 'well within' existing bank facilities and they are monitoring the 'additional pressure' constitues a significant understatement.

The mine is nowhere near normal production (by the fact only 1/5th drill operators had returned as of yesterday) and they need money to repay debt and cover this years now growing shortfall in revenues. It could take weeks before LMI is back up to full scale production let alone 'one-off' write downs e.g. for legal fees etc... increase in overheads for staff cost putting pressure on margins.

Still don't think until the level of financing required is made clear that you assess how bad the impact of all this.

[typo56] 22/8/2012 08:26

Dusseldorf, when did they last say they were "comfortably within" banking covenants? Surely not a few days ago?

On 16 Aug they said, "The Company continues to monitor the position closely regarding the additional pressure which the current disruption to production may put on its bank debt covenants when they are next tested on 30 September"

The possible rights issue was well flagged and, judging by the stock on loan data which has been over 40% for over a month, this hasn't come out of the blue.

[dusseldorf] 22/8/2012 08:12

Considering they just announced a complete turn around in statements from being comfortably within banking covenants a few days ago to now going to breach with as yet unknown financial writedown/loss due to strike action it's holding up well.

[pamjim12] 22/8/2012 07:40

s shorter filtered. In the twilight zone along with fellow a holes

[sanks] 22/8/2012 00:08

He has no choice now..looks set to get a clobbering tomorrow!
Level 4 target 37p
Hope i'm helping



Lonmin warns it may seek fresh capital
21/8/12
7:41pm

Lonmin has warned that it might need to raise fresh capital after the shutdown of its South African mine amid bloody clashes set it on course to breach its debt covenants.


Put lnk below in google, then first link:

[dusseldorf] 21/8/2012 16:40

pamjim12 - if you were concerned you could have exited at above 600p? or have you been carrying losses from higher up and want to hold?

[alchemy30] 21/8/2012 16:25

Cannot believe the strength of this, is SA the lead market ?

[sanks] 21/8/2012 16:25

Classic pump & dump

[sanks] 21/8/2012 16:24

£3 was a recent broker target WITHOUT the rights issue...Sheila tells me its more probably closer to £1.72...before it hits my 37p poodee poodaa target.

Hope this is helping

[pamjim12] 21/8/2012 16:23

That's me shafted again, Jim.

[dusseldorf] 21/8/2012 16:23

I suspect given south africa trading is closed there is a significant negative reaction to factor in stock traded there.

A rights issue for $1bn was discussed, what price would be of interest in current climate? £3?