Longboat Energy Share Discussion Threads

[darcon] 05/4/2024 12:01

There was an interesting webcast from ENQ. They're looking at expanding their Malaysian and SE Asian international operations, which they view positively. Their CFO is ex-Salamander. So are several of LBE's team and LBE also have a similar view on the growth potential in that geography...

UPL still talking about getting a PSC and their MCAP is valued at [more than] twice LBE's - go figure? LBE already hold a majority stake in a large multi-TCF prospective one and the news on its farm-out when it happens will be material (hopefully in a good way).

We're waiting on news about the increased production from the in-fill drilling on the recently acquired production acreage in Norway.

We're waiting on news on an accretive M&A deal...what deal(s) are they working on and with whom?

[ohisay] 27/3/2024 11:34

Indeed ..due soon .

[trader465] 27/3/2024 10:21

Annual financials are due anytime now, last year was reported on 21 March

[katsy] 27/3/2024 09:22

I thought we would get a production update sometime in Q1?

[ohisay] 17/3/2024 03:49

Yes I too thought what she said about possible funding solutions in SE Asia .."along the lines of the Norway deal".. ie Japex deal ? was interesting.

Which would be nice as they say.

[bomber13] 16/3/2024 10:20

Thanks Ohisay , two points struck home to me -
1) Given a generally tougher access to capital in the oil industry , the Japex deal really does put Longboat in the pound seats in Norway .
2) Might a similar type of deal be struck in SE Asia , as was hinted at ? Might this also mean Longboat keeps more of the upside to Block 2A ?

[ohisay] 15/3/2024 02:49

Interesting discussion on Norway from a couple of weeks ago.
Especially in the Q/A at the end.

Longboat is 17 mins in with an updated presentation .
lots to look forward to I think .

And interesting to see Kistos hinting its next deal will be in Norway.
Like Japex they clearly dont like the uncertainty over tax regimes in the UK.

[danmart2] 11/3/2024 18:49

Surprised we haven’t had news early March, as mentioned to Malcolm, I am going to give it until June then I’m out while I can break even.

I might even jump earlier, was told to expect news early March and the silence is troubling.

[zengas] 01/3/2024 13:54

Our small initial Statfjord Ost and Sygna acquisition came from Inpex.

Approx 300 boepd and with the new wells all on streanm this quarter should be circa 600 boepd.

Cost $12.75m or $8.20 per boe giving 1.55 mmboe 2P.

Effective date was 1/1/23

------------------------

We have $100m JAPEX financing available and the board has said they could double this to $200m with RBL. Imo it's not impossible for the LBE JV to do a 30 - 40 mmboe P2 asset purchase with a starting base of 10-14,000 boepd initial production which could climb by 20-25% in the following year for $140-$220m effective date price and a significant income stream including a short payback time from the effective date and the ability to utilise a full 5 year term and go again for more assets possibly within 24 months again .

By comparrison for $220m (and all this cash wasn't needed in view of the effective date also being 1/1/23).

Okea bought their 4 interests (not long after LBE )in Statford, Statford Ost, Statford Nord and Sygna for $220m giving 13-15,000 boepd, 41 mmboe 2P, 8mmboe 2C and upside of another 14 mmboe.

Production in 2024 this year estimated to be 16-20,000 boepd (though likely reduced by 10% this year.

This was transacted at an initial cost of $5.36 per boe 2P.

However this would expand to a profit share on bls sold between $75-$96 in 2023, $64 - $85 in 2024 and $53 - $72/b in 2025 where Equinor get 90% of the profit in those ranges after tax and effectively increasing the 2P per barrel cost.

==============================

From Okea - Reference

Acquisition of 28% WI in PL037 from Equinor, comprising 23.93123% WI in Statfjord Unit, 28% WI in Statfjord Nord, 14% WI in Statfjord Øst Unit and 15.4% WI in Sygna Unit.

Effective date 1 January 2023

Initial fixed consideration of USD 220 million including tax balances of approximately NOK 300 million

Net 2P reserves of 41 mmboe and net 2C resources of 8 mmboe. Additional upside volume potential estimated to net 14 mmboe,

Adds production in 2023 of 13,000 – 15,000 boepd and expected to grow to 16,000 – 20,000 boepd in 2024.

In addition to the fixed consideration, the agreement contains a contingent consideration structure based on profit sharing on crude oil volumes sold at a realised price of

75–96 USD/bbl in 2023,

64–85 USD/bbl in 2024, and

53–72 USD/bbl in 2025, as well as on dry gas volumes sold at a realised price of 170-341 p/th in 2023, 125–248 p/th in 2024, and 37–75 p/th in 2025.

The profit sharing within these limits is 90% after tax to Equinor and 10% to OKEA

[sogoesit] 29/2/2024 11:08

"... turn a profit"?

Early stage Resources companies tend to be Asset Value plays first (NAV) and only turn to Earnings plays once production generates profits. Since management intend this company to be "Full Cycle" E&P it's going to get a bit mixed as to what metrics, and how, to value the company. Asset by asset value or production profit generation?
There are also points, right now I think, where Asset Values are discounted to zero until they are proven from "first hydrocarbons". But, if they re-invest profits into new capital projects it gets even murkier.

I guess, when you say "turn a profit" you are looking at production stage with relatively substantial free cash flow (i.e. no/little internal capital re-investment or asset holdings farmed-down to carries pre-capital investment)?

It will be interesting to see how they manage capital allocation as we(I) don't have a clue right now; does anyone?

[danmart2] 28/2/2024 18:26

But until management prove they can turn a profit I am holding off buying any more

[zengas] 28/2/2024 12:27

Nothing to do with leaks imo but the fact of the assets it has added as well as the super deal with Japex in Norway and that investors are waking up to. It is and was very oversold plus the low available free float which i highlighted.

The M/cap at 25p is £14m m/cap and is a producer on it's existing assets which will soon have paid for itself as well as expecting to double production on those.

It has $100m of available Japex funding for acquisitions in Norway. Use some of that for Norwegian production acquisitions (expected) and will further transform the company.

It has also underestimated play opening discoveries in Norway with major partners.

It has a world class exploration block off Sarawak with multiple large prospects.

The block has 6,000 km2 3D seismic which would cost a fortune to replicate and at least $20m - or more than the current m/cap.

Kertang is a world class 1.5 billion boe recoverable estimate (9 TCF) drill ready prospect DHIs, gas cloud, significant methane measurements.

Two smaller adjacent prospects about half the size each may add 6 TCF to this so imo a target potential of 15 TCF.

Those 3 are covered by 2900 km2 3D.

Farming down from 52.5% to 15-20 % could yield $ 1billion of value.

57m now or expanded to 100m shares at £4 = £400m/$500m

With still further structures.

Also intending to pick up producing assets in that region seperate to Norway.

By comparrison - Upland (UPL) in the same Malaysian region, no production, financial backing, no 3D and unknown stake in a PSC block not even awarded yet, no recoverable estimates and nothing else of value on 1.2 billion shares and todays share price of 3.3p (recently 4 and 5p) = £40m m/cap and nothing else to underpin an entry price.

Fair starting value for LBE would and should be 40p which is only £22.5m and on the above looking for north of 100p from Norway in growth (ie barely £60m) and a potential future target as above of value on a success case on Kertang detailed above.

[sogoesit] 28/2/2024 12:20

Well, if it is... Zengas needs to post more... ;-)) (for science you understand)!

It's not a good idea, in my view, to think about "leaks" in the oil industry... like BP's in the GoM!!

[danmart2] 28/2/2024 12:18

No news, leaky ship?

[katsy] 28/2/2024 10:46

Is this all off the back of ZENGAS post. Anyway still has a very very low market cap.

[ripvanwinkle3] 28/2/2024 10:31

Will it be news of Norway or Malaysia first?

[trader465] 28/2/2024 10:27

A leak of what?

[jailbird] 28/2/2024 10:21

Def a leak

[danmart2] 27/2/2024 09:41

ZENGAS,
Thanks for the info

[zengas] 26/2/2024 14:21

Okea AS went ahead and completed their acquisition from Equinor in the Statfjord Unit as well as Statfjord Ost, Nord and Sygna.

'The Statfjord Area comprises the Statfjord Unit, Statfjord Øst Unit, Statfjord Nord and Sygna Unit. The Statfjord Unit development covers the Statfjord A, B and C concrete gravity-based platforms. The other fields are subsea developments tied back to the main field platforms.

Statfjord Area is one of the largest fields on the NCS in terms of initial oil in place which was in excess of 6 billion barrels. Statfjord A was put on production in 1979, followed by Statfjord B in 1982 and Statfjord C in 1985. The field is operated by Equinor and the Field Life extension (FLX) unit was established in 2020 with an ambition to deliver 200% increase in remaining reserves, 25% cost reduction and 50% CO2 reduction in the Statfjord Area by 2030. The FLX unit focuses on safe operations, improving recovery from the field as well as reducing costs and CO2 emissions and has a strong track record of deliveries in recent years.'

As LBE partners Equinor, VAR, DNO etc most of the existing discoveries made are close to existing facilities and some of those at the lower end of the threshold may yet come on to the development stage or swap in the future, but that is where all these companies have a major focus similar to the details in the Equinor transcript.

[zengas] 26/2/2024 14:15

Equinor Transcript 7/2/24 Capital Markets day.


Kjetil Hove Equinor ASA - EVP of Exploration & Production Norway

" In addition to the large sanctioned project portfolio, we have an even larger number of non-sanctioned projects. We have more than 30 projects that we are maturing towards investment decisions in the coming years. The projects are in an early maturation phase, but we expect an average breakeven of the portfolio of around $35 per barrel and a payback time of around 1.5 years. For many of the new subsea tieback fields, we are looking into new ways of working to reduce the maturation and execution time with 50% and the cost level of at least 30%.

This will reduce the breakeven from these fields with 30% compared to a more standard subsea development. And this will be done through new technologies such as the Cap-X subsea wells and by taking out portfolio synergies. These projects will give us around 350,000 barrels in production after 2030

In addition to the large sanctioned and non-sanctioned project portfolio, we are working hard to increase the recovery factor from our fields. Historically, we have been, since sanctioning, been able to increase the average recovery factor from around 30% to around 50% from our oil fields. And there is still a large remaining potential in our fields, and we plan to deliver 50 to 70 increased recovery wells annually in this decade.

Many of these wells are using new technologies such as retrofit multilateral wells, multi-stage fracking and advanced completion solutions, reducing the cost and increasing the production. And these are highly profitable barrels with a breakeven of around $20 per barrel and a payback time less than a year.

We're also planning for around 300 interventions annually to increase production from our existing wells. And in addition, for many of our late life assets, we are planning to sanction low-pressure projects to reduce the reservoir pressure and thereby increasing the recovery from our fields. This increased recovery effort will give us an annual production of around 150,000 towards 2035

Our exploration strategy is that around 80% of the exploration wells will be drilled close to the infrastructure in known exploration plays. This is normally low-risk exploration with high probability of success. And new discoveries can be put on stream quickly since they will require limited new infrastructure.

The remaining 20% of the exploration wells will be drilled in new plays, still quite close to our infrastructure. These are higher potential wells but with somewhat higher risk than the pure infrastructure-led exploration targets. These wells can open new plays also in known areas such as the Kveikje, Heisenberg and Norma discoveries during the last years. Discoveries that you may not have heard about, but you should not underestimate them because there are many of them, and these could open new plays with large potential on the NCS.

The key driver for our view on the potential on the Norwegian continental shelf is the investments that we have made in new exploration seismic the last 5 years. This is seismic with fit-for-purpose technologies that reveals potential that we did not see on our legacy seismic. "

Hege Skryseth Equinor ASA - EVP of Technology, Digital & Innovation

"Good afternoon, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here. We are now rescanning our core areas on the NCS, all over again for remaining resources. A very good example is the Troll area where we have 500 million barrels proven with a significant upside potential. This equals to a full year of NCS production. We identify opportunities that were not visible to us before. And this we do due to: first, over the past 2 years, we have invested $200 million in new high-quality exploration seismic. With technologies like Ocean bottom and Topseis, both representing a step change in image quality. And this is on top of the 70 petabytes, which is a huge number of legacy seismic and well data that we already have.

Second, to significantly increase insight and speed, we have developed AI-based technologies using deep learning algorithms. These recognize complex patterns in pictures, sound waves and other data sets. What used to take weeks, now take hours.

Third, by combining this with the unique confidence that we have on the NCS, we see that mature areas are still very prospective. We are targeting all core areas of the NCS, such as Sleipner and Johan Castberg. For these 2 alone, we have identified 37 high-quality leads and prospects."

[katsy] 26/2/2024 12:22

Did they get that tax return from the Norwegian government? They were a little coy about that question a few months back.

[someuwin] 26/2/2024 12:18

All buys so far today.

[bumpa33] 23/2/2024 08:24

No offer at 20 this morning, well bid at 19.65 100k