Longboat Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ripvanwinkle3] 06/6/2024 11:22

Yes well we know all the Directors participated in the original £1 float price, and again in 2021 big style at 75p. So you would expect them to do all they can to avoid dilution.

Assuming A.Bruce is out, or nearly out, then this should hopefully be the bottom..

[bumpa33] 06/6/2024 10:59

If they do raise, you’d hope they be smart about it and get the share price up first. There’s time enough to do that for sure…


but fwiw I too think they can get by without going down that route…

[ripvanwinkle3] 06/6/2024 10:51

Well if they are able to turn this around without diluting, then this current share price is gonna look like one hell of a bargain.

I'm betting on them being able to do so, and so decided to buy more this morning.

The recent downbeat RNS seemed more about signalling to all the need for a change in direction, because all the info in it was actually in the Directors report that had been released a month earlier.

[bumpa33] 06/6/2024 09:32

think one has to ask whether £3.5m mkt cap represents value here or not, taking into account the positives of Malaysia and the - short term at least - not so positives of Norway. Add into the equation that Bruce has been selling down, prior to news, and that he can only have another million or so to go, should he go to zero. Current form for 250k is 6.055 bid, 7.2 offered and Stifel have backed off. I think there’s value in Norway still, even though I’m not a fan - it’s always been about Malaysia for me so if they can divest some or all of Norway and get some cash in, I’d be very happy.

[jnbrw] 06/6/2024 09:16

True, Norway has not been a ringing success for shareholders but should Lbe give it up just as the oil/ income is finally starting to flow? After this last work over on the remaining wells the cash revenue to lbe would be substantial ( ballpark anywhere between £7.5 to £12m/ 15m ?? or more pa - dependant upon if they exceed 1000bopd eventually)Ironic if just as the Norway venture starts to produce serious ongoing revenue Lbe give it away because of a short term working cashflow situation because of the work over. Why not renegotiate payback. Some of the cash is coming back in November through the millions refunded every year through the EFF.

[ohisay] 06/6/2024 08:48

LBE have probably got £2m cash in the bank at the moment ..If Japex are equable just a matter now of assessing Norway assets and liabilities to determine what goes into a LBE Asia pot in the next few months .
Thats my take anyway.

[ohisay] 06/6/2024 08:43

That the CFO (Jonatan Cooper ex Faroe) was asked to leave by August suggests a clean break to me.
Japex have already got Helge ..likely Hilde will follow with half a dozen Norwegian subsea experts from Longboat.I cant believe Japex wont want to continue in Norway .

The JV vehicle is almost an oven ready Norway takeover entity as Boris might say .

[ripvanwinkle3] 06/6/2024 08:20

Interesting thoughts guys.
The one niggle is the prospect of the JV actually being profitable by the end of this year, with the Stratford wells coming on line.
Might it be better to sell their discoveries, which would then give them the money to keep their interest in the JV, but with the main future focus on SE Asia rather Norway?
Or should they just exit Norway altogether?
Either way - the company appears to have options and cards to play. Things are possibly not as dire as the share price would suggest.

[ohisay] 06/6/2024 07:37

RIPV they could exit Norway while treating the Lotus drill like Velocette .ie set up some parameters for an additional payment to LBE subject to the size of the find .

Not unusual ..

[cashandcard] 06/6/2024 07:35

ripvanwinkle,True. Norway has been a failure for shareholders. They need to monetise, reduce exposure and go after SE Asia strategy.Trying to grow a smallcap oil firm in NS is just not worth it these days, the rewards are limited and risks too great. It was only ever 'transformational' for HH.Cash

[hamid1970] 06/6/2024 07:28

Yes, if we ditch Norway, we should realise some capital for Asia. Feels like the share price has way overshot on the downside.

[ripvanwinkle3] 06/6/2024 07:17

So sounds like SE Asia is to become the main focus.

Are they looking to sell completely out of Norway? What about the upcoming drill? What about the 100M acquisition facility they have been shouting about as transformational?

One thing to bear in mind though - everything they have done in Norway in 5 years has only made the share price go lower. Incredible achievement

[darcon] 06/6/2024 05:26

Their former colleague at Salamander, Jonathan Copus, was recently appointed to the board at Enquest. Enquest also have operations in Malaysia.

[ohisay] 06/6/2024 04:04

Salamander Energy as was ..floated 2006 sold for $500m 2015.
Employed 300 people.

Aside from Menzies as CEO note the youthful Nick Ingrassia back in the day !

[zengas] 05/6/2024 16:52

A much smaller team and Geraldine Murphys appointment is really interesting imo being a senior advisor at 'Perella Weinbergs' energy division 'tph'. It will be good to have someone of that calibre to call on/source equity/deal making/re-structuring.

IIs will or may have wanted this in support imo and a new CEO making decisive decisions from his appointment should be a positive.

Still hopeful of not seeing any II TR1s (famous last words) and would be a show of confidence other than that of A Bruce sales, being a notifiable holder.

Unlikely for GM to be coming to a company that won't be sticking around given it's material potential with a farmout in Block 2A. Also the CPR will be being paid for and likely to be available within the next few months - possibly by end August imo. With her already sounded out and proposed i'm sure she's had an idea/insight on the Norway strategy which is probably already under consideration and way forward for the CEO to consider.

[zengas] 05/6/2024 16:51

Yes vey much underwater Chutes, but have been here quite a few times in some over the years that have still given spectacular returns. Happy with my under 2% holding after the last buys but fully aware this is likely to be diluted.

Further cost cutting now made on those salaries etc

My post 1/5/24

2 directors are standing down and won't be replaced in the immediate future.Brent Cheshire £70k. Jorunn Saetre £50k. Nick Ingrassia was on 230k and moves up to CEO replacing Helge Hammer who was on £300k. The current Chairman of LBE is on 95k.

Helge leaves to become chairman of LBE/Japex - will there be a pay cut to a more modest Chairman salary or still remain on £300k ? Either way, Helges salary would now be 49% met by the Japex ownership portion of the JV so if he remains on £300k this would be a net saving to us of £147k.

Cost cutting of around £200k at least to perhaps £300k depending on what Helges salary at LBE/Japex is.

---------------------------

Latest RNS

Katherine Roe is now going = minus £60k

J Cooper CFO also going = minus £250k.

Graham Stewart standing down as N.Ex Chairman (taken up by James Menzies) but staying as a n.ex director. £75k down to £50k ?

Geraldine Murphy appointed/coming in as non exec likely £50k.

I make that about £500k - £600k net savings (haven't included pensions etc) at board level.

[pol123] 04/6/2024 22:58

LBE is currently priced as a company that had one turn of the drill bit and hit a duster. There have been some posters who clearly dont understand LBEs position their assets, value of the JV etc. IMO if LBEs mcap was £10m it would still be cheap. On top of that we have had a distressed seller. Im sure when we get a clear statement/AGM output we should see some normalisation of the share price
I would have thought any raise may be further downstream ie Asia JV / farm down or post CPR. But lets see

[chutes01] 04/6/2024 20:30

what is your holding here now zen ?
you will be well subsea at the moment

[zengas] 04/6/2024 19:51

Okea bought into the same set of assets so similar dd. Production is almost double to what it was when acquired so has went in the right direction. Yes there’s been cost over-runs but one would think that this isn’t going to be insurmountable and perhaps adds 9-12 months to the original payback time.

[chutes01] 04/6/2024 19:16

what a mess really, Statfjord tie back deal looks desperate, mature assets, ageing subsea infrastructure leading to delays
Cash management was wreckless, slight slippage on volumes and they end up near bankrupt
Need a degree of goodwill to get through this, visibility of sustained prod ramp up
Holders just need to hope they are not diluted to mars in the meantime, but no one is buying right now.
not looking good

[zengas] 04/6/2024 18:22

The JV - "Significant remaining value" (New CEOs words).
Had averaged 401 boepd Jan - April - 4 months.
Roughly at 544 boepd 4 weeks prior to May - 1 month.

Equinor working to have the 2 remaining wells online during Q2/Q3 - Presumably by the end of Sept.

Assuming we run from now to Sept at 540 boepd versus the CEOs guidance of 575-625 boepd for the full year - that would mean using the end of Sept as completion, then production must be expected to be around 850 - 1050 boepd from then using those 2 full year guidance figures.

Basically we're relying on Equinor the operator to have those wells completed by end Q3 to be close to producing 1,000 boepd which at gas/oil combined using $65/boe is almost $24m/yr less opex to the JV.

It would be a shame to give up that now in a sale to Japex or some other Norwegian focussed player to have to do the same thing all over again in S.E Asia in establishing production from scratch which we'd need money for anyway.

The above is a huge starting position to be in.

Our predicament is the shortfall in cash calls through to the next expected revenue jump and relying on Equinor to complete the work in the projected latest timescale. Obviously the 2 drilled wells need to produce as anticipated (surely they know this from logs etc).

Without giving up the producing assets, perhaps we could sell down our share of the discoveries in the JV to some of the other partners or operators (such as Kveikje/Equinor).

We need to know come the end of June if we are still to be involved in further Norwegian producing assets via Japex $100m funding and what is HHs exact role by being solely at the JV.

LBE have cut more costs by this current staff trimming on top of that earlier with those announced a month ago. They say they want to direct cash to "ensure its capital is being directed towards the areas with the greatest value-creation potential." (Maybe sell or cut down on the exploration assets within the JV and focus on production ? They don't have anything in Asia that is producing cash so raising money there for an asset would be no different in the short-medium term ?).

Haven't seen any other TR1 changes other than the 7m holding by A Bruce. They were bought in small tranches and have only been held for the best part of 1 year and now basically out. Coupled to the liquidity and low free float of the stock and absence of buyers to take up that slack our m/cap is £3.6m.

[jungmana] 04/6/2024 09:27

Well let's see what they come up with. Am sure most are waiting for that before risking anymore cash here.

[juliemara] 04/6/2024 09:24

Or rats jumping the sinking ship?!

[nigelpm] 04/6/2024 08:05

Show how seriously they are taking it but also that they have major cash issues coming. Very much a gamble here.