Lloyds Grp 9.25 Discussion Threads

[folderboy] 09/3/2018 09:01

Thanks - it's one heck of a fall on zero trades! Similar falls in Santander 10% and Standard Chartered 8% prefs - again no trades and again guess who holds a fair few.

[aspex] 09/3/2018 08:58

Yes I pulled out of 40000 each of LLPC LLPD.Do NOT panic as the buy back affects only the ordinary shares.The IRREDEMABLE Prefs are exactly that so their value is purely an interest play and like the Ords will be bought or sold on the market value.However eventually interest rates generally will rise. My decision was based on the fact that the next rate change is up so to get the yield to rise the price must fall but not yet. The price before today was very 'toppy' but not dangerously so.Best of luck anyway.

[folderboy] 09/3/2018 08:41

I bet you are pleased . . . those of us, very, heavily invested here are a little less sanguine - well panicking actually.

[aspex] 09/3/2018 08:39

Irrespective of the reason, I am very pleased to have liquidated last month. Lloyds cannot force the buy back so any drop is not caused by pressure from them.

[jonwig] 09/3/2018 08:30

It's definitely a knock-on from Aviva's threat. But it occurs to me that Lloyds would have redeemed these by now if they could find a way!

[folderboy] 09/3/2018 08:26

Is it just ADVFN? You know I think it may just be.

[folderboy] 09/3/2018 08:26

Is it just ADVFN? You know I think it may just be.

[folderboy] 09/3/2018 08:22

Can't get a price to sell (not that I want to!)

[nerja] 09/3/2018 08:21

Its get out of all the prefs time for safety, if one gets away with what Aviva are planning they all will, san sanb stab stac etc

[drsous] 09/3/2018 08:16

Aviva are going to buy back their preferreds

[tiswas] 09/3/2018 08:14

What's happening here?

[folderboy] 09/3/2018 08:13

I have very clearly missed something with these. Excuse my, extreme, ignorance but could someone explain the dive today. I assumed ex-div - will now look but down 13%+ !?

On zero trades.

[my retirement fund] 08/3/2018 11:48

Looking at results there comes a point in time that threshold is crossed and it may very easily be now. However in the teeth of a severe down turn mortgage and credit card defaults would rise significantly and the tables could easily turn again.

[chillpill] 08/3/2018 09:23

I've taken the view that the equity is now better value than the debt so bought into the higher future yields. Not for everyone but am prepared to take the additional risk.

[my retirement fund] 10/2/2018 08:24

If that proves correct interest rates are unlikely to have scope to rise very far at all.Personally I've felt all along we have moved into a world of ultra low interest rates on a permanent basis simply as a function of macro economics of maturing western economies as lower population growths and technologies reverse historic monetary trends, a la Japan.

[jonwig] 09/2/2018 08:58

Events in the past week look to have wrong-footed me on my view in post #904. Maybe, but the air needs to clear a bit. This is from AEP in today's Telegraph:

Mr Congdon, one of the few economists to have issued crystal clear warnings before the Lehman crisis based on monetary analysis, said the money supply is currently cooling across much of the world. “We are undoubtedly going to see a tapering of global growth in 2018 because of the actions already taken by central banks to reverse QE. I don’t expect a recession because central banks will have to change course once they see the numbers weakening,” he said.



That's more or less my opinion still.

[alphorn] 06/2/2018 08:56

Cash may be king but which currency?

[chillpill] 06/2/2018 08:55

Think I am going to let the dust settle a bit. Cash is king for the moment.

I believe the long term yield game but think we might have to think a bit differently.

I did but gold for the first time in many years last week-haven't touched it for years. Will see what happens there.

[aspex] 06/2/2018 08:49

I, too, now have a bucket full but in my case it will go out of UK to a high yielding industrial property REIT -tax paid yield of 5%+ with WALT 5 years plus.Time for a change.

[chillpill] 06/2/2018 07:22

Yes. I hadn't envisaged selling my basket of prefs but I feel we are at a turning point. US Treasury yields are going up and they will dictate the larger bond market.
The Chinese are cutting back their US treasury purchases at a time when issuance is going to go up. They had been the biggest buyers of treasuries and so who will be the buyers in a non QE world.

They are being very clever in the way they are exerting their control. Trump has the rhetoric on trade but the Chinese can exert control the US bond market.

Basically I expect spreads to blow out and some good opportunities to arise.


aspex4 Feb '18 - 08:35 - 903 of 906
0 0 0
So you have a bucket load of cash and no useful place to put it?

[aspex] 05/2/2018 21:19

Sold 40000 LLPC and 40000 LLPD which did not appear on advfn.

[aspex] 05/2/2018 07:39

Yes jonwig, I might just test the market with a few of my LLPC/D and see what gives?

[jonwig] 04/2/2018 08:54

@ chillpill - Personally I think long-term interest rates are unlikely to rise much above the growth rate of the economy any time soon and any inflation from a swift sterling decline is unlikely to lead to a tightening because of recession fears.

Again my own view is that a UK recession is more likely from a poor Brexit outcome, and at least Lloyds seems to have the capital buffers to weather that (assuming the latest stress tests are reliable). LLPx share prices could well fall from here, as I'm sure a lot of investors have the same view as yourself. But as aspex said just now, find a better place?

[aspex] 04/2/2018 08:35

So you have a bucket load of cash and no useful place to put it?