Live Share Discussion Threads

[gingernut1] 13/11/2019 14:05

Well jacNife, you will obviously think its lower given that you are so obviously have a short position on this share. If that’s what you think then why don’t you increase your short? Put your money where your mouth is. That’s the mouth of course that has knowingly misled people both about a placing coming for months and also about the forecast position for the year, not to mention the problem you have with maths on the rentals where you think that renting an entire touring set only attracts £70k a year 🤣
LVCG is in the best place its ever been over the last two years and is poised for massive further global expansion. They have the resources, the content and the partners to deliver that. Not only is the business growing massively, its clearly going to be a takeover target for a larger group.

[gingernut1] 13/11/2019 12:40

Well good luck to you mate, but you really have an unhealthy obsession with this share. You have knowingly and deliberate misled people, and if you think that chucking in a question mark at the end the sentence is going to help your short position you are sorely mistaken.

LVCG is going from strength to strength and as DC is hinting, is about to deliver some pretty awesome news fairly soon. As to the metrics, In 2018 they increased revenue by 127%. In 2019 They are well on track to increase it again by at least 23% and to also make a maiden profit.

Turnover £6.555m a 23% increase
Gross Profit £4.235m with a 64.6% gross margin
EBITDA £1.108m
Operating Profit £0.538m

[mister md] 13/11/2019 12:12

Paid-for brokers notes. Almost as worthless as those one-sided paid-for Proactive Investors interviews where no tough questions are ever asked ;)

[davr0s] 13/11/2019 12:07

Crikey I gave up listening to brokers many years ago - it's been shown that they have no statistical edge over tossing a coin so just noise as far as I'm concerned

[gingernut1] 13/11/2019 11:25

MisterMD, you are entitled to your opinion, but whatever that opinion is, it certainly isn’t humble. The broker’s note was pretty clear on their valuation made when the price was above 70p.

Valuation
Live Company represents an attractive investment opportunity in our view, given its IP generation, which has widespread appeal to both children and adults, attractive EBITDA margins and international growth prospects. The ability to generate high margin rental streams from its touring assets, with their short pay-back periods, complements the expanding portfolio of live events and shows. With both operating under the common BRICKLIVE brand, along with other complementary developments under the same BRICKLIVE umbrella, Live Company Group is building a strong brand equity. While this offers potential good returns to institutional (and private) investors, it could also prove attractive to a trade buyer, albeit more over the mediu m- term in our view when a track record of rising profitability becomes more established. It would be particularly attractive in our view to a larger company, whose strengths lie more in executional roll-out and value extraction rather than brand development.

Valuation conclusion
On the basis of our compco valuation analysis, we believe an appropriate valuation range on a one year view for Live Company is 73p – 89p. The lower end of this range is based on the average of the FY21E implied valuations, including the drag effect of the EV/sales metric. This underpins the shares and their future prospects on a similar relative valuation to the compco group, and suggests downside risk should be limited from their current trading level. The top end of our valuation range is pitched at the upper end of the FY21E valuations. We believe that newsflow on new business gains, with existing or new clients, will be viewed positively by the market, as it will increase investor confidence and reduce perceived risk relative to future earning s. This in turn could push the shares towards or indeed through the 100p level, reflecting the valuations implied by the application of the FY21E metrics of our selected high growth compco sub-group. Conversely, negative newsflow could have an adverse impact on sentiment and share price with downside risk below our valuation range.

[mister md] 13/11/2019 11:14

gingernut1 - I pity all the people who have bought shares in LVCG at upto 74p (the 12 month high), as the bidprice is now 36p (the 12 month low). Even the numbers you state as a fact they will make this year don't warrant a marketcap of 26 M IMHO

[gingernut1] 13/11/2019 11:10

Pity for you that people have been mainly buying then. That’s going to spoil your short mate, as will when the business deliver the news that they have been hinting at. But good luck to you jacNife, its a lonely old life trying to scare people into selling by posting false information on a public BB.

[gingernut1] 13/11/2019 09:37

The only person avoiding questions here is your mate. Your posting of false information and obsession with a share you are not invested in is reaching epic proportions. Time to give up your short mate and your 5 year old grudge. This company is on track to meet its numbers this year, make a maiden profit and its expanding at an incredible rate.

These are the numbers that they will meet for the year

Turnover £6.555m a 23% increase
Gross Profit £4.235m with a 64.6% gross margin
EBITDA £1.108m
Operating Profit £0.538m

[gingernut1] 13/11/2019 09:08

Mister MD, Why did you falsely claim that a fundraise was incoming, yet months after that the company seem to be doing just fine.

Why did you falsely claim that the new NED Mark Fairbairn didn’t pay for his substantial holding of shares in the company when its very clear that he bought a very substantial holding in the placing in Feb 19 to accelerate the zoo model build programme?

Why did you falsely claim that bricklive events only consist of static models when they don’t?

Why did you falsely claim that the cash was running out when the cash balance was actually increasing over the period?

Why haven’t you apologised to investors you misled by trying to ramp,them into Thomas Cook right before it went bust?

Why did you say I had made over 500 posts when that was clearly the total number of posts on the board.

Seriously mate, people can see you for what you are. I almost feel sorry for you.

[mister md] 13/11/2019 08:44

Dow Jones and Nasdaq hit record highs

LVCG hits ...er multi-year low, 38p on the bid

Still vastly overvalued at 28 M marketcap on tiny profits and cash at 0.1m, but don't worry, gingernut says "LVCG is only just getting started" and everything is OK !

[gingernut1] 09/11/2019 18:54

Latest interview with the Chairman is here. Worth listening to if you are an investor.

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/live-company-group-bahamas-petroleum-and-chris-bailey-on-marks-spencer-7853165

He explains that they have delivered the super series of events around the globe. Also expands on the deal with WSL in South Africa. Importantly that deal will allow them to increase utilisation in the traditional winter months (not that they are having trouble renting out models over the winter, as they have Pawpatrol and 2 x snowman and Snowdog tours as well as other festive models booked out , Brugers zoo in the Netherlands, Brickosaurs in Germany, bricklive in conjunction with Lego I’m Thailand, and stone zoo in Boston ).

For those that missed the detail, this is a Joint venture and moves away from just getting a licence fee to one where they sharing the profits. With every event attracting more visitors that expected that makes good business sense for LVCG and will lead to even greater revenue and profit in the future.

He also says in the interview that “Number of models will grow exponentially next year. Only 2 years old and have already reached the next level. Going to go even further in 2020. LVCG is only just getting started. “

He parted by saying that “I’m sure we will be speaking soon.” And when he says that he has always come back very soon with even more news.

From the RNS

“BRICKLIVE Joint Venture, South Africa
 
The Group is also pleased to announce that its wholly-owned subsidiary, BRICK LIVE International Limited ("BLI") has signed a joint venture agreement with WORLDSPORT (PTY) Limited ("WSL"), a company incorporated in South Africa, to create BRICKLIVE (South Africa) Limited (the "Joint Venture").  The Joint Venture will be owed 50.1% by the Company and 49.9% by WSL.
 
WSL is a leading event organiser based in South Africa, organising, managing and marketing Sporting and Lifestyle events.
 
Under the terms of the agreement, the Joint Venture will stage and promote BRICKLIVE Shows and identify customers for the BRICKLIVE corporate builds and customer sets in South Africa.  Pursuant to the agreement, BLI will provide the Joint Venture with content and WSL will promote and organise the shows and tours.  The Group expect the first BRICKLIVE Show to occur in Cape Town in the first half of 2020.”

[gingernut1] 09/11/2019 18:48

Oh dear mate, really showing yourself up now, as you haven’t got a scooby doo about what a bricklive event is all about. Doesn’t really matter as you are not invested anyway, although it is curious why you spend so much time on a bulletin board for a share you openly admit you are not involved with. You must literally have nothing better to do. I almost feel sorry for you if you weren’t trying to con people.

[mister md] 09/11/2019 18:27

I can highly reccommend the official Lego Discovery Centres though - they are great value for money and offer lots more than static models

[gingernut1] 09/11/2019 13:32

Lvcg has gone from strength to strength over the last 2 years and has reached the point of being able to host 6 simultaneous events around the globe. It’s signed partnership and IP deals with world class companies like nickelodeon. And it’s poised to hit its financial targets and make a maiden profit this year.

Turnover £6.555m a 23% increase
Gross Profit £4.235m with a 64.6% gross margin
EBITDA £1.108m
Operating Profit £0.538m

Beyond that, with over 850 models and 16 touring sets already built and paid for, the profit will keep layering up from here. Anyone listening to the Chairman on the last podcast will hear that they are going to increase exponentially next year.

[mister md] 09/11/2019 13:08

avoiding the questions and posting false information - very poor show, perhaps you are not a PR person at all but just a ramper who doesnt consider the bear case / warning flags here

[gingernut1] 09/11/2019 12:56

In case anyone is confused if you are invested here or not, no need to guess as you have already told them

“Mister MD - 30 Sep 2019 - 07:08:48 - 320 of 518 As of 24 September, the Group had GBP140,000 of available cash. yikes. fundraise coming? glad I never invested in this since parallel media fiasco”

Why would someone not invested spend so much of their time commenting? Its not like its for altruistic reasons is it, especially given your ramping of Thomas Cook Group right before it went into administration. Have you apologised to investors for ramping them in to Thomas cook, just before it went bust mate? Personally I’d be a little embarrassed about that, but I suppose from someone that’s prepared to mislead over the significant holding of the new NED perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised.

For someone not invested you are really working overtime. No short position you say either.

Open the curtains in your bedroom mate, you will find that it’s daylight outside

[mister md] 09/11/2019 12:46

Still avoiding all the questions ...

[gingernut1] 09/11/2019 12:31

Coming from someone that thinks the post count is the number of posts made by someone I’ll give that all the credibility it deserves. LVCG is clearly on track to meet its targets this year which means they are generating more revenue, more profit and more cash.

Trading statement date 5 July 19 “At the halfway point of the year we continue to make encouraging progress with sales and have successfully secured 67% of our revenues for 2019 thus far.  Enquiries remain strong for the Group's touring assets and it is my belief that we will exceed our current target of 60 events for 2019, with 52 events already confirmed and several more in the pipeline.” “The Group is pleased to announce that, as at 30 June 2019, the Group is trading in line with market expectations and the Group has already secured multi-year contracts with a value of £4.4 million for 2019”

So at that stage with 52 events in the bag on track to meet revenue target of £6.555m a 23% increase on the year.

H1 results dated 30 Sep 19 “Revenue of £4.8m for 2019 already secured from shows and builds, with a further £0.4m of fixed fee contracts for 2019 currently out for near term signature. This excludes the majority of revenues from the Group's flagship NEC show and other upcoming BRICKLIVE shows for 2019 where the Group receives a share of the profits”

That again confirms, with circa 58 events in the bag, that the target for this year of £6.555 million is well on track.

Number of events has increased now at 70 with more planned (if you search properly you can see another 2 events to be added to the target)

In 2018 they increased revenue by 127%. In 2019 They are well on track to increase it again by at least 23%.

Turnover £6.555m a 23% increase
Gross Profit £4.235m with a 64.6% gross margin
EBITDA £1.108m
Operating Profit £0.538m

If you are banking on a placing as you think the business is not on track to meet its financial targets for the year you are going to be bitterly disappointed. Time to,close your short mate before you get burnt.

[mister md] 09/11/2019 10:41

You only need to look at the trades going through over last few weeks to see whats going on - lots of 10000 share sells and a few 25000 blocks too - so who is selling ? And why are discussions taking so long - is the 65p implied value of the shares to be issued to the vendors no longer acceptable now the price is back at 40p and there are potential cash concerns ?

[gingernut1] 08/11/2019 20:49

“And then shareholders would have to hope the shares are not directly sold on the market to get the cash out.”

Of course being “well researched” you will know that the vendors got £2.167m in cash from the sale of brightbricks last year plus they have 8,461,536 shares (consideration shares) from the sale. And you want people to believe that as soon as the vendors get the deferred consideration shares they will immediately put them for sale on the market 🤣 Dream on jacNife.

[gingernut1] 08/11/2019 20:13

Lol, nice try again. The terms of the settlement of the deferred consideration last year were clear. “5 Oct 2018 deferred consideration of £0.833m until 6 Oct 2019. Payable in cash or shares @65p or a combination of both at the discretion of the vendors.” A year later the company goes out of its way to make the point that this will be settled in shares, indeed they made that point twice. Given that the vendors are also members of the Board it’s pretty clear that’s what they have agreed to, otherwise they company would either have mentioned they were considering shares or cash (or a combination)or remained silent on the point.