Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[bigalan3] 18/8/2021 10:20

Looks like £1.00 might be the floor - I hope.
My daughter works for a Company in Australia and they are involved using
LIT in a class action.

[davr0s] 11/8/2021 17:07

We are not exactly lighting any fires atm here. Still I shall stick to the plan and keep holding

[robsy2] 11/8/2021 10:14

Thanks 74 tom. Excellent summary of the value on offer here.

[74tom] 11/8/2021 09:53

Excellent to see another case win, and one that provides further evidence that an average future MOIC of 2.5x is achievable.

As per the recent market update, there was A$105m of direct balance sheet capital committed capital at 30/06, plus a further A$76m of third party funds committed.

In recent presentations, a forward looking MOIC of between 2 and 2.5 has been used to illustrate how shareholder capital could grow over the next few years. I believe this is the best way to estimate the current value of LCM's pending cases.

Addressing the direct investment total of A$105m first, this translates into £55.7m

Applying a MOIC of 2 x gives these cases a valuation of £111.4m, whilst 2.5x gives £139.4m. I'm ignoring NPV as if cases settle in an average of 27 months, the impact of the time value of money is fairly minimal.

The average of these two figures aligns almost exactly to the current market cap of £120m...

Of course, this ignores the A$76m of third party funds committed to date.

Bottom line : today's market cap only just about covers the implied value of directly invested cases. There is no value in the price for third party fund 1 or the pending much larger second fund.

Key catalyst's to share price appreciation have to be;

- Launch of second fund
- Restart of dividend payments (even if only for 0.25p ish)
- Move of PM to London, although this looks unlikely to happen any time soon with Oz still struggling with Covid lockdowns

[johnwig] 11/8/2021 08:42

See today's pleasing announcement. Link above in header under 'News' below chart.

[bigalan3] 11/8/2021 08:37

When are the results tt?

[kpo115] 11/8/2021 08:33

Today's upturn is welcome. What does it signify? Miton overhang dissipated? Will it last?

[trotterstrading] 11/8/2021 08:14

Roll on results.. rerate just a matter of time IMO

[someuwin] 11/8/2021 07:09

11 August 2021

Litigation Capital Management Limited

("LCM" or the "Company")

Successful judgment in Australian investment

Litigation Capital Management Limited (AIM:LIT), an alternative asset manager specialising in dispute financing solutions internationally , announces a successful outcome in a court proceeding in Australia, for which LCM has provided funding, where judgment has been delivered wholly in favour of the plaintiffs (funded parties). This investment forms part of LCM's Direct Investment Portfolio and is 100% funded from balance sheet.

LCM has provided funding for this dispute of approximately AUD$1.6M to date. If the judgment debt is paid promptly, LCM will generate revenue of approximately AUD$5.6M and profit of approximately AUD$4.0M from this investment. This judgment has been obtained 22 months following the commencement of funding, which is earlier than the 10-year average time to completion of 27 months.

In the event that the judgment debt is not paid promptly, and LCM continues to invest in this claim (through the enforcement of the judgment and/ or the funding of any appeal), LCM is likely to generate revenue in excess of this amount as the pricing structure of the financing arrangement is a multiple of invested capital increasing over time.

In the event that the defendant appeals, LCM is confident that the judgment entered in favour of the funded party is likely to be retained.

Patrick Moloney, Chief Executive Officer of LCM , comments: "Obtaining this early judgment is an excellent example of a high performing investment for LCM but also of the use of disputes finance by a sophisticated party to manage both capital and risk. We expect this investment to yield higher than our average 10-year returns profile both in terms of IRR and ROIC when finalised."

[davr0s] 06/8/2021 23:44

Well it could hit any price as it's a share. Let me guess a random number now...

[davr0s] 04/8/2021 19:05

Well any price is of course possible. Believe I posted when people were getting carried away with high predictions a while ago that it probably marked the top short term. And now i say the same - Low ball predictions probably mark the short term bottom. Anyhow i shall be adding on any signs of strength

[king suarez] 30/7/2021 23:32

Great find SUW, interesting..

[someuwin] 30/7/2021 20:14

Prairie Mining update today. Focussing mainly on their arbitration claims against Poland. Funded by LIT.

Nothing new that I can see. But it did make me think; LIT wouldn't have taken on this case if they didn't think there was a very high chance of getting a positive outcome.

The claim is for £806 million. LSE:PDZ is currently valued at £30m.

Therefore PDZ could be a good buy at current price, if you accept the risk and the potential long wait. Just thinking out loud.

[blueball] 29/7/2021 17:54

Bull kumo break-out today.