Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[bigalan3] 29/7/2021 15:46

Same again. Buys outnumber sells and no real change.
Are Milton forced to sell? Comments welcome.

[74tom] 28/7/2021 17:49

Yep, it's got to be Miton selling their remaining few million shares, it seems like we've reached a level where a buyer is happy to take between 50-200k shares each day which will clear the order eventually.

[bigalan3] 28/7/2021 15:11

Almost everyday buys outweigh sells and the price never moves. Big sell order out there?

[someuwin] 26/7/2021 16:22

Progress on another LIT case...

Compensation claim of AU$127 million lodged against Tanzania

Jul 26, 2021

[74tom] 26/7/2021 16:13

Interesting so see we have a definite buyer on L2, they’ve taken 70k shares at 1.09 since 4pm via AT trades. Each times they take out the offer the seller reloads, however it’s really positive to see them getting taken out. Suspect we snap back to the 120’s once they are clear.

[blueball] 23/7/2021 17:35

50k buy at close.

[74tom] 23/7/2021 17:26

Yes I went looking for updated info on the Miton Value Opportunities fund 3 / The Diverse Income Trust, where LIT is held, however they haven't posted their accounts to 30th May yet. At of Feb 11th the Diverse Income trust held 3,456,573 shares which means that the value opportunities fund had to hold the remainder (2,045,077) to total 5,501,650.

Both of these amounts are large enough to put the share price in reverse if being sold at best in the market, as opposed to another II. It's pleasing to see 600k volume today and there share price retaining the 1.08 support, hopefully not too much further to go until they are gone forever.

[johnwig] 23/7/2021 15:12

I just like literary tropes. I wasn't really bemoaning Miton's actions. In fact it should give all investors a bit of relief if it is Miton's sales that have caused the recent falls because Miton's holdings are finite! I can see no just impediment to shareholders being informed of the quantum when it is appropriate.

[greenknight1] 23/7/2021 14:08

Well, you call Miton a foe but on the contrary I think they have provided us PIs with an exceptional opportunity to build significant positions in a stock that would otherwise be trading much much higher.

[johnwig] 23/7/2021 11:08

Here's the best I can do, as of March 3 2021, officially:

Premier Miton Group plc 5,501,650 4.76%

So, it could well be Miton selling more. I can't help feeling, though, that someone must have more recent info but I don't know how to get it. Surely one of our brilliant posters here can ferret it out.

It really does matter!

P.S. I love the phrase "perennial foe". It certainly feels like that.

[muffmitz] 23/7/2021 10:30

As ever thank you for your contribution 74tom. My recollection is that there was good information that Miton owned considerably less than 5.5 million shares but trustworthy figures seem inordinately difficult to gather. The present situation, though, does seem remarkably similar to the Miton overhang clearance of a few months ago. Either way it's been a strange incomprehensible way to behave...

One thing for certain though is that the dodgy 'jonwig's' current figure of 14 million+ on his troll thread is shamefully wrong and clearly meant to deceive.

[74tom] 23/7/2021 09:54

I've come to the conclusion that the recent share price weakness has to be down to Miton selling the remainder of their 5.5m shares. I thought they had sold out completely last December, but the holding notification never arrived.

The pattern is exactly the same as last summer, a PI driven rise followed by a relentless AT attack. There have been countless buys in the 110-120 region over the past week which have been met by an iceburg sell which just keeps reloading.

We are so close to being clear of what seems to be a perennial foe.

[robsy2] 22/7/2021 16:49

Exactly. My understanding is that they are using the funds they have and once used they plan to get a second tranche and will feed that into the cases as they need it.

[greenknight1] 22/7/2021 12:31

The recent slides show the fund is to be 86% committed (pending final due diligence). This only leaves $21m - not a lot. Work is ongoing for the capital raising of the new $300m fund which is likely being timed to close as the final 21m is committed for the first fund. Seems like a slick transition to me.

[brileyloucan] 22/7/2021 11:10

Hi James,

I agree this is a key concern. I believe the expectation is that the final £35m will be committed reasonably quickly and a lot is going through at the moment. There is also probably a requirement to have a balance of exposure types so the two funds could be taking commitments in parallel.

I reached out directly to Patrick and asked (very politely) about the delay to committing the first fund , what was the reason for it and when we would expect some further movement. I fully recognised that they may be limited on what they could say.

Unfortunately I did not get a response or even acknowledgement. This was the first black mark on the company for me which is my largest position and have held for about a year.

BL

[jamessmith23] 22/7/2021 09:49

It comes from the latest update the the company provided stating they had 115 of the 150 committed, so it's not that 150 has been committed but they have only drawn 115 to fund cases, they fund hasn't been fully committed.Does anyone know why this is the case? My concern is why they are funding a second fund when they haven't had the demand to fully fund the first. They're expanding their operations which if it goes well will be big for the business, but they need the capital to be committed to do this so am looking for an explanation, without the capital the returns everyone is quoting may not materialise, at least in the time lines forecast.

[adamb1978] 21/7/2021 21:14

James

I havnet seen where you've taken your figures from but there's a difference between 'committed' and 'funded'. If you commit to a fund then you will receive capital calls at various intervals when the fund needs the capital. So its possible that its fully committed, but the cases haven't arisen as quickly as expected and therefore it hasnt been 'funded' as much as expected by now

Adam

[jamessmith23] 21/7/2021 15:40

One thing I'm a bit confused on is why the first fund hasn't been fully funded yet, I thought initially it was aiming to be 150m committed by end of Q1 this year? Has there been delays in commitments and is the 115 including the capital committed by LIT which I believe was 25%, so about 35m. Also have they started committing to the 2nd fund before being fully committed on the first?Have no issue on the lower conversion rate at all, would rather maintain higher returns on the invested capital in cases by being picky then over allocate.

[someuwin] 21/7/2021 09:01

The main takeaway from this week's presentation is this chart...



Assets Under Management up 243% (from £138m to £336m) in just two years.

...Imagine where we'll be in another couple of years!

[nigelmoat] 20/7/2021 14:19

Added today at 110p to double up on my holding here. Despite anticipating general turbulence in the markets ahead I think the present pull back is a good buying opportunity. This niche class of business has exceedingly good prospects and this is a well managed and respected business in its field. All imo/dyor.

[hpcg] 19/7/2021 09:12

A lot of price moves are summer doldrums, and with the heat this week I would suspect the marginal buyer is otherwise distracted. Some changes to global economic conditions with growth slowing in some parts of the world, which is inevitable.

[adamb1978] 19/7/2021 08:57

Agree with the long-term focus 74tom. A lot of small caps seem to have drifted lower over the last couple months - the adage about selling in may seems to have been very appropriate in small-cap land this year. As a result, I'm not so bothered about fluctuations at the moment and just taking content with companies which I own trading well, and telling myself that by end of year, for example, things should have normalised

[bigalan3] 19/7/2021 08:57

Agree with atom. Quality will win. Sadly I bought £5000 on Friday but the rest doing well.

[74tom] 19/7/2021 08:50

I've got no idea how anyone could claim this was a profit warning, however some are obsessed with trying to find negatives. Sure, they had a lower conversion rate, but this shows they retained their discipline - this is much better for the long term investment case than taking on cases for the sake of short term numbers.

The share price has been walked lower over the last couple of weeks, for reasons unknown. They dropped it down from the 130's on about £100k of volume, then when Simon Thompson upgraded his TP and significant volume arrived we closed flat. It's since drifted lower, which again doesn't make any sense.

I think an II has been selling in the background, could be a residual Miton holding or R&M taking more profits. Whatever, I'm confident that the old Benjamin Graham classic 'short term the market is a voting machine, long term it's a weighing machine' will play out here, as it has started to over the last 7 months.

[adamb1978] 19/7/2021 08:20

Market update RNS reads well enough? I saw someone on twit ter claim it was a veiled profit's warning..! The only -ve in there was the slower level of commitments...however for the type of business which this is and way its valued, I dont see that as overly important

Price off 5p though...