Litigation Capital Manag... Share Discussion Threads

[l2b] 20/12/2023 10:37

Agree someuwin PAT looks good, excellent RvR opportunity - for both PAT and LCM. 
I will definitely own PAT at some point.
Tho I expect it to take the usual 3-4 years to play out (likely more given the $$$ being fought over) so not rushing in yet.

For now I hold two of LCMs (IDA & GRX) and one non-LCM one (though side connection). 

LCM is a core holding (the others are small punts).

[someuwin] 20/12/2023 10:13

Cheers L2b. Getting very interesting.

On another issue, Allenby have put out a new note on Panthera. Suggests successful claim could be worth $127m to LIT...

"Assuming US$750m gross settlement net proceeds after commission/expenses could be US$623m: On a net recovery basis, a claim for damages needs to take account of LCM’s commission and expenses. If we assume gross damages of US$750m or US$125/oz Au given resources of 6m oz, the net amount would be US$623m (£509m) based on commission of 15% (US$113m) and expenses of US$14m. In addition to a judgment for damages, we believe that the Republic of India would be subject to an interest penalty from the date of the original treaty transgression. It should be noted that both the gross and net estimate of damages is highly speculative at this stage."

[boozey] 20/12/2023 07:26

Thanks L2B. I wonder what is going on there then....

[l2b] 20/12/2023 07:01

IDA goes into TH (until Friday)

ICSID confirms that "December 19, 2023 - The ad hoc Committee issues a decision on the continuation of the stay of enforcement of the award."

We wait so not definitive, but would this happen if Tanzania had ticked all the boxes....? 

cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02756355-6A1187352

[boozey] 19/12/2023 11:25

Does anyone have any news further to the 19th deadline on Tanzania?

[boozey] 18/12/2023 07:31

Thanks L2B

[maddox] 18/12/2023 07:18

'UK’s top mobile firms face £3.3bn class action lawsuit over ‘loyalty penalties’'

LIT is funding this case.

hxxps://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/07/uk-ee-vodafone-three-o2-face-3bn-class-action-lawsuit-over-loyalty-penalties?utm_source=litigationfinanceinsider.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=lcm-funds-3-3bn-class-action-against-mobile-giants

[l2b] 17/12/2023 21:57

IDA update - Tanzania given until Tues 19th to provide correct undertaking. 

Essentially Tanzania tried to pull a fast one with their attempt at an undertaking. 
"The Committee advised Tanzania on 14 December 2023 that this undertaking did not comply with the Committee’s Decision on the Stay of Enforcement of the Award dated 31 October 2023"

"If Tanzania fails to provide an undertaking complying with the Committee’s Stay Decision by 19 December 2023, and has not lodged appropriate financial security as stipulated, the ad hoc Committee will immediately declare the stay terminated."

We could have an early Christmas present in a couple of days...

cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02755010-6A1186862

[boozey] 15/12/2023 17:41

@L2B -any news on the annulment update ref Tanzania please?

[nigelmoat] 15/12/2023 11:18

With the current share buy back of A$10 million what are the likely number of shares likely to be purchased if the present lowly price of sub £1 continues? Around 5million? Going to take a while at the current daily numbers.

[dadbod] 13/12/2023 07:41

I think you are right

[someuwin] 13/12/2023 07:39

The missing Class Action is probably the Australian PFAS case that they won. See 4 Sept RNS.

[dadbod] 13/12/2023 07:21

One of the class actions has disappeared from the website. Used to be 5 there, now 4. Last time that happened it ended up being a loss unless I'm wrong.

[robsy2] 12/12/2023 09:44

Thanks L2B,looks interesting

[l2b] 12/12/2023 08:53

IDA reminder - big annulment update by Friday.

Tanzania must provide an undertaking that if it loses annulment hearing it will essentially pay up asap. 
Otherwise annulment case thrown out and enforcement legally begins. 
IDA already identifying targets.

As an aside to LCM, IDA trading at A$36m despite their payout looking at around ~A$100m (where mgt said the award (less $15-20m) will be paid to SH). And they are post result where annulment rarely succeeds. 
I prefer buying litigants towards the pre/post-hearing stage, not early on as there's inevitable CRs (e.g. PAT recent CR at ~60% discount to recent high) plus opportunity cost factor. 

Another litigant case - GreenX taking its time but hopefully we'll hear early in new year....

On other cases - hearings in the new year, so hopefully pick up in news.

[robsy2] 08/12/2023 08:35

Thanks someuwin
I saw something about on the news this morning and wondered if we might be involved.
I like how LCM goes after these corporates and holds them to task. There is a corporate Robin Hood aspect to it that appeals to me.

[someuwin] 08/12/2023 08:12

LIT funding new "£3bn-plus" claim against Vodafone, EE, Three and O2...


"UK class-action targets mobile phone operators with £3.3bn damages claim

Vodafone, EE, Three and O2 are accused of levying ‘loyalty penalties’ on customers

The biggest UK mobile phone operators could face total damages of £3.3bn following class-action claims that they allegedly charged 5mn existing customers “loyalty penalties” over a 16-year period.

Claimant lawyers say they filed court documents at the Competition Appeals Tribunal against Vodafone, EE, Three UK and O2 last week. The claims accuse the phone companies of overcharging on as many as 28.2mn contracts by not reducing the amount customers had to pay after their minimum terms expired, despite them having effectively paid off their mobile devices.

The claim consists of individual lawsuits against each company, with damages sought of up to £1.4bn from Vodafone, up to £1.1bn from EE, up to £507mn from Three, and up to £256mn from O2.

Claimant lawyers at Charles Lyndon, a law firm, estimate that up to 4.8mn people could be affected. If the case is successful, someone who held a contract with one of the mobile operators could receive up to £1,823.

The claims are on an “opt-out” basis, which means all qualifying customers will be automatically included in the claim unless they make a choice not to join.

The alleged overcharging dates back to at least 2007 and runs up to the present day.

Justin Gutmann, a former head of research and insight at the charity Citizens Advice, who is bringing the claim said: “For too long these mobile phone companies have been using their dominance to rip off their customers by charging loyalty penalties.”

He added the practice was “exploitative” and that millions of people had been “taken advantage of”.

The legal action follows a 2018 “super-complaint” — a complaint made to regulators by designated consumer bodies, which can lead to enforcement action — to the UK Competition and Markets Authority from Citizens Advice about loyalty penalties across the mobile market and other sectors.

The CMA said at the time that the practice was “unfair and must be stopped”. In an update in 2020, the regulator said “significant progress” had been made in each market.

Communications regulator Ofcom in 2019 announced new protections for mobile customers including requirements that consumers had to be told the cost of buying handsets and airtime separately as well as a number of voluntary industry commitments.

Vodafone said it did not “yet have sufficient detail for our legal team to assess”.

BT’s EE said in a statement: “We strongly disagree with the speculative claim being brought against us,” adding that it had a “robust process” for dealing with end-of-contract notifications.

O2 — now merged with Virgin Media and jointly owned by Liberty Global and Telefónica — said there has been “no contact” with its legal team on this claim but that the company launched contracts a decade ago that “automatically and fully reduce customers’ bills once they’ve paid off their handset”.

CK Hutchison’s Three declined to comment.

The litigation against the telecoms groups is being funded by Litigation Capital Management."

[maddox] 04/12/2023 13:21

Hi Makinbuks,

They are reducing the Debt Facility as well as paying a dividend and share buy-back.

So, LIT appear to have sufficient cash in-hand, or in-view with forthcoming case conclusions, to fund new cases, pay-down debt, buy back shares and pay a dividend! The significance of this appears to be lost in an argument about should they put their cash here or there - when they can do the lot (to various degrees).

Having suffered the withholding tax - I'm now much preferring buy-backs over dividends as a means of returning value to shareholders.

IMHO LIT is transforming into the cash machine that an IRR of c.75% suggests it should be. It'll take a while for Mr Market to appreciate this as the share price fall back signifies - investors seeking share price confirmation - will be holding off buying in. Once Mr Market realises that a p/e of 6.4 is ridiculous this will re-rate.

[makinbuks] 29/11/2023 10:03

Followed by another 7000 yesterday, this really is "buyback" at its absolute worst as a tool. Would have been much better to reduce expensive debt as discussed on this board a few months back

[robsy2] 28/11/2023 13:15

I was thinking the same! They are a cautious bunch.

[makinbuks] 28/11/2023 11:51

Agreed citywolf but 3,900 shares, ....really?

[citywolf1] 28/11/2023 11:49

Buyback up and running again. Looks like the break has worked in its favour as share price has drifted down a bit since it was announced. Let's hope we get some more case outcomes before HY

[hunter154] 21/11/2023 10:32

From Jan to July, we had huge news flow. Its all gone quiet now.

[boozey] 16/11/2023 11:50

L2B always love your posts! Thank you.