Longboat Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cashandcard] 07/6/2024 14:14

arcteryxIn short - yes. Been a disaster for shareholders and still needs sorting out.Cash

[arcteryx] 07/6/2024 13:21

Perhaps UPLs share price is why Longboat is changing course then.
Everything they've ever done in Norway has made the share price go South!

[katsy] 07/6/2024 12:47

I noticed that UPL now has a market cap of £45m compared with £4.1m here.

[nigelpm] 07/6/2024 10:57

Exactly that arc.

[arcteryx] 07/6/2024 09:54

nigelpm - are you saying you think there will be plenty of existing holders happy to sell out down here because they think the company is finished, and if they don't salvage something now then they are likely to lose everything?

[divmad] 07/6/2024 09:12

I think peeps have forgotten that lbe has a cash shortfall from operations that needs to be plugged, fast.

[nigelpm] 07/6/2024 08:39

I doubt it was just Alastair Bruce selling and indeed selling coming back in again this morning. It's high risk - there will be plenty of holders happy to get out and salvage something.

[arcteryx] 07/6/2024 08:16

What could the company be worth if Kertang was a successful drill, given the size of that prospect, which would then also derisk some of similar prospects within Block 2A? Anyone done any calcs?

[jungmana] 07/6/2024 07:39

Alistair Bruce selling imo caused most of the damage here. This should be 20p+( GBP12 million market cap) with the short term financial issues in Norway jv and without that hanging over our head, 50p+ (GBP30 million) imo would be realistic. see UPL at GBP40 million right now as a comparison.
The market cap at GBP 4 million right now is extremely low .

[ripvanwinkle3] 07/6/2024 07:10

I believe (and hope) they would be looking to sell some or all of Norwegian assets before resorting to dilution. The management were large buyers at 75p and £1. share price surely currently too low to be anything other than a last resort? Would wipe out all existing IIs..

[jailbird] 07/6/2024 03:12

Is this the worst case sceanrio?

from Katsy's post

"So let's assume they go to market and raise the funds they need. How much money do they need to pay back Japex? $17m!!! So assuming they need $20m"

It seems Market is def pricing in a sub 10p dilution at the moment

I am not sure how much will be needed, but I do not see it being less than 200m dilution which will take it nearer the £20m mkt cap

Over the last few months, it has hovered between £10-$13m mkt cap, looks to me market was pricing in a cash raise this much longer than we think

[cashandcard] 06/6/2024 22:16

Zengas #1033Excellent and well explained post.I am very much in agreement with your reasoning and hope they can draw a line behind the current saga driven by the NS side of the business.I've been around since the days of Edinburgh oil and gas and Paladin Resources. The NS may still have some hidden riches - but they are becoming fewer and smaller every year. Sometimes, so difficult it's like trying to get blood out of a stone. In basin terms, the good scalable stuff is almost entirely done for most of the NS. Combine that with the ideological nonesense that permeates European states, affecting oil and gas fiscal policy - it makes it difficult for investment and the reasons to look and deploy capital elsewhere just keep stacking up.Having taken all my money out of NS players over the last few years, the two areas that I have increasingly pursued are Southern Hemisphere Atlantic margin plays (Namibia/South-Africa/South America) and also Southeast Asia. The former being a prolific area of breakthrough oil basins whilst the latter has potential for oil/gas/condensates - both blue-sky exploration and production via small field development opportunities.Most importantly, they have friendly and welcoming attitude to oil and gas industry without the hassle we have become accustomed to here UK/Europe.When I first looked at this year's ago, it was very unexciting because of the Norway strategy - that has since crippled it, but maybe this needed to run it's course. It now looks ready to roll with the changes to team and renewed focus. I think, on the balance of probabilities, LBEs capital focussed in on Southeast Asia can drive much greater growth regardless of production. The opportunity to partner and scale is there and I think the team can make it happen.Cash

[zengas] 06/6/2024 15:30

I agree JNBRW

If HH is the chairman of the JV only, does he have any say anymore what the board now decide ?
Also is he truly working towards getting us further assets in Norway or seeking those now solely on behalf of Japex ? Did he really leave to become a defacto manager of Japexs Norwegian operations is something i've wondered about - so like to know more come the end of the month.

Perhaps we could retain the production assets for now ?. The only spanner in the works/worry is if somehow Equinor again slip on the completion timescale say by another quarter and perhaps the budget is a bit higher and squeezes us more to put more cash up front/cash shortfall coming in ??

The assets we have as 50% of the JV -
Our net share of the production assets at the higher production level must be closer to $7.5m. Also is there a rebate this year end from the govt for capex or is it exploration expenditure only. If so this would add some more cash.

What value to the rest of the Norwegian assets -

The JV farmed down Lotus a few months back from 30-15% to Concedo in exchange for us being fully carried. At 15% this was worth on a discovery 4-6.6 mmboe to Concedo so what might they or others possibly pay for our discovered resources ? I'd like to know what that was worth in terms of drilling costs because surely the other 7.5% net is worth something to us if we sold this off pre drill = $500k+ ?.

5% Net share of Kveikye = 1.5 - 3 mmboe discovered resources (Equinor maybe ???) + a further drilling target . $1.5m - $3m ?

10% Net share of Oswig discovery/flow tested estimated by OMV to be 1-4 mmboe. Oswig South still to be drilled. $1- $4m ?

10% Velocette, low end discovery worth 130k - 1.1 mmboe net - basically valueless for now if ever ?

Could the following be farmed down or valued at $500k -$1m each - or sold to Japex lump sum who could later farm them down at their discretion/timing for more value for themselves ?.

10% Magnolia analogous to Kveikje to drill (net 3.9 - 5.7 mmboe estimate),
12.5% Jasmine to drill analogous to Kveikje 1.25 - 3.75 mmboe net potential.
12.5% Sjokreps to drill 2.5 - 37.5 mmboe net potential.

"Longboat strongly believes that the joint venture has significant remaining value and is currently exploring all options available to fully realise that value for shareholders".

[chutes01] 06/6/2024 14:32

Norway is still a decent spot, hold onto prod gains if they can
It’s fantastic compared to UKCS stuff
Kitchen sink and Bruce was pushed out

[jnbrw] 06/6/2024 14:25

All true Zen , except that Norway production is moving towards 800/1000 bopd after the work is completed i.e. anywhere between £10m to £15 m revenue soon and growing. Be a shame to let that go - and the 200m facility just as the party is getting started.

[jungmana] 06/6/2024 14:18

Just been catching up on the posts here and thanks all for your inputs.
Bought in this week at about 8p average and happy with that.
Am here for Malaysia as that's where the big money is imo.

[zengas] 06/6/2024 13:50

Something to think about and i think it is already dawning on some that this was way oversold basically on one major shareholder selling (held for 1 year) and the low free float/liquidity/absent buyers. I said yesterday i was heartened to see no TR1s from the IIs in the whole affair since flagged up over a month ago in the results. Personally i think this is completely oversold and there is more to be excited about than negative.

So what value here on and if -

Adding 'significant' drilled/discovered hydrocarbon resources at ZERO cost. Close to existing infrastructure. What if there's 10-20-50 mmboe resource here across a DRO cluster ?

How big is SIGNIFICANT for a company of this size ?

If you have a proven resource that can be converted to 2P on a dev plan (and a lot faster to production than waiting on the likes of Kviekje in Norway), then S.E Asia is more cost effective.

The addition of Geraldine Murphy described as an industry legend at this time is significant. Also Pierre Eliet.

Has anyone considered the valuation metrics in having a proven resource much greater than Norway and Norway sold down at breakeven and a small raise here on the back of early development ?

In the a/res investor presentation just over a month ago James Menzies at 21:30 into the video said it was NOT JUST an exploration story re Malasyia and said Petronas were keen on getting the smaller discoveries worked up and the government - 'they offer some of these to you for development at no cost if there is a sensible, credible development plan'. He said back then they had applied for offshore Sarawak.

Fast forward a month "should the partnership be successful, the DROs are anticipated to add significant hydrocarbon resources capable of near-term development to Longboat's growing Asian portfolio". NEAR TERM versus sitting on a 50% share of 1,000 boepd and 50% of 1.55 mmboe 2P that is eaten up supporting just the Norwegian team who are now scaled down at board level. The recent update was specific in saying "ensure its capital is directed towards the areas with the greatest value potential"

Worth noting that in may of these clusters (DROs) there is proven oil/gas and very close to existing infrastructure.

As an example The Bambazon DRO cluster (off Sabah) had a number of fields and wells that tested at 700-1000 bopd and Tigan in the same cluster at 1200 - 2,000 bopd with 50- 150 c/ft GOR or 1,000 boe gas min plus the oil.

"Should the partnership be successful, the DROs (MORE THAN ONE ?) are anticipated to add significant hydrocarbon resources capable of near-term development to Longboat's growing Asian portfolio."

My feeling is Petronas will be keen to support Longboat with additional opportunities like this given LBE have already attracted major interest to the giant 2A block.

[arcteryx] 06/6/2024 13:44

So was the RNS the new CEOs way of spelling out the problems and thereby justifying the radical shake up?
Like he was drawing a line in the sand, or a drawing a line under the rubbish CEO that had gone before.

[chutes01] 06/6/2024 13:42

Bruce got mugged

[bumpa33] 06/6/2024 13:35

The Malaysian assets are hardly hypothetical, unless you think they just made them up out of thin air.

This was a kitchen sink RNS - when it’s actually looking less kitchen sink by the minute - exacerbated by (an already active) seller who got taken out on a stretcher by a ruthless mm, or two.

[divmad] 06/6/2024 13:35

Is this the Malcy bounce?

[hamid1970] 06/6/2024 13:00

danmart - talk about stating the obvious - see you H1 2025

[danmart2] 06/6/2024 12:03

Malaysian asset at this stage is all hypothetical

Until they drill in Malaysia I will remain on the sidelines.

Happy to pay a higher share price if/when they confirm Malaysian drilling is under way.

[cashandcard] 06/6/2024 11:23

JNBRW,That is what I am alluding to. Monetise it the best way possible, by giving up some of the stake to deal with the current problems &/or an agreement on future revenues in the event of a sell of part or all of the stake.I'm not a big fan of these smaller, bottom of the barrel fields in NS, that can be problematic as we can see. Here for one reason only, Malaysian asset. I would hope they can really push on with that, without the distraction of Norway assets. Perhaps widen the Southeast Asian portfolio.Cash