PS
Buffet's preferred metric is return on equity
ABDN n/a - presume it is negative, unless anyone wishes to explain?
MNG same
AV.same
PHNX same
LGEN same
anyone looking for income atm should consider BME
lots of the sites miss the specials out of the calculations. my total return has been fantastic, but i did buy at the right times. p/b is high at 4.9, but RoE is 50% |
If you look at the long term chart and assume buying is for the dividend, then macro-managing seems more appropriate.
ie. Just only ever buy after significant drops and don’t bother about losing out on some sort of permanent significant rise because the chances of that happening in a large business are small. |
we are reeds in the wind.
if I had sold at 265 I would be £14k better off
just can't be f'd to micro manage |
Bond auction massively oversubscribed. Good news. |
 that is total equity/market cap i think
i prefer book value when comparing, simply because 1 gives me an easy ballmark, <1 is better from a valuation perspective. the companies do similar, but not the same things, so everything has to be taken in balance. from a shareholder perspective, total return is what i want, because at some point i might want to cash in and blow it on a maserati. over the last 5 years when i compared these, LGEN had the best return, but it does depend on the dates you calculate from. also share price is as much determined by future prospects and sentiment, rather than current value. ABDN is cheap because its future direction is doubted, because a lot of future expectations are based on them losing large accounts and not getting enough new business. monty would of course say ii is worth at least £2bn and terribly undervalued. on what he bases that stat, i would be eager to hear!
book value of the above
ABDN 0.55
MNG 1.38
AV. 1.51
PHNX 2.28
LGEN 3.63
so the comparisons remain similar. there are plenty of companies out there with a p/b less than 1
if buying a company, i think the purchasers look at enterprise value metrics, but my brain can't be bothered. |
Schhhhhhh lol... big buys and down :-0 |
Finally I am into profit on this one, after Friday's add at 241. Divvies are extra of course. It seems like a great many interest rate sensitive stocks are going up at the moment. Not 100% sure that this benefits LGEN though because it needs higher yields to meet its liabilities. But lower rates have other benefits, for example people will pay higher prices for stocks especially high yielders in search of return. Also lower rates will reduce the DCF discount rate on LGENs future cash flows which will increase their value. Finally there may be a shift from cash and bonds into stocks like LGEN, and they will have lower costs of borrowing, investment and debt with rates lower. On balance I think the expected cuts will help LGEN but looking at it with an amateur eye its a very complicated business. |
PS: how much japanese money might make it home from us over the next 12 months? |
net:
the midpoint value of the ftse in 2000 was 6462. i make that a 35% gain (divvies excluded) over 25 years
ftse 1/1/25 to current is up around 6% (my portfolio doing much better and a lot is in ftse stocks)
i think i have just spotted the bus |
SF: So do people waiting for buses in the rain. |
Presumably it could be extrapolated from this statement?
"The Transaction will increase the Group's Solvency II ratio by approximately 22% at completion, and by approximately 7% post the proposed buyback." |
It hasn't been quantified what is being spent on the buyback. I do agree an increase in the dividend would be more beneficial but we will know more in 30 days and in the meantime sit back and keep the pressure on |
Taking a 5 percent stake and the company says 40 percent of the market cap redistributed in one way or another over 3 years, they can't lose on that investment. I need to find more money so I can make 100 percent in 7 years. Sit and wait and use it for retirement income. Simples, better than second guessing when to get in and out all the time, unless that is your day job of course. |
AS usual its a pity they are spending our money on a buy back. %5 increase in divi instead of the 2 would have done much more for the share price. |
Guilty of what ?
They have done us all a favour as sparked a bit of interest we could well be stuck in the 215/230 range .
All too often I have been long and wrong nice to be onside in such a duff market.
Onwards and upwards. |
That is what I think - they got it to 5% on the day - hence the RNS saying "hope to get 5%" - they were no quite there when the RNS came out but were by close of play ... |
About 1% (5.9M) of the total shares (5.9B) in issue, were traded on Friday. |
I suspect they also bought on the day of the RNS...
As price was still up a bit even though lots of small investors sold. |
Seems they guilty, bought all before rns ... not very British :-0 |
I would not be that surprised to see Meiji Yasuda add to their holding as they have already picked-up a nice dividend payable in April. |
As thought they bought last week |
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