Learning Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[drsamwaa] 22/1/2019 15:29

Wow 8% drop on good news??! WTF?!

[phillis] 22/1/2019 15:27

I wasn't disagreeing with you
Just my view that the current valuation is based on what the Co MIGHT purchase in the future
Silly really

[jeffian] 22/1/2019 14:18

Yes, but it's hard to put a value on that as each acquisition substantially alters the shares in issue. The company which is producing revenues of £200m in 2021 will not be the company we see today.

The comment I was responding to was why there hadn't been a more positive response to a good trading update and my suggestion was, because it is already in the price. As the BBC might say "other explanations are available".

[phillis] 22/1/2019 14:09

the share price is based on the ability of the Company to make successful impactful acquisitions and not on current portfolio fundamentals

[jeffian] 22/1/2019 13:25

#992,

anley,
I'm less worried about the macro-economic situation - there's not much we can do about that - but I do like to keep an eye on fundamentals. By paying an above-average PER, one is paying today for tomorrow's growth which is fine as long as they deliver year in year out, but the minute performance tails off towards more normalised rates of growth, so will the PER which means that the share price can stand still or decline even though profits are growing. Capita was a case in point; when outsourcing was all the rage and profits were growing 50%+ year on year, they were valued at 150x earnings at one point. As the long-term market average is about 15x PER, it was inevitable that the share price would fall back, however much profits grew. I'm not saying LTG are there, but it's certainly a feature to keep an eye on, particularly as the true figures are obfuscated by all this "Adjusted" and "Underlying" terminology. As for EBITDA, that just means "gross profit before we take off any overheads"!

[microscope] 22/1/2019 13:16

Bit of 'buy on the rumour...' I suspect. Amazing company this, just keeps on delivering, so much so the market no longer gets excited by 'significantly ahead'. :)

Wish all my shares were this brilliant! Fantastic management imho and clear the growth path remains fully in situ. Wonder if we might get some US buying this afternoon?

[anley] 22/1/2019 12:32

JEFFIAN..................and excellent post and I agree with you.

Surpose there is another down leg of the Index - a rolling bear market - then the current price would be under strain...............we shall see so I am back to my 80p buying level.

[mfhmfh] 22/1/2019 12:08

Peel Hunt today reiterates buy rating and 180p target price.

[mfhmfh] 22/1/2019 12:04

'... net debt of the Group at 31 December 2018 is significantly better than the Board's expectations...'

Buy rating reiterated in today's IC

[jeffian] 22/1/2019 11:32

"Not the same reaction as the last update..."

Maybe because there's a lot in the price already?

I preface these remarks by saying that I've done very well on this share, having bought the majority of my holding at around 42p. I added more a couple of months ago at +/-100p where I thought (wrongly!) it had stabilised after the fallback from 160. I remain a long-term holder and supporter.

Is it possible to get a handle on current value based on fundamentals? In a company growing this fast by substantial acquisitions, it is incredibly hard to assess what true underlying earnings are because of the substantial distortions caused by 'exceptional' acquisition costs and the great increase in shares in issue. I've trawled back over the past couple of years' accounts and tried to see the wood among the trees.

EBITDA, Schmeditda, 'Adjusted' operating profits - never mind all that, what is going on? LTG do report an Operating Profit figure "before acquisition-related deferred consideration and earn-outs". This has been in the range of 7.3-10.85% of revenues. Let's say a mid point of 9%. Around 72% of that has dropped down to net profit after interest and tax etc. On guided 2018 revenues of £94m, that would produce an Operating Profit of £8.5m and a net profit of £6.12m which is eps around 1p/share at current shares in issue (vs. reported 0.37p/share last year). They're targeting revenues of £200m by end 2021 (Op profit of £18m and net profit £13m using same formulae) which would be eps around 2p/share.......assuming they don't issue a shedload more shares (which is an unlikely assumption given that they continue to pursue a policy of growth-by-acquisition).

So that's a current PER of 100x which may fall to 50x after 2021 (but not if more shares issued). As I say, there's quite a lot in the price already.

[zipstuck] 22/1/2019 11:16

Hmm They made the margin improvements. Organic growth is not that great so now dependent on acquisitions to create value. What PE do you put on that

[azure8269] 22/1/2019 11:02

As a holder,(not a shorter) :- This is up 51% in the last 15 trading days. It has to have time to draw breath. But DYOR and stay lucky.

[drsamwaa] 22/1/2019 09:35

Not the same reaction as the last update...

[xajorkith] 22/1/2019 07:57

Excellent update.

Profit & cash generation significantly ahead of expectations, improved margins and an increase in recurring revenue.

Would like to think this can push back through the key 100p level.

[ironstorm] 22/1/2019 07:53

Very happy to have bought in here yesterday looks like a well-timed decision for a change. Looks very cheap for such a growth story.

[azure8269] 18/1/2019 15:27

Some good YouTube interviews with CEO Johnathan Satchwell.

(In you tube search put Learning Technologies Group to find them) They obviously deal with historical but included the last update in September. Also their Mergers and acquisitions rational.


I don't attend AGM's but I like to see and hear management, particularly the CEO or Chairman of companies I invest in.

( after I lost £7k on GLOBO !)

Stay Lucky all Pi's

[toffeeman] 17/1/2019 20:50

Superadams - yes it does target 105

[azure8269] 17/1/2019 16:37

It may not all be shorters. I just topped up with 3648 based on most of last year when it held around the 115 to 128 mark from June to November, and the outlook from the half year, (on the 25 September) " Full year profit will be significantly ahead of the boards expectations)

I've rarely had an original idea, mostly what I think others do too

Sorry to sound like a ramper - DYOR - Stay lucky all Pi's

[old fool2] 17/1/2019 16:22

Shorters are closing?

[xajorkith] 17/1/2019 13:51

Good to see this moving higher again, ahead of an expected trading update next week.

Timed my inital buy very badly, but have significantly averaged down below 80p & continue to believe there are substantial long term gains to be made here.

[superadams] 17/1/2019 12:37

Does this qualify as an inverse head and shoulders ?

[tarrant777] 17/1/2019 11:42

Ah 90p!Next stop 100p

[azure8269] 17/1/2019 11:26

Tarrant 777.
"Was hoping to see the share price starting with a nine by the close of business today"

Looks like your first wish may come true today. Lets hope your second and third come true.

To all PI's - Stay lucky

[tarrant777] 11/1/2019 13:27

Qualify-"disappointed" relative to a "high" in excess of 160p, and broker's targets closer to 200p.