Canaccord modelling £11 million in 2025 free cash after dividends and £13 million in 2026. They actually model for £5m of acquisitions in both of those years giving net cash flow of £6m and £8m FWIW.
Net debt ex-leases is 57 / 49 and £35 million next 3 years. Very manageable but yes leaves relatively little except for modest acquisitions.
That's fine.
PE of 8...is very mean.
Expect a bounce tomorrow if the markets hold. |
They need all the recent acquisitions to bed in and pay down some debt before even thinking about more acquisitions. I think the rising debt is definitely a factor behind the latest sell off. They shouldn't really be paying such a high dividend, but can't really cut as this would really hit the share price - so yes a bit boxed in. |
My tuppence worth on why it's heading down;
Debt is on an ever rising trend - net debt up to just under £80m at 31/10.
Over half of their FCF is going on the dividend + interest expenses.
I think the dividend needs to be right sized to suit their strategy, they are trying to be a buy & build income stock in a high rate environment, I don't think they can be both.
They appear boxed in re. future acquisitions and based on the equity performance since the last raise I'm not convinced there will be much appetite for further £30m+ equity raises.
Cut the divi, get the debt paid down, go from there IMO. |
thanks Dr B. agree booker supply much larger units.
so it could be the biggest fish in the pond.
how are all these buyouts being financed?
ever since my disaster with conviviality retail, i am always wary of mid-market co's expanding too quickly. but right now does look good value. share price history shows that it can move quickly when it wants to. from memory there were quite a few tips / news articles before the rapid rise up to 400p last year. |
Not sure if it's anything company specific - a lot of sharp fallers today especially retailers. CARD was down about 5% last time I looked and Greggs had also tanked. KITW results were fairly unexciting, but not too much wrong with them and they look a bargain at these levels. |
It has been trending downwards since September but when I read the Results I thought it would recover some of that lost ground. I've not sussed why it's down today. |
Underlying EPS was 30p. I think the adjustments look fine - mainly relate to acquisition costs and amortisation - happy to use the adjusted figure. |
There aren't any big players - mostly smaller regional suppliers, which suits their buy and build model. Booker has been cited before, but they work with much larger stores and don't really compete in the same space. |
it is trying to take over others to consolidate the market, rather than wanting to be taken over. i have to say, i don't know who else are the big players in this market.
happy with the results other than the huge share options granted. ceo was only promoted from coo a year or so ago.
chart not looking too good though, 250p seems to be on the radar, and below that there is quite a drop.
think mostly the drop is the usual uk mid-cap apathy at play. the wider uk market does seem to be changing though, which offers hope. |
Would say achieving 32p EPS next year from 22p will be tough |
Its does and its going to be cheaper again after today. Presumably there is something that I have missed thats causing the drop. I would say an issue is with the TU they issued a statement "inline with management expectations" which is something I hate with a passion. Why not just state the actual numbers, rather than leaving it open to what those expectations are? I know you can sometimes find the figures via brokers etc, but thats not always easy (or free) to do
I've added a few here today. I sold some at 380 previously, so I am buying those back, this has been a share that I have generally timed well, a rare exception for me |
Will this get taken over if the share price goes down much more? It looks cheap. |
Big prints ameriprise still selling? |
Not a great start |
No. Ridiculous. On a forward PE of just over 8.. |
Looks decent to me. All in line as promised in the TU and the outlook has no surprises. Can’t see any reason for the share price to be at a year low. |
Results look decent to me. |
Good luck all tomorrow |
Ho just Ameriprise selling down. 295 for 2 days and then down. Very light volumes. |
52 week low hit just before results. Know weak markets but bizarre |
Ameriprise reducing |
Interesting, large buys and bid/ask drops. A seller as well as a buyer? |
Taken some this morning. Some big buys, in anticipation of positive results on the 4th? |
You're right the pubs reported strong trading over Christmas, which I suppose is a decent proxy for the sort of business Kitwave do. Supermarkets also quite solid. Not currently holding but tempted to buy a few. |
Inline in Nov and since then restaurants and pubs and supermarkets have mostly reported strong trade so can’t see where the warning’s going to come from. |
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