Some momentum at last |
Here the presentation. |
Clearly some didn't like |
Pretty good Investor Meet. Always great when they engage their PIs
They are not going to try and take on the big national platers (Booker/Nisa/Spar). They reckon the addressable market is about 40% of the total.
What are the risks this year? Customer base is monitored closely - seems to be "flat at worse, probably slightly growing". Cautiously optimistic, no sign of customer failing or downturn.
Fuel is hedged
Depot energy is also hedged, fixed for this year
Share price assessment- has a good relationship with IIs, good support for creed. Have looked at other pools (Eu/US) - poor liquidity in UK. Taking advice on whether its worth going to a main listing (probably not, as gain isn't great and a considerable % is IHT). Certainly not soon.
Probably no buyback, priorities investing in business and bringing down gearing. Maybe when time is right.
As a large holding of mine it was worth the watch. |
Ex div but still tumbling FFS |
Ex-Dividend Date tomorrow 7.45p |
And the share price drops |
Another share purchase |
Creed cost 60-70m - and the others about 22m so I'm not sure where they got the "total expense of 2.2m" from..
I noticed that share prophets have it down an an "avoid" (only seen the title I don't subscribe) but one of the comments says the analyst article forgot to account for the shares from the placing leading to the drop in EPS.
Same in the above article - the share count went from 70m to 80m instantly but only included one months figures from Creed - so the EPS are diluted by about 12%. I really like EPS as a measure of performance but in this case its not so easy to make a comparison to last year, though this years figures should be enhanced using the same metric. |
Doesn't seem to be any conclusion to this article - gives an overview of the business but can't tell if the author rates it a buy or a sell? Seems to be very mildly positive but certainly doesn't make a convincing case. |
06 March 2025
Kitwave Group plc
("Kitwave", the "Group" or the "Company")
Director/PDMR Shareholding
Kitwave Group plc (AIM: KITW), the delivered wholesale business, has been notified that Ben Maxted, Chief Executive Officer of the Company, and certain PCAs/PDMRs purchased a total of 35,186 Ordinary Shares on 05 March 2025. |
A cluster of director share buys.. |
Mkts bouncing but the frustration continues here |
Canaccord modelling £11 million in 2025 free cash after dividends and £13 million in 2026. They actually model for £5m of acquisitions in both of those years giving net cash flow of £6m and £8m FWIW.
Net debt ex-leases is 57 / 49 and £35 million next 3 years. Very manageable but yes leaves relatively little except for modest acquisitions.
That's fine.
PE of 8...is very mean.
Expect a bounce tomorrow if the markets hold. |
They need all the recent acquisitions to bed in and pay down some debt before even thinking about more acquisitions. I think the rising debt is definitely a factor behind the latest sell off. They shouldn't really be paying such a high dividend, but can't really cut as this would really hit the share price - so yes a bit boxed in. |
My tuppence worth on why it's heading down;
Debt is on an ever rising trend - net debt up to just under £80m at 31/10.
Over half of their FCF is going on the dividend + interest expenses.
I think the dividend needs to be right sized to suit their strategy, they are trying to be a buy & build income stock in a high rate environment, I don't think they can be both.
They appear boxed in re. future acquisitions and based on the equity performance since the last raise I'm not convinced there will be much appetite for further £30m+ equity raises.
Cut the divi, get the debt paid down, go from there IMO. |
thanks Dr B. agree booker supply much larger units.
so it could be the biggest fish in the pond.
how are all these buyouts being financed?
ever since my disaster with conviviality retail, i am always wary of mid-market co's expanding too quickly. but right now does look good value. share price history shows that it can move quickly when it wants to. from memory there were quite a few tips / news articles before the rapid rise up to 400p last year. |
Not sure if it's anything company specific - a lot of sharp fallers today especially retailers. CARD was down about 5% last time I looked and Greggs had also tanked. KITW results were fairly unexciting, but not too much wrong with them and they look a bargain at these levels. |
It has been trending downwards since September but when I read the Results I thought it would recover some of that lost ground. I've not sussed why it's down today. |
Underlying EPS was 30p. I think the adjustments look fine - mainly relate to acquisition costs and amortisation - happy to use the adjusted figure. |
There aren't any big players - mostly smaller regional suppliers, which suits their buy and build model. Booker has been cited before, but they work with much larger stores and don't really compete in the same space. |
it is trying to take over others to consolidate the market, rather than wanting to be taken over. i have to say, i don't know who else are the big players in this market.
happy with the results other than the huge share options granted. ceo was only promoted from coo a year or so ago.
chart not looking too good though, 250p seems to be on the radar, and below that there is quite a drop.
think mostly the drop is the usual uk mid-cap apathy at play. the wider uk market does seem to be changing though, which offers hope. |
Would say achieving 32p EPS next year from 22p will be tough |
Its does and its going to be cheaper again after today. Presumably there is something that I have missed thats causing the drop. I would say an issue is with the TU they issued a statement "inline with management expectations" which is something I hate with a passion. Why not just state the actual numbers, rather than leaving it open to what those expectations are? I know you can sometimes find the figures via brokers etc, but thats not always easy (or free) to do
I've added a few here today. I sold some at 380 previously, so I am buying those back, this has been a share that I have generally timed well, a rare exception for me |
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