Keras Resources Share Discussion Threads

[rec0very stock] 01/8/2018 20:32

"Let Mr Lamming get on with promoting the Calidus resources and let Mr Reeves do the same in Australia."

"I want to see my interests, i.e. Calidus, promoted."

"I want to see him spend his time and our money on promoting Calidus, assisting DR."


Implication pretty clear. Don't use words if you do not mean them.


Russell has no active role to play in Calidus. As CEO of a major shareholder he needs to keep his own shareholders informed of progress. He revamped the KRS website to include the live value disconnect graph. What more do you expect him to do?

"let it be a sideline by a lower grade employee perhaps"


And you call me patronising! You clearly did not do your research very well. KRS only has 3 people Russell, Dave and Brian (82 with 10 active directorships).

"Calidus 100% chance of success (IMO)". You clearly know nothing about the risks in mining. CAI is still an early stage explorer. Things are plodding along nicely, but they can come to a screaming halt very quickly. What do you think could happen if they were to dig up some aborigine bones and artefacts? And there are a whole host of other unforeseeable events that could cripple them. One trick ponies are always a high risk.

I had a long discussion with Russell about why the market does not recognise KRS. The fact of the matter is KRS is not and never has been a ramp stock and I prefer it that way. I invest in shares where the management have real skin in the game and are focused on delivering real shareholder value. The morons who invest in ramp stocks may think they are Warren Buffett but they all lie about the massive losses they suffer.


As you have time on your hands, what are you doing to raise awareness of how undervalued KRS is just on CAI stake? I have not seen you at any of the GMs talking to the directors about how to improve things. I thought the annual report reporting a significant profit and massive discount to NAV would wake things up, but the reality is KRS, even though it is minimising spend to conserve cash, needs money from somewhere to survive to Jun 19. There is no realisable value in the CAI stake until the shares come out of escrow. Why tie up money for 12 months when the chances are you can get in shortly before and potentially in or after another placing. Would you still be saying Togo should be left to the office cleaner if in 6 months the bulk sampling is a success, the DFS is released with an NPV of £125M and it is all systems go with CAPEX, OPEX and a management fee all provided by the end customer in return for a long term favourable offtake deal? Do you not think that making the market aware of that possibility might go some way to getting the true value of KRS recognised?


I am afraid your opinion that even after the bulk sampling deal "Togo say 5% chance of success" is well wide of the mark. How many other companies do you know that have managed to pull a deal like the bulk sampling off? - end customer takes all the risks and pays all the costs including a management fee. I do not underestimate the problems that still lie ahead with Togo; I have worked in Africa. However the value that could be delivered would turn KRS into a company that the market would have to take notice of. Why don't you discuss all this with Russell?

[dunkelmann] 01/8/2018 19:14

RS I am quite aware of Keras and the history with respect to Calidus. As part of my valuation simulation I went back through every news release and communicated with DR. Yes I may only be a shareholder since November last but I don't need to have been here since day dot to analyse the company. I am up to date too and need no reminders. Keras may a small portion of my shareholding but being retired I have the time to look in depth. Frankly it is my sideline but I still expect it to perform.

With respect to the duties of directors, neither do I need a lesson. I was a director and owner of two companies, one of which operated out of the Cambridge Science Park in the technology arena. I have worked with millionaires, government ministers and directors of plcs. I imply nothing; you infer in error. So please don't patronise.

[rec0very stock] 01/8/2018 18:48

dunklemann,

We all buy and sell shares for our own reasons. As you are relatively recent, naturally it is CAI that attracted you. CAI is the main story at the moment. It is plodding away nicely and whilst nothing is guaranteed in this game, there is every reason to believe that there will be a resource in excess of 1MOz announced around Christmas with further exploration upside and that around the time KRS's shares come out of Escrow in Jun 19 a viable PFS will be on the streets. KRS will have the remaining performance shares converted to ordinaries and we will get them distributed to us in just under 12 months time. At that point I would expect the CAI shares to be trading between 5 and 6c.

Togo is a bonus on top of CAI. My view is that if nothing has happened by the time the CAI shares are distributed, KRS should be shut down, as there would seem little point continuing to pay PLC costs. However I think you underestimate just what a bonus Togo would be. The overall value of it could far exceed anything we would get from CAI. More importantly it could deliver significant near term cash flow - no more placings to keep the lights on, money to pursue other projects and in a few years a dividend! I would not put figures on it like zhockey, but he is absolutely right that the recent news moves it from being a possibility to being a probability.

You seem to imply that the main job of directors is to promote the share price. I see the main job of directors as being to run the company so it delivers real value for shareholders. Dave is doing that at CAI and Russell is doing that at KRS. What he has managed to negotiate on Togo is pretty miraculous in the current climate. The only real fly in the ointment remains the useless Togo government. If Russell does pull this off, then I am going to have to apologise to him next time I see him for the hard time I gave him at the AGM.

[zhockey] 01/8/2018 16:40

Well anyone shelling out $1.5M must be serious and confident that there is a path to production.

For me Togo Mn has gone from 25% to 75% CoS based on this news.

[dunkelmann] 01/8/2018 14:49

I never bought into Keras for Togo, ever. Therefore I want to see my interests, i.e. Calidus, promoted. This company is from my perspective a dichotomy.

If Togo were spun off into a separate company, would you invest in it to the tune of well over 80 grand? For that investment I want to see a proportional effort by RL based on the chance of success: Togo say 5% chance of success (I don't know), Calidus 100% chance of success (IMO). So were I on the board, I would be expecting to see high level employees spending most of their time furthering projects with a high degree of success.

Togo may come off, and may even come off spectacularly. But without demeaning RL's skill, I want to see him spend his time and our money on promoting Calidus, assisting DR.

If Keras is to pursue Togo, then let it be a sideline by a lower grade employee perhaps. Keras may not be taken seriously if it is regarded as a penny ante effort in an obscure African country, with a weird share redemption mechanism in an Australian gold explorer.

Let's us first at least sort out the obscurity of Calidus shares. As a damning conclusion, even GGP shareholders won't buy us and look at the comparison twixt Greatland and Calidus!

That's why so negative ZH, not about the tactical achievement, but the strategy.

[zhockey] 01/8/2018 14:05

Why so negative on Togo when Russell is making such good progress?

Raising $1.5M to fund the PoC without debt or dilution was a fantastic achievement.

[dunkelmann] 01/8/2018 07:33

I have zero expectation of anything out of Togo. Calidus is the only reason I bought into Keras, it being a proxy that not many share buyers understand.

Frankly the continuing sorry saga with Togo is a shadow over Keras. How many would be invested and what would the price be if there were no Calidus? I wouldn't have touched it with a bargepole. Let Mr Lamming get on with promoting the Calidus resources and let Mr Reeves do the same in Australia.

This is small reflection on the management who should have split the assets into two companies. One might sink into obscurity and one will flower briefly then die.

[zhockey] 31/7/2018 22:15

Maybe they'll issue a mobilisation RNS shortly.

[rec0very stock] 31/7/2018 19:11

I am afraid the market really is not aware of KRS at all. It just is not a ramp stock. Those of us who have been in a long time have already filled our boots with cheap shares. I expect the Q&A session is an attempt to get a bit more wider market interest going.

Russell said the contracts would be placed late Jul and it is now the very end of Jul. Whilst he may not want to issue a separate RNS just to confirm He has done what he said he would do he could have tacked it on to today or yesterday's RNS. It is important when trying to get market recognition to be seen to have done what you said you would do, especially as there have been so many false dawns with Togo.

[zhockey] 31/7/2018 13:17

I'm very surprised that the willing shown in the Togo RNS didn't trigger a rerate. One day...

[rec0very stock] 30/7/2018 19:43

Basically a dmtu is the amount of ore that contains 10Kg of metal. A 1% ore would weigh 1 tonne. So multiply tonnes by the %.

To value it properly you need to do a DCF to get an NPV.

"Based on work conducted to date the Company is confident that Nayega will provide positive cash flow through the rapid development of a low-capex, 250,000tpa open pit, 38% manganese product operation."

Making a few assumptions, because we do not have the DFS, the NPV over a 10 year mine life is about £125m. There are other deposits there that could be proved up and the original plan was to generate cash for a few years then invest in a plant to produce much higher value Ferromanganese, but I do not recall them ever publishing any economics on that. Overall the whole thing could well be worth around £500M.

Not bad as a freebie on top of the 100% upside we already have from CAI.

[zhockey] 30/7/2018 18:21

So how many DMTU do we have?

How do we convert 14Mt at 12% to dmtu?

[rec0very stock] 30/7/2018 17:05

We really need to see the DFS, but past claims were Nayega could produce sub $2 per dmtu FOB Lome. Currently Mn ore is $5.91 FOB Port Elizabeth.

The key question, which Russell won't be able to answer, is when does he need to raise more cash. He may be able to answer whether any of the bulk sampling money will come to KRS - there was mention of management fees. If the market were to recognise the see through value of CAI plus add something for Nayega then just maybe some of those 200m warrants would be exercised raising money when we need it rather than just before the CAI shares get dished out to shareholders in just under 11 months time.

[zhockey] 30/7/2018 15:24

Has anyone ever worked out the in situ value of Nayega?

13MT @ 12.4%, say 10% for 1 million tonnes of Manganese.

1Mt = 2200 lbs @*$1/lb = $2.2Bn ???

*Can't find a recent firm value for raw manganese.

[zhockey] 30/7/2018 11:39

Come on then, what questions can we ask?

[stockriser] 30/7/2018 08:00

Lots of newsflow in near future ;-)

"In parallel, further geological work has defined a continuous working of over 1km on surface that targeted a chert/quartz
vein that on closer inspection shows excellent continuity at depth and represents a high priority target for additional high-
grade resources. A programme targeting this area will commence in the next 2 weeks with a 2nd rig and will include a
large portion of diamond drilling to enable a selective grade to be reported.”

[zhockey] 30/7/2018 07:15

Are KRS going to RNS the Calidus news?

[zhockey] 26/7/2018 09:54

Not bad for 41 months. Also he kept all the shares and paid the tax in cash, don't see that very often on aim.

[edgein] 26/7/2018 09:18

Well at least Brian got his payment at mid price so no discount.

Regards,
Ed.

[zhockey] 25/7/2018 08:31

I wondered if those synergies were of the potential acquisition type.

[rec0very stock] 23/7/2018 18:31

Zhockey,

When used in relation to mergers, synergies are management speak for job cuts. That is not the case here and I suspect all that is really being said is the deal is mutually beneficial for both parties and possibly hinting at a JV to take the main project forward.

My guess is that the end user is someone who struggles to get a reliable supply of Mn at a predictable price and both parties would benefit from the delivery point being closer to West Africa than other sources ie I think the end user may be European rather than Chinese.

If the contracts do go ahead as stated, bearing in mind we are nearly at the end of Jul, then it is a massive show of confidence by the end user who is paying for it (but no doubt gets the Mn for free / not very much) in KRS, the project and the Togo Govt actually granting the licence. It will also show the Togo Govt that KRS and the end user are serious about getting the project moving and all the Togo govt is achieving by dithering is less employment for its people and less money in royalties.

I am not overly surprised by today's pitiful market reaction. KRS need to do what they say and let the contracts and then they need to do some decent PR to make the market aware that they are 100% undervalued just on CAI and this little baby comes for nothing in that. It would also be good if they could get the DFS out the door, so the market can see just how much the overall project would be worth.

[novicetrade68] 23/7/2018 14:25

Fantastic news to have arranged this third party financing, they sure have taken their time, but now at last there is some progress. Pretty confident there will be a point now this year we'll be seeing more demand for the shares, also with the special divi coming up later next year.

[zhockey] 23/7/2018 08:23

Recovery - what do you think those synergies are?