Kennedy Wilson Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 04/3/2017 20:20

Ta; although even as a holder, I had to suppress a guffaw at:

"...We estimate a 65 per cent probably of a bid for Kennedy Wilson Europe [in the next 12 months]"

Not 64.9% or 65.1%?

[jeff h] 04/3/2017 15:22

Takeover speculation:-

[mad foetus] 01/3/2017 12:49

I think this is a very good buy, hold and batten down the hatches type of stock. Surprised it is so low when the dividend if 5% and well covered. People often forget just how big KWE is.

[hpcg] 26/2/2017 14:08

Only just looked through the presentation. Main positives are the risk profile and the effectiveness of the capital recycling. The distribution of assets and liabilities are smooth - no big bumps such as tenant concentration, lease expiration, refinancing, location or even the currency holdings of the cash. On the flip side growth will be muted, and I don't think we will or should see a dividend increase for at least a couple of quarters. They have managed to halve interest rate risk over the year, profit effect of -£1.5m for 100 basis points rise and -£3.8m for 200 basis points.


Performance Fee; Notes 31
I got confused by the 29 million line item in the consolidated cash flow statement for performance bonus. This was actually the actioning of 2015s plan, which was the purchase of shares in the open market. So the cash flow situation is more positive than I thought as this line item will be zero in twelve months time.

[djderry] 24/2/2017 08:53

Solid,positive results, let the Brexit chips fall where they may(or should that be May), KWE is continuing to deliver on all fronts.

[spectoacc] 24/2/2017 07:37

Agreed, happy with that, not that I've read all 40 sections! A large, covered divi, decent NAV, and not too aggressive gearing are all positives.

[mad foetus] 24/2/2017 07:19

On first reading look a very decent set of results. Income increasing, 48p divi secure, 20% discount to NAV. Think this should be trading north of £11

[citymohawk] 12/1/2017 13:41

SpectoAcc - You hit the nail on its head with Dublin. There are too many reasons for this to be worth over £11. Will watch.

Thanks CJ.

[contrarian joe] 12/1/2017 13:09

Sterling weakness,the perceived outlook for uk property quite poor,on my watch list too.

[spectoacc] 12/1/2017 13:01

End of buyback, as @mf spotted, seems to be reason for it returning to a lower trading range.

Can't say I'm too fussed, happy to sit on it for the yield & discount.

Last I looked, c.2/3rds UK exposure, c.1/3rd Europe, with quite a bit of that in Dublin (seen as Brexit beneficiary). Weak £ will have also helped NAV a little.

Price moves been very similar to eg LAND, BLND, GPOR, but not nearly as similar as those 3 have been to each other! Try plotting them over eg 1yr.

[citymohawk] 12/1/2017 12:39

KWE jumped back up on my list today :)

I haven’t looked at it again yet, but I presume the EU jitters are the reason for the downward trend?

CM

[mad foetus] 30/11/2016 10:33

Italian vote could be really important: if it goes against the EU will have to consider major changes to survive. It could be those changes allow the UK to stay in the new EU, it could be that the EU flounders (and would that mean London becomes even more attractive?). I can see ways it could be very positive for KWE, though the Euro looks overvalued as it is, and so our ex-UK property could suffer a drop in sterling value.

But agree, where else can you buy 5% yield at a 20% discount? (well, NBPE perhaps...)

[spectoacc] 30/11/2016 10:01

Yes buyback done for time being. Not sure the Italian vote will have that much effect on KWE, but plenty of uncertainty elsewhere.

KWE a value/discount/divi holding for me.

[mad foetus] 30/11/2016 09:58

Well, is that the 100m spent? I was doing some rough calculations and I think they would have made at least 20m from buying shares and cancelling them, so it should increase the NAV by something like 18p per share. It's all guesswork really until we have visibility on property values, but for now the attraction is surely the 5% yield, though if the Italians lose the referendum that could cause severe uncertainty.

[spectoacc] 17/11/2016 08:24

XD today I believe? But fair point - although my hope is that with £100m gone from the market, the share will ultimately find a new level higher. Remember that if it goes up too much, they buy fewer/don't buy at all, so aren't "chasing" it in that regard. (You can, of course, make that same argument on the way down if they aren't there, so I take your point).

[mad foetus] 17/11/2016 07:50

Bizarre that the share price isn't rising despite the chunky buys every day. Makes me wonder what will happen when they stop...

[langostino] 04/11/2016 08:56

According to Spanish press reports KWE is already negotiating to sell on their Puerta del Sol property

hxxp://www.elconfidencial.com/empresas/2016-11-04/kennedy-wilson-renta-corporacion-venta-puerta-del-sol-9_1284649/

[spectoacc] 04/11/2016 08:32

Odd that they didn't bounce with the other REITS yesterday - market seems to have it both ways with KWE, & both ways are negative.

Also happy to sit on them for the divi.

[mad foetus] 04/11/2016 08:30

Results as expected. I'm happy to pick up the 48p dividend and wait to see what happens with commercial property. Maybe when we have inflation at 3-4% next year and bank rates at close to zero things will be clearer.

[spectoacc] 04/11/2016 07:34

"The team has delivered strong operational performance in the Period across our leasing activities, where we continue to beat valuers' ERVs, and on disposals where we are selling ahead of business plan and previous book values. Our diversified portfolio remains well let [95%] delivering robust cash flows with good lease lengths and plenty of value enhancing asset management opportunities. "

[mad foetus] 28/10/2016 10:58

KW also pay most of their fees in shares. They have lots of skin in the game

[hpcg] 28/10/2016 10:18

They have bought back 3.4 million shares, or 2.5% of pre-buyback float. This is an amount not to be sneezed at. Prorata we can expect the full hundred million to cancel approximately 7-7.5% of the shares. This should provide scope for income distributions for remaining shareholders to increment.

Next update is in a week, Friday 4th Nov.

[spectoacc] 28/10/2016 08:46

Gearing & TER two things I've not yet bottomed on KWE (1% ongoing charge but TER considerably higher). Thought about flogging a few today, with REITs all weak ex KWE thanks to buyback. But recalled they've significantly upped the divi, ie plan to pay out 48p this yr, a yield on current share price of c.4.7%. "Others weak" isn't a good enough reason to give up that sort of yield.

HL reckon ongoing charge 2.91%, yield 4%, gearing 213%, none of which tally with the below, but I'd like to know why they're wrong.

From last Half year:

"Kennedy Wilson posted its half-year results for the six months to 30 June on Friday, with a 5.1% increase in adjusted NAV per share to 1,233.8p.
The FTSE 250 firm also reported a 60% increase in dividends paid of 24.0p per share, for a total of £32.6m of dividends paid in the period.

It declared a quarterly dividend of 12p per share, up from 10p.

Net operating income rose to £78.7m, from £58.4m a year ago, although net profit after tax almost halved to £78.7m from £149.3m.

Adjusted earnings improved to £36.2m from £31.0m, leading to a rise in adjusted earnings per share to 26.8p, from 23p.

During the half, the board said it raised a further €150m to its 2025 euro bonds, increasing the issue to a benchmark size of €550m on a ten-year term, meaning 89% ofits euro balance sheet is now hedged.

Kennedy Wilson claimed a low weighted average cost of debt of 2.9%, with 88% of debt fixed or hedged, and a long debt term of 6.0 years with a loan-to-value ratio of 41.8% within the target range.

"These strong half-year results demonstrate the team's ongoing ability to deliver robust underlying profits from a secure and diverse £3.1bn portfolio," said board chairman Charlotte Valeur.

"As such, the board is pleased to announce a further 12.0p per share dividend to be paid in Q3-16, on track to deliver 48.0p per share annualised target for 2016, a 37% increase over 2015, and reflecting an attractive dividend yield of 4.9%.

"Following the result of the EU referendum, the board takes comfort in the strong financial position of the business with significant cash liquidity and low levels of capital commitments supported by robust operating metrics," Valeur explained."

[spectoacc] 25/10/2016 10:27

Good spot, thanks. Solid tenant, single break, 14yrs.