Kennedy Wilson Share Discussion Threads

[killing_time] 24/4/2017 20:13

Was feeling really smug this morning as this shot up, as I had only topped-up into my isa on Thursday. But after the dust has settled I am now not so sure about how I feel about having the dividend drop by 2%.
I think we are being sold a bit cheap with estimated NAV currently at 1,233p.

Need to get my head around this, KT.

[kazoom] 24/4/2017 14:37

KW Holdings have opened down about 3.5%. So somewhere in the middle effectively.

[djderry] 24/4/2017 13:25

I understand that KWe was more or less an outreach of Kw,I already own shares in KW.I think they (kW) are getting KWe on the cheap.I want more!

[jeff h] 24/4/2017 12:26

So the speculation came to fruition:-

Jeff H4 Mar '17 - 15:22 - 200 of 222
Takeover speculation:-

[kazoom] 24/4/2017 12:07

Not long before we find out anyway. ;-)

Certainly KWH are getting KWE for less than the NAV but for more than "the market" thought it was worth.

If the market prices/caps before the deal were meaningful then KWE shareholders are getting a bigger slice of the pie than they "deserved" on the other hand KWH shareholders are getting less.

1110 could well be a good buy price (I honestly don't know) but I think that would be because either one or both companies were undervalued in the first place or because there are actually good synergies/efficiencies to be had. I honestly don't think it's because there is an arb between the market price and offer price, but as I say we'll find out soon!

[spectoacc] 24/4/2017 11:02

@kazoom - doesn't it come down to the NAVs, and the relative discounts they trade at? KW Holdings are getting KWE at less than NAV, at a deemed offer price of 1174p.

[hpcg] 24/4/2017 11:01

kazoom - like mf I have added some at 1111. I actually think KW can move higher on the open. Don't forget that the deal is at a discount to NAV, and for KW unit holders there is a chunky increase in the dividend, even if it drops for KWE holders. The discount allows for a 5% currency swing, to 1.344. I think a purchase at around the 1110 mark has a small potential upside and a remote chance of downside. Currency risk is if anything a positive for dollar holders, especially as for the time being the EUR looks like it can strengthen.

I happen to have quite a lot of cash at the moment so that is part of my motivation, I wouldn't be trading out to move in, but I think it is a good short term home. I will ponder long term once I've looked through the KW portfolio. Looking forward, for those who don't know, there is no US withholding tax on dividends paid into a SIPP, 15% other accounts.

[kazoom] 24/4/2017 09:58

I'm pretty sure that there is NOT actually an arbitrage opportunity between the current price (c.1110) and the apparent merger price (1174).

Until and unless any synergies etc. kick in then the merger is a zero sum game.
So if the KWE shares have risen (effectively because they are getting the "better" end of the deal) then the KW Holdings shares will fall to balance - and if you do the sums it comes out to around 6%.

So expect the KW Holdings shares to open later in the states at around 6% down. and the revise KWE value in the merger will be c. 1110.

Maybe a little higher if the market has some faith in the value add of the merger, but I doubt it will be 6% at this early stage.

[mad foetus] 24/4/2017 08:40

Specto,In a previous life I did corporate law in Jersey and it is nailed on, especially as KW own so many of the shares in KWE. The only risk would be if the shareholders didn't want it, which isn't likely

[spectoacc] 24/4/2017 08:33

@mf - surprised it's not trading nearer the terms too. OK, no counter-bid, some currency risk, and vagaries of US quote. But agreed merger so looks fairly nailed on.

[mad foetus] 24/4/2017 08:18

I've actually topped up at 1110. Still a 6% discount on the final takeover price and a dividend to come in a couple of weeks. When the market is high that is a good deal for somewhere to park money.

[spectoacc] 24/4/2017 07:38

This has come sooner than expected - a nice Monday morning present!

[mad foetus] 24/4/2017 07:18

Ha, merger at a 20% premium, hope you held on dj!

[mad foetus] 29/3/2017 11:06

hxxp://kennedywilson.eu/media/press-releases/2017/135-new-apartments-launched-at-pioneer-point-ilford/

[djderry] 20/3/2017 17:17

Thank you for the kind words md foetus (my first time speaking to a foetus!),as regards trading,if I can't foretell what the market/stock will do in the next few years,there is not much point in me speculating on what they will do in the next few months/weeks/minutes.

[mad foetus] 18/3/2017 09:07

Don't worry dj, I've got lots here and am relaxed. It is quite fun to trade as well, the lack of stamp duty means you can buy and sell and make beer money if you can be bothered. This is criminally undervalued, if you buy and hold here you won't go wrong.

[djderry] 17/3/2017 13:33

Added again during week,I've spent tens of thousands on these, easily my worst performer,apart from Providence,Cattles and the many others I have painfully tried to forget(although one should try to remember and learn from one's (many) mistakes)! I think of them as returning 5% annually while on a circa 30% discount to NAV,perhaps I can make back the losses over 50 years?!?

[mad foetus] 17/3/2017 08:53

Btw, Spanish and Irish economies now really motoring. Italy still a basket case, but our euro exposure is generally in the right area.

[hugepants] 16/3/2017 09:45

I don't disagree. Worth noting the current share price is at a 7% discount to the recent share buyback price.

"Completed £100 million share buyback of 9.8 million shares at an average price of 1,020 pence per share, representing a 17.7% discount to Q3-16 adjusted NAV per share"

[mad foetus] 16/3/2017 09:30

I sold some last week, made a near 10% turn in BRWM and bought back here today. This will move up sharply at some point.

[hugepants] 16/3/2017 09:25

I thought this may have risen a bit today after the results of the Dutch referendum.
KWE's portfolio is 44% Europe (Ireland,Italy,Spain) and 56% UK.

[asmodeus] 13/3/2017 11:38

They are recommended in this month's Investment Trust Newsletter. I am in now.

[bulltradept] 13/3/2017 07:51

Might bounce today..

[hugepants] 06/3/2017 12:42

Agree this is a very good value property stock. Also it's only about 7% above the post brexit referendum price for some reason whereas most others have moved much higher. Not as cheap as UAI which is still on 33% discount but I think worth buying for a bit of diversification.

[mad foetus] 04/3/2017 21:11

Yes, but good news none the less. and JP Morgan chase reiterate a target of 1325: hxxps://marketexclusive.com/analyst-activity-j-p-morgan-chase-co-reiterates-overweight-on-kennedy-wilson-europe-real-estate-plc-lonkwe/76259/