Kennedy Venture Share Discussion Threads

[ileeman] 25/10/2016 09:42

Market waking upto this. Added another 100k at 4p yesterday aswell btw.

Lithium play is going to be huge.

[mikeh30] 21/10/2016 15:34

Tempted to top up

[ileeman] 21/10/2016 15:28

The numbers the mine is going to be pulling is crazy and lithium potential, cap at the moment £6-£7mil should be 2-3x that possibly alot more if the lithium plays out.

Averaged up another 150k at 3.9p

[ileeman] 21/10/2016 13:54

Just read the previous RNS and it states full production will be at 15000 aiming for 15 tonnes tant concentrate.

15 x $128k (Tant $128 per kg) = $1.9mil per month

Take away costs = $1.1mil pre-tax per month

Currently at 15000 full production but not sure on the current tant conectrate....

On full production with 15 tonnes tant concentrate with KENV owning 75% of the mine = about $750k pre-tax profit per month for KENV?

[ileeman] 21/10/2016 10:42

So they are on 15000 tonnes full production as we speak, so producing 9200 pounds of concentrate...is that correct?

[mikeh30] 21/10/2016 10:37

Yep it's a stonkin game buy

[ileeman] 21/10/2016 10:28

@Mike

Thanks that was the information I was looking for. That is significantly lower costs and significantly more profit than I anticipated, also very good to know that they are getting way over the current prices on Tant.

"Chairman Giles Clarke says operating costs (including adviser fees) are estimated to be $30 per pound, implying significant pre-tax profit margins."

[mikeh30] 21/10/2016 10:21

Copied from earlier thread:""A buyer has already been signed up for the entire production, namely an undisclosed US electronics manufacturer. They are paying $80 per pound for the next five years; Kennedy is already smiling as the tantalum price is currently less than this amount at $75 per pound.The Q2 2016 target of 5,000 pounds per month multiplied by $80 per pound equates to monthly revenue of $400,000, or $4.8 million on an annualised basis. When you convert the latter figure to pounds at current exchange rates (£3.18 million) and measure against the present £6.8 million market cap, it means the shares are effectively trading on a mere 2.14 times near-term sales.By Q2 2017 it is hoped the mine will produce 9,200 pounds per month. On $80 per pound selling price, the miner would generate $736,000 a month or $8.8 million annualised.Chairman Giles Clarke says operating costs (including adviser fees) are estimated to be $30 per pound, implying significant pre-tax profit margins.""""

[ileeman] 21/10/2016 09:55

Ok thanks I will let you know if I get a response.

Once we know what their costs are, I think they said they had extremely low costs if I recall in an RNS, then we can gauge their profit....could be a very very healthy profit indeed.

[paleje] 21/10/2016 09:30

Yes I could definitely have figures wrong because they're taken from different sources at different times, it's why I've asked PH for clarification, he's right there in the middle of it so it should be straightforward. I've contacted him before and he seems willing to give plain answers to genuine questions. If I get it I'll share it, good luck getting a response.

[ileeman] 20/10/2016 19:26

"It is expected that production will now ramp up to an initial target rate of 10,500 tonnes per month, estimated to produce around 5,000lbs Ta205 per month in the second quarter of 2016"

about 50% TA205

[paleje] 20/10/2016 16:41

From RNS 03/08/15:-

"It is anticipated that the first phase of production, commencing in Q3 2015, will see a build-up of throughput at the course recovery plant to treat up to 10,500 tonnes per month; estimated to produce around 5,000lbs Ta205 per month. The second phase of the development programme would focus on fines recovery which should increase throughput to around 15,000 tonnes per month and output of 9,200lbs Ta205 per month by mid-2017. The Directors expect that the costs of production will be amongst the lowest in the industry. An independent study has confirmed the estimated resource of 843,000t grading 490ppm Ta2O5."

Using the numbers from that as a rough guide, I'd say from the 15,000 tonnes monthly we're probably producing about 3,500kg of Ta2015 which, at the $128 price google quoted would mean close on $450k monthly. Annualises at $5.4m.

In pounds about £4.5m and our operating costs are very low I think less than 50% so for a £4.7m market cap very attractive. All very approx so dyor (and maths).

Lithium carbonate possibly from Q2 next year icing on the cake.

Ok iLeeman let us know please if you get a response I'll do likewise.

[ileeman] 20/10/2016 12:40

Yea that was most likely on the lower rate of production.

I have also emailed KENV to gauge profit on that revenue. Would also be interesting to find out just how much premium they can charge for being in a conflict free zone.

[paleje] 20/10/2016 12:38

Cheers.

I think the error is from mixing tonnes with kgs perhaps.

Notwithstanding that though, if they've achieved the higher rate (sharesmag did show a low and a high) then they've done it very early and the numbers are still good. It needs some clarifying and I'll contact PH later if I can. The sharesmag text is below.



Shares Mag 08 Apr:-

AFTER A MINOR delay, Kennedy Ventures
(KENV:AIM) has now made its first
shipment of tantalite concentrate from
its Tantalite Valley project in Namibia.
Investors haven’t yet cottoned on to
the fact that Kennedy will soon be
generating an estimated $400,000 of
monthly revenue, or $4.8 million on an
annualised basis. This run-rate is expected in
the third quarter of 2016.
In just over a year’s time that figure could
move to $8.8 million annualised revenue by our
calculations as production ramps up. That is
almost the same as the present market value of
the business ($9.1 million or £6.4 million). The
shares are outstandingly cheap at the moment,
hence why we are confident our Play of the
Week trade will be significantly in profit once
the stock gets on investors’ radars.
The revenue figures are ballpark estimates,
as Kennedy is not allowed to reveal the
exact terms of its sales agreement
with an undisclosed US electronics
manufacturer.
Operating costs (including adviser
fees) are estimated to be less than half
its selling price, implying significant
pre-tax profit margins for the group.
The figures in half year results reported
on 31 March 2016 were meaningless as they
covered a period before the start of production,
hence no revenue. However, as broker Shore
Capital notes, ‘the company dropped a
potentially very tantalising tidbit, saying that
investigations into lithium potential at the
Tantalite Valley Mine had generated “very
exciting results”.̵7;
SHARES SAYS:;
We believe Kennedy could experience a
significant re-rating as production ramps up, so
buy now before the secret is out. (DC)
K

[ileeman] 20/10/2016 12:30

Could be higher than $128/kg

From mine aquisition RNS "It is intended that the tantalum produced by Aftan would be conflict-free and the Company would anticipate that a premium to tantalum from conflict areas could therefore be charged."

[al101uk] 20/10/2016 12:07

I would assume any price would be based on what the market rate was at the time of the offtake agreement.

[ileeman] 20/10/2016 11:56

@pale

They ramped straight upto full production of 15000 which has only taking place since the last RNS, sharesmag probably taking the lower production rate back in April.

Google = Tantalite Ore USD/kg 128.61

[paleje] 20/10/2016 11:50

iLeeman,

Can I ask where you got the $128.6 figure from please?

The resulting annualised revenue would seem far higher than the upper rate target (for 2017) they gave to Shares Mag back in April which inferred revenue of ~$8.8m. I prefer your number but it just seems too high.

[ileeman] 20/10/2016 11:14

15000 tonnes per month x $128.6 = $1.9mil per month

with nothing else taking into account from the companies assets, exploration, cash etc

£6mil cap is insanely cheap.

[sian] 19/10/2016 20:16

This extract from 03/10/2016 RNS ......"Full commercial production at the new higher target rate of 15,000 tonnes per month is expected to be reached during next week and first shipment of tantalite concentrate to Aftan's offtake partner is anticipated to take place in the second half of the month, and twice per month thereafter".

We should have an RNS in the very near future.....

[cougar99] 19/10/2016 14:10

Well at least the bid has gone up so far today ....
I assume AGM will be in December?

[cougar99] 11/10/2016 23:42

In the words of Yazoo - the only way is up .....

[sian] 11/10/2016 18:15

Lots of potential for a re-rating here.....production ramped up.....possible lithium asset.....very close to revenue producing. I am expecting great things from this little company......

[qs99] 11/10/2016 13:51

perked up a bit?!