Kenmare Resources Share Discussion Threads

[ukgeorge] 21/3/2024 08:53

Seems like a bargain down at £3 a share.

[stemis] 20/3/2024 10:25

Not sure there is much new in the results. Dividend of 56.04c is a cost of $50m, in line with what they said on 17 January - ("We expect total 2023 dividends to be approximately $50 million.”).

Ilmenite production guidance for 2024 is unchanged.

On slight note of caution is - "To the extent possible during this period, we will aim to pay dividends towards the top of our stated payout range of 20-40% of underlying Profit After Tax. However, additional shareholder returns will need to be balanced with a requirement to maintain a strong balance sheet to fund the programme."

Dividend in 2023 was 38.2% of PAT

According to 17 January statement, capex in 2024 should be $224m ($189m development projects, $6m improvement projects, $29m sustaining capex). Net cashflow in 2023 (exc capex, debt repaymnents, share buybacks but assuming same dividend as 2023) would be $103m. So it would need $121m from debt. That looks tight.

One other thing though is that debtors in the last 2 years have increased $61m on roughly the same turnover. I assume that's a reducing use of factoring. Presumably they could call on this if needed?

[parknas] 20/3/2024 08:03

Production down.
Dividend up.

[robmcelf2] 17/3/2024 17:26

Results due on Wednesday.

[robmcelf2] 16/3/2024 15:18

Seems like active shareholder could have flexed muscles and persuaded Carvill to retire?

[the original goldbug] 27/2/2024 20:02

Will the capex help them expand production or is just necessary to maintain production?

Will current production levels fall during the capex roll out?

Is it all being debt financed?

Are BHP still their main competitor on the South African side of the Mozambican border?

How quickly is supply reduced by more marginal producers in the event prices continue to fall?

Will the capex insure their rightful place as a first quartile operator?

I'm very interested in your opinions to these questions.

[return_of_the_apeman] 27/2/2024 16:00

Fwiw, I had an answer back from ii, their sipp does not offer treaty rates for the Irish Market and the 25% WHT on dividends can't be reclaimed

From their wording, I expect it will be the same for all uk sipp and isa providers unless anyone can tell me otherwise

[stemis] 27/2/2024 09:02

Spending $23.6m buying back shares at 422p isn't looking so clever now with the share price at under 300p, falling prices and a capex bill of $300m+ ahead of them.

I owned these shares many years ago when they got themselves into all sorts of financial difficulties. Have they learned the lessons?

[jpegman] 22/2/2024 19:59

Thanks. More fool them at current PEG and div trajectory

[creditcrunchies] 22/2/2024 18:19

Resource stocks in general especially metals excl gold. It's basically an indicator that global demand has dropped and rate cuts are coming

[jpegman] 22/2/2024 15:15

Can anyone explain why the market is so pessimistic about KMR? Insanely low PE... value trap?

[robmcelf2] 17/2/2024 10:18

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2024/02/17/banker-kenmare-hired-decade-ago-to-thwart-takeover-holds-key-as-some-investors-seek-sale/

[scepticalinvestor] 07/2/2024 16:37

Down she blows

[return_of_the_apeman] 07/2/2024 08:57

The new $200Mil RCF has a current rate of interest of 10.16% (SOFR (5.31%) + 4.85%)

I am not sure effectively borrowing at 10% to pay us a dividend is sound, otherwise the only winners would seem to be the Irish government with the 25% WHT, unless I am missing something?

[petomi] 06/2/2024 18:22

Note that for some reason the RNS feed on this site has not that I can see picked up two recent RNSs:

1 Feb re Analyst site visit (presentation on KMR website)

hxxps://files.q4europe.com/news-pdf/1901/Kenmare2018tf_15999546.pdf



6 Feb, today, re committed new debt facility (agreed subject to documentation etc) with enhanced RCF replacing current term loan:

hxxps://files.q4europe.com/news-pdf/1901/Kenmare2018tf_15999546.pdf

Statement from Tom Hickey, Finance Director:
“The new $200 million RCF supports our planned capital programmes in the coming years. It removes the amortising payments of the
existing term loan, whilst increasing the size of available facilities and extending the maturity profile from 2025 to 2029.
The new facilities continue our strong relationship with existing lenders and provide enhanced financial flexibility through the revolving
credit structure and committed five-year term.”

This may increase scope for mainataining a respectable level of dividend (even if current payout has to be cut) durimg the major transition to mining at Makata and the move of WCP A.

I will certainly be looking carefully at any fresh analyst comment

GLA

[scepticalinvestor] 30/1/2024 08:02

Final purchase at 304.Now just a waiting game

[return_of_the_apeman] 29/1/2024 12:47

Good dividends are not a certainty given the last company update and their latest policy below

Dividend Policy
In April 2023, Kenmare’s dividend policy evolved to a targeted payout ratio of 20-40% of profit after tax, from 20% originally. This revised dividend policy is based on a multi-year view of the company’s performance and funding, while maintaining conservative gearing. The revised dividend policy is subject to (i) any exceptional or single year impact; (ii) market conditions, balance sheet position and capital requirements; and (iii) higher cash balances likely to be maintained until capital development projects completed.


I have only been able to find wording from HL saying they are unable to credit back the 25% DWT for SIPP clients

Anyone been lucky in their SIPP with ii ?

Tia

[scepticalinvestor] 29/1/2024 12:44

Well added another 10k gbp worth this am - 308 just too low imo

[benjonesinvestments] 29/1/2024 11:26

Does anyone have latest data on ilmenite prices? Always very opaque

[spectoacc] 29/1/2024 10:45

I seem to have ridden the tiger up and back down on KMR, but can see no reason to sell when the divi's so good.

Execution/single country risk as always with KMR, but what isn't in the price?

[parknas] 25/1/2024 16:27

Probably my fault for buying more.
From Davy's today.
Kenmare
New forecasts and revisiting the outlook

We update our Kenmare forecasts following the Q4 production report last week. Changes reflect a softer pricing backdrop in 2023 and latest volume and capex guidance. Current capex may appear high but is low relative to the company’s increased earnings power. The outlook is positive and supported by recent industry updates.

[scepticalinvestor] 25/1/2024 16:19

Anyone out there?!

[scepticalinvestor] 25/1/2024 15:06

Damn stamp dutyThieving tories

[scepticalinvestor] 25/1/2024 13:35

Got a few 5000 at 314 oddTrade not showing

[spectoacc] 19/1/2024 09:50

Feel as if I'm missing something on KMR, but not sure what. Guess we're back to the CapEx execution risk for a while, but they came through in spades last time.