Kefi Gold And Copper Share Discussion Threads

[taxlosstone] 19/10/2020 16:57

I think that most of us believe that there's great potential for a substantial re-rating on what someone on here described as the Lesser Spotted Funding Deal.

I remember doing a very similar exercise years ago on this very same issue where I calculate the working days left until the "guidance" date expires (9 in this case) & suggest that there's an 11% chance of a Company-making announcement tomorrow. If not tomorrow, then it's a 12% chance on Wednesday, 14% Thursday, 16% Friday, 20% next Monday, 25% next Tuesday, 33% next Wednesday, 50% next Thursday & the greatest opportunity is 100% nailed on next Friday. I think that previously I added the phrase "what could possibly go wrong"?

Well, it did go wrong. :-(

So I'll ask again "what could possibly go wrong this time"? ;-)

[robjm66] 19/10/2020 16:53

I look at it that Ethiopia has a lot of room for expanding their economy look out Ireland!

[topicel] 19/10/2020 16:25

Spoilsport.

I'm reminded of my other life advising composer's and authors on royalties and potential awards for their hit records (or those they were involved in).

They'd say to me, but we had a massive number one in Ireland and I'd say but that is one fifteenth the size of the UK - it ain't gonna make you rich!

What matters to us though is whether it matters to the Ethiopians, and as Rob suggested, whether that will actually mean they (as a jurisdiction) and the locals (if still involved) and the wider African banking fraternity all want a growing mining sector in Ethiopia...

Anyway Union, you've long been a cautionary bellwether here, so presumably you have a view as to the chances this gets done this time...or not. I have a hunch Harry has left enough wiggle room and CV-19 is leaving all and sundry plenty of excuse material, somewhat better than tools stolen from the shed anyhow!

The days are counting down, for the umpteenth time.

Topicel

[unionhall] 19/10/2020 15:26

That puts it at just over a quarter the size of Ireland for comparison purposes....

[robjm66] 19/10/2020 15:22

hxxps://newbusinessethiopia.com/economy/ethiopia-gdp-surpasses-100-billion-says-pm-abiy/

[belfastboyo] 19/10/2020 14:53

Katsy, there are extensive RNS's and Kefi presentations on the full financing arrangement for TKGM. The final agreement involves full closure of hundreds millions in bank debt plus new equity and off take finance..NONE of which is to come from Kefi shareholders...so in the event that the deal is concluded as planned there should be no need for further Kefi equity raise required for TKGM.

[robjm66] 19/10/2020 14:48

hxxps://www.ena.et/en/?p=17717 (think date at top is accurate and 2013 date wrong for obvious reasons)

"Moreover, Abiy noted that mining is the top growing sector with 91 percent growth over the last budget year and the government has prioritized the sector as it has the potential to hugely contribute to the entire GDP and economic growth."
...

The numbers stack up for TK, kefi want mines in Ethiopia so comes down to do you believe the Ethiopians do as well..

[katsy] 19/10/2020 13:36

Yes thanks, aware of the gap, let's see.. Harry better strike whilst gold is in favour, gold should be in a bull cycle till around 2026, provided the NWO hasn't wiped us out before then.

[theaviator] 19/10/2020 13:31

Pmd you on that other Katsy over weekend re techs. You get it ok?

[katsy] 19/10/2020 13:26

We don't know the terms of any finance deal and whether existing shareholders will be heavily diluted or not. Really get uncomfortable on any stock where investors start counting profit on shares that haven't appreciated yet. Not saying it's not going t happen but don't spend your profits yet until it comes.

[belfastboyo] 19/10/2020 13:02

Hi Jaylett, so mathematically if there is a 300% to 400% upside to let's say 2.5p and a 50% downside and the odds are 50/50...then I would take that bet as on the upside I see 2.5p x 4 (so 10p versus 2.5p x -50% = 1.25p)...and that's assuming it's a 50/50 bet..I put the odds of a "done deal" at 4/5 versus 1/5 a "not yet done" announcement...but I totally recognise I may be wrong on all counts

[theaviator] 19/10/2020 12:57

However Jaylett, this is the time for miners and for the next 12-18months am sure so a better "bet" than others imho

[theaviator] 19/10/2020 12:48

Any share is a risk. 100% not for everyone.Bear in mind Shiller average sitting at 31 as well. I'm sitting cash apart from a few punts on miners.

[jaylett] 19/10/2020 12:44

I'm curious about this highly derisked investment. From where I'm sitting there's a shedload of risk, and I say that as a large holder of Kefi shares.

It will be materially derisked if and when a full finance package is announced that includes actual funding reaching a Kefi bank account. Until then, the risk of delay and dilution is very real, hence the chance of either a 3/400% rise or a 50%+ fall in the near future.

Everyone is entitled to believe what they like, but pretending the risks don't exist is just silly and very short-sighted.

[digger2779] 19/10/2020 11:36

Topicel - I have sent you a PM re using Interactive Investor.
Looks like we are in for news guys. Will it be good or bad? Whatever it is you can be certain I will find something to whinge about.
GLA and have a nice day. I'm off to the beach.

[robjm66] 19/10/2020 10:29

Market cap?


sorry forgot link

Sun Peak’s gold-copper Shire project in northern Ethiopia is located in the Arabian-Nubian Shield, a region that is highly prospective for precious and base metal deposits but has had very little modern exploration. This is changing as these developing mining jurisdictions stabilize and update their mining codes, enticing exploration investment from majors and juniors alike.

At a fully diluted enterprise value of $67 million for an early-stage explorer, the stock may not be cheap, but is worth watching as more results come in.
While this appears quite rich for an early-stage explorer in an emerging mining jurisdiction, we also note that the market is currently strong for both gold and copper stories, and many juniors with low-quality projects and management teams have enjoyed 200-300%+ share price gains in this current bull market.

hxxps://www.moneyweb.co.za/news-fast-news/new-currency-notes-gets-1m-ethiopians-into-banking-system/

Over the past four weeks, almost 1 million previously unbanked Ethiopians have handed in their two-decade-old banknotes, according to the central bank. In exchange, they were given a bank account from which they can draw the new notes. The regulator is trying to deter cash hoarding that enables corruption and illegal trading to thrive, and escapes the tax net.



“and it will also encourage savers to plunge funds into gold bullion.”

[belfastboyo] 19/10/2020 10:12

Assuming the finance deal is completed imminently then according to Kefi's most recent Aug 2020 presentation Kefi's market cap (at 2.1p then) is ONLY 14% of projected NPV cashflows on TKGM alone so price per share at full value equals 2.1p/.14 so 15p per share....of course that market cap would NOT include (zero value) for anything >60% share, underground, license areas, JQ or Hawaih….this share is going to the moon imho...hopefully, my loyalty as a very LTH will shortly be rewarded...come on Harry get it done at last.

[riotinted_specs] 19/10/2020 10:09

4p is an absolute feeble expectation post funding. It is more likely we could get to 4p Pre-funding news. This has been 15 years in the waiting. KEFI right now is a highly de-risked investment right now and It is grossly undervalued. We should expect a full rerate 6 to 7p very quickly and continual rises likely

[deanmatlazin] 19/10/2020 09:07

News re: funding can come out any time now. Am looking for 4p and beyond post funding result.

[scotty1] 19/10/2020 09:02

Things hotting up 1m just gone through above offer 😉

[lhoskins] 19/10/2020 07:54

Fingers crossed for a big week. Come on Harry!