I would suggest a useful "rule of thumb" is about half the profit. |
Once the debt is repaid what guesses do we have for how much dividends will be paid per share? |
Nobody because it isn't 0.64 |
TW, a staunch supporter, it takes 2 days for dimwits to catch on.
Crackin short from 0.64, but who will take the bet? |
Quite remarkable.
One wonders how these POS keep going for years longer than they ever should, then you read some of the comments from holders (LTH, natch) and all becomes instantly clear. |
I like the fact were solely concentrating on one project. I've seen many companies on aim, junior miners with stakes in different places get stretched financially. It does nothing for the share price as it looks risky, taking on debt. Having a world class project that is funded seems almost mythical. Forget the jam tomorrow stuff, it never materialises. Concentrate on the tangible asset we have. |
 “Final approvals from the second bank are subject to remaining conditions including Ethiopia formally ratifying its already approved Country Membership. KEFI is targeting finalisation of these formal approvals and of definitive documentation this quarter. This is expected to be a significant positive catalyst for the shares”
“Harry Anagnostaras-Adams with Federal State Minister of Finance Dr Eyob Tekalgn Tolina and
President African Finance Corporation Samaila Zubairu, Addis Ababa last week”
“Based on this Business Plan, Tulu Kapi is expected to boast a levered, post-tax NPV5 of US$688m at a gold price of US$2,100/oz, at the start of construction. Taking KEFI’s expected 80% stake in the project, and assuming an exchange rate of GBP:USD1.275, this amounts to an NPV5 of 7.1p/share. At US$2,600/oz gold, the NPV5 is US$1,046m, representing an NPV5 of 10.8p/share. These figures are 11-17x the current share price. As Tulu Kapi is developed over the next two years and risks are mitigated, the share price would be expected to increase towards the NPV.” |
“Broadly, benchmarking the Saudi Arabian assets against recent African gold M&A deals suggests a valuation of KEFI’s 15% stake of US$50-78m. This represents 1.0-1.6x KEFI’s current market capitalisation. This could provide significant funding flexibility for Tulu Kapi or other projects.”
“Upside scenarios based on a 15% increase in resources at each project could underpin a valuation range of US$67-89m.”
An updated Mineral Resource Estimate is expected in the next three months. Hawiah A new Mineral Resource is expected in the next three months Jibal Qutman.
“Recent M&A transactions The estimated valuation range for Gold and Minerals is based on the current resources of Jibal Qutman and Hawiah, and the estimated valuations of recent M&A transactions in the region” |
On a different notehttps://cryptoslate.com/blackrocks-bitcoin-etf-climbs-to-top-1-in-record-breaking-211-days/ |
Think the main problem could be that Artar decided that kefi was simply too small to keep up with what they wanted done especially with its focus split between two countries.
I would not be surprised if Artar got approached by another mining company with much deeper pockets that could put tens of millions or more into exploration and could put the money in now. |
Ten million is a lot to find when the whole company is valued at 35 million!I find it hard to believe that you find it hard to believe that issuing a few billion more shares at the required discount is unpalatable?! |
Find it unbelievable that ten million can't be easily raised to stay in the Artar partnership and then funded it on an ongoing basis. We don't need the cash, we need to develop the future business in SA. Terrible decision. |
Even if they sold their remaining percentage and become a little less stressed financially, it doesn't stop them going back into Saudi at a later date and certainly with a lot more knowledge and cash, hopefully!!! |
Maybe a big issue not been talked about is its more in the companies hands in Ethiopia rather than Saudi where where it was a junior partner.
Another factor is though the Saudi government has been supportive kefis success is more critical to the Ethiopian government than it is to the Saudi one hence Harry being made an ambassador, the listing, the law changes, the wide consortium.. |
Is going over of the top not lying? |
Posted on Telegram kefi Q&A
Q, What has been the cost of investing in GMCO and in TKGM,the book value and the market value?
A,A: Unlike many other companies, KEFI writes off all expenditure in its accounts until the application for a Mining Licence which reflects a decision being made reflecting a development commitment . There is no “right” or “wrong” - this is just our policy which we believe conservative for statutory reporting.
Therefore at KEFI, book value in the statutory accounts is always less than historical expenditure which usually involves extensive exploration, feasibility study, permitting, financing and other costs.
And, asset market value would be expected to vastly exceed both the historical cost and the reported book value in the statutory accounts - if exploration is successful and/or development studies are positive.
On the other hand, as we all know, stock market values in each different jurisdiction varies on a daily basis from any of these numbers due to any number of factors.
In that context, we provide the following statistics with respect to each of GMCO and TKGM.GMCO:
Cost was c. $12 million since 2008, accounting book value nil, indicated market value $50-80 million based on the opinions of research analysts who have issued reports.
TKGM:
Cost was c. $50 million since 2014, book value $35 million, indicated market value $495-835 million based on the opinions of the research analysts who have just issued reports.
Posted 14 November 2024
.....
My lse post.
Numbers are going to skewed due to..
1.All the work done on TK before kefi effectively got it for a knockdown price in a fire sale.
2.TK being further along than the Saudi projects.
3.The high percentage share kefi has for TK.
4.Probably value given to licence areas does not reflect future Sauid potentail potential.
Its possible that kefi will not have such a high percentage of further projects in Ethiopia especially if most of the money comes from Ethiopia at project level from the listing. Though obviously you can argue that means faster progress making it more a Ethiopian success story and kefi not having to raise money at parent company level.
The Saudi projects value would have inevitably gone up as they got further along and Hit full DFS status. Will interesting to see if kefi doing further work in Saudi to increase the price it will get for the areas or just sells them as quickly as possible. |
Yes, Harry has been digging himself and all shareholders into a very very big hole. |
Have they started digging yet? |
At least TK is jorcd. |
#6681/2,
For the purpose of clarity and openness.....
"This report has been commissioned by KEFI Gold and Copper and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by KEFI Gold and Copper." |
4p would be acceptable to me. HA needs to get the funding completed beyond doubt once and for all. |
I think the thing to hold on to is the NPV, with gold at $2,600 (which it very nearly is, in the Kefi presentation of 6th November 2024, is 10.5p per share.
Now we won't get to that price until we are producing, probably not until we have a full year's production, which means 2027, so perhaps mid 2008. But that is only 4 years away; and I will be very surprised if we have not increased that NPV by then.
We are by way of paying ALL the bank debt at the end of the first year; so there will then be many millions available for dividends.
10.5p is less than I had hoped for - but fully acceptable to me. How about everyone else? |
TK is the first to be developed though, Saudi is a few years yet.
HA didn't need to be wedded to Saudi with both time and money if he was going to get the confetti machine out for years to continue with both projects and then give Saudi away on the cheap. I don't want the Saudi projects to be sold but HA has left himself no choice.
He has very little bargaining power because he's managed to run down the company funds and has overseen a huge drop in share price because he's issued so many shares previously. I pity long term holders despite only being a fairly recent one myself with an investment that's more of a punt. |
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