At least TK is jorcd. |
#6681/2,
For the purpose of clarity and openness.....
"This report has been commissioned by KEFI Gold and Copper and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by KEFI Gold and Copper." |
4p would be acceptable to me. HA needs to get the funding completed beyond doubt once and for all. |
I think the thing to hold on to is the NPV, with gold at $2,600 (which it very nearly is, in the Kefi presentation of 6th November 2024, is 10.5p per share.
Now we won't get to that price until we are producing, probably not until we have a full year's production, which means 2027, so perhaps mid 2008. But that is only 4 years away; and I will be very surprised if we have not increased that NPV by then.
We are by way of paying ALL the bank debt at the end of the first year; so there will then be many millions available for dividends.
10.5p is less than I had hoped for - but fully acceptable to me. How about everyone else? |
TK is the first to be developed though, Saudi is a few years yet.
HA didn't need to be wedded to Saudi with both time and money if he was going to get the confetti machine out for years to continue with both projects and then give Saudi away on the cheap. I don't want the Saudi projects to be sold but HA has left himself no choice.
He has very little bargaining power because he's managed to run down the company funds and has overseen a huge drop in share price because he's issued so many shares previously. I pity long term holders despite only being a fairly recent one myself with an investment that's more of a punt. |
You are stretching it a bit Taxloss. As there is no hole in the ground there cannot be anyone standing at the top.
If you are suggesting (as I think you are) that I think Harry is a liar then you are absolutely wrong. I do not think he is, and I have never seen or heard him tell a lie/ (or read one from him for that matter. Yes, he has been over optimistic at times, but that goes with the territory IMHO.
And I would rather have an over optimistic CEo than an under optimistic one any day. |
Remember the Irish definition of a gold mine? "A hole in the ground, with a liar standing at the top". So let me get this right, it is not in this case because there is no hole in the ground. You do not dispute that there is a liar standing at the top. Now that is amusing. |
Barrick's small VHMS in Saudi was 46.28 million tonnes @ 1.79% Cu Hawiah's resource is 29 million tonnes @ 0.89% CuNot exactly world class IMHO |
 Extract of Catberts post from lse
"Based on the information provided, there appears to be significant expansion potential for the underground resource at Tulu Kapi:
The current underground Mineral Resource (below 1,400m RL) is reported as 1.2 million tonnes at 5.69 g/t gold, containing 220,000 ounces. However, this is considered preliminary and focused only on the area directly below the open pit.
KEFI expects to "significantly expand the potential underground resource". The company notes that gold grades increase with depth at Tulu Kapi.
There is potential for the high-grade lodes to extend 600-800m further northwards, under the UNDP lode. This could potentially triple the underground resource.
KEFI anticipates the possibility of over 1 million ounces in the underground resource.
The last drill hole in the deeper areas returned 90 meters at 2.8 g/t gold, indicating mineralization continues at depth1.
KEFI plans to complete a Definitive Feasibility Study on the underground mine during construction of the open pit, along with extensional drilling at depth.
The company's business plan includes introducing initial underground mining to increase production, potentially lifting gold output to 179,000 oz per year average over 7-8 years, and ultimately potentially beyond 200,000 oz per year1.
In summary, while the current underground resource is modest at 220,000 ounces, KEFI sees potential to expand this significantly, possibly to over 1 million ounces, through further exploration and development of the deeper and northern extensions of the mineralization. The company plans to actively pursue this expansion potential alongside development of the open pit mine."
These considerations are separate to the other possible lodes adjacent to the site which were subject to the prior loss of these areas to a competitior favoured by the then minister of mines.
TK in other words has the capacity to double in size with just the underground plus we might recover our lost cow which wandered off to our neighbour's field but was always our cow and will surely and rightly be returned to us in due course.
Harry thinks its a 10 bagger already. Plus the underground, plus the lost cow. Plus there are other areas in Ethiopia which we have exploration licences for. Where would you put your $10m?
Me personally, I'd like to have my cake and eat it. Wouldn't we all?
But here, I'm happy with the call Harry and our BOD has made."
...
Personally even with all that still think the ball has been dropped with Saudi though.
Katsys post about the world class assets in Saudi made me chuckle, now we are likely going to sell them off they are suddenly world class. That's about the only laugh I had today though. |
I guess it is difficult for commercials to visualise. Well let's hope for this final funding for TK to be done and dusted eventually.Best thing you could probably do for your Grandkids Goatie is buy some bitcoin but wait until next bear market low even though it'll likely pump hard from here. They will thank you for it. |
Because there is not a hole in the ground. |
A gold mine has a certain invisibility about it. Remember the Irish definition of a gold mine? "A hole in the ground, with a liar standing at the top". Obviously not in this case, but bank managers are human (allegedly). Why is it obviously not in this case? |
gisjob2,
Your "maybe" (6686) was not possible!
Kefi were involved in Saudi Arabia several years before Ethiopia came up.
I retrospect it would have been better to have concentrated on Saudi Arabia and not got involved in Ethiopia at all, but that is with the benefit of hindsight.
At the time I thought Ethiopia was a good idea, so I do not think it fair to criticise it now.
We have been plagued with bad luck in Ethiopia, but then thats Africa for you. |
How much time and money has KEFI invested over the years on the Saudi projects?
What will be the sum total of the returns be when the 15% is sold ?
Maybe if HA had concentrated on TK in the first place and not spent time & money in Saudi there wouldn't be so much share confetti.
HA has been quick to appear on paid for videos in the past, maybe HA will explain himself in the next day or too. Can't wait! |
 0.603p / Kefi Gold launches strategic review of GMCO joint venture
(Sharecast News) - Kefi Gold and Copper announced a strategic review of its stake in the Gold and Minerals (GMCO) joint venture in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, which it holds with majority partner Abdulrahman Saad AlRashid & Sons (ARTAR).
The AIM-traded firm said that as part of the review, it would forego a $10m investment to maintain its 25% interest, resulting in a reduction of its stake to 15%.
Kefi said it was also evaluating the potential sale of its remaining 15% stake in GMCO, with proceeds from any future sale potentially providing further capital for the company.
The board said the decision reflected Kefi's strategic priority on majority-owned projects, particularly the Tulu Kapi Gold Project in Ethiopia, which was nearing financial close, as well as its significant exploration pipeline in the region.
ARTAR had solely funded GMCO's recent exploration activities, covering Kefi's share, with the dilution based on the historical cost of investments by both partners.
Kefi said it believed any potential sale of the 15% stake could yield a premium, though there were no guarantees.
GMCO, which had spent around $80m on discoveries and feasibility studies, was preparing for significant growth and had outlined a two-stage development plan for its key projects - the Hawiah Copper-Gold-Zinc-Silver and Jibal Qutman Gold deposits.
Initial development would focus on open-pit mining of shallow oxide ores with carbon-in-leach processing, followed by further exploration and expansion to access deeper resources.
Additionally, GMCO said it was set to expand its regional exploration efforts, drawing on its extensive experience and data from 15 years of exploration in Saudi Arabia.
Over the next six months, Kefi and ARTAR would assess strategic options to maximise GMCO's growth and value, ensuring alignment with Kefi's focus on its majority-owned projects.
"Both of Kefi's host countries, Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia, have recently pivoted towards an improved environment for mining," said executive chairman Harry Anagnostaras-Adams.
"And the gold price is at all-time highs. In that context, Kefi considers it important that the two operating partnerships play to their strengths and capitalise on the market dynamics in each country.
"Today's announcement of the strategic review at GMCO reflects that the partners will, over the next six months, review various scenarios to determine the best way forward for the joint venture to build on its successful discoveries and feasibility studies."
Anagnostaras-Adams said that in the meantime, the Kefi board believed it was in the best interests of shareholders to remove the outstanding exploration liabilities with a consequential reduction in the company's stake in GMCO.
"Kefi has made it clear that the priority for its capital is to now optimise shareholder value via majority-owned projects." |
Market no likey. Wonder what TW's spin will be on it. Should be good for a laugh.
Am disappointed as only invested because of Saudi all those years ago but then they lost the ink for the rubber stamp, then lost the rubber stamp and built the confetti machine. |
Personally and am speaking level here, why not just focus on the task at hand and that is Ethiopia and getting this bloody project dug up. If the asset is as astounding as portrayed there should be no issues. Maybe he is trying to close on dinac deals himself I don't know but I truly don't understand why so difficult if what's in the ground is really there. |
Probably Artar then who Artar wants for a partner likely Ivanhoe as they have been looking at kefi areas that are near them already. |
The sale of the remaining 15% will be at open market value. There has been talk of GM&Co listing on the Saudi SE and that might offer an opportunity for Kefi to cash in. The reference to a pipeline of opportunities in Ethiopia suggests firm assurances by the Ethiopian government as regards the award of ELs applied for and (some) partially explored. Kefi had to sell down one of the projects to enable it to pursue at least the other.
The disposal of the remaining 15% could realise big bucks: "AMAK has similar but smaller deposits and has a mkt cap of $1.7bn" (slide 36 of the last presentation). 15% of AMAK would be about £200m (3.3p/share). GM&Co (according to the RNS) will motor ahead to get open cast mines going at both JQ and Hawiah to harvest the near surface oxidised gold ore whilst it firms up the plans for the longer-term projects. Sounds like they do have a prospectus in mind. |
hxxps://www.edisongroup.com/research/swapping-assets-for-cash/34133/ |
Edison's report out on Kefi today -
G&M worth more than its book value
Removing KEFI’s obligation to pay US$10m to maintain its stake in G&M at 25% will be a welcome relief for the company. However, the impression that this values the remainder of the stake at US$15m is misleading, as the shareholders’ agreement regarding dilution for contributions/non-contributions between the founding shareholders is based on historical costs of investment, whereas the sale of a shareholding to a partner or a third party is on an open market basis. Our last valuation of KEFI in March 2024 was 2.21p per share. Adjusting for the interim passage of time, one year’s delay to Tulu Kapi, one year’s gold price inflation and slightly different financing terms, our updated valuation (all else being equal) would be 2.31p. Reducing KEFI’s interest in G&M to 15% lowers this to 2.15p. Selling its residual interest for US$15m would reduce it further to 2.02p per share. However, using a long-term copper price of US$10,000/t, we calculate a value for KEFI’s 15% stake in Hawiah (based on potential dividends discounted at 10% pa) of US$32.0m and one for Jibal Qutman of US$17.2m, for a total of US$49.2m, or 0.62p per KEFI share, while still leaving its interest in Tulu Kapi intact. A discount may be applied to this total to reflect the projects’ stages of development, although this remains to be seen and depends upon the partners’ confidence in the project. Our financial forecasts are based on KEFI maintaining a 15% interest in G&M but will be revised as soon as a deal is concluded.
Valuation: Potential 48.9% internal rate of return
We calculate that KEFI’s residual assets could generate average free cash flow of c £82.4m in FY27–32 (almost unchanged from £82.3m previously), making average (maximum potential) dividends of 0.59p per share in FY28–34 possible and valuing KEFI at 2.15p per share (cf 2.21p/share previously) fully diluted. At current metals prices, however, this valuation increases to 6.33p now and to 9.27p in FY28 (plus a potential further c 2.25p per share for Guji-Komto), implying an internal rate of return of 48.9% in sterling terms over the next 13 years. Our timing assumes Tulu Kapi starts commissioning in late 2026. |
What sort of goatfoolery is going on here now? |
Just out of interest - who is it that has finally seen the light?? |
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